How many years will it take me to break 3 for the full?

Determined wrote:

Do I really need to get up to 70-80 mpw to have a chance?

No, but 30mpw ain't gonna cut it. You could probably do it at 50mpw if you were semi-talented

Cut and run wrote:

Determined wrote:

Do I really need to get up to 70-80 mpw to have a chance?

No, but 30mpw ain't gonna cut it. You could probably do it at 50mpw if you were semi-talented

Less than that is fine for 3 hours. We are just talking about a 3 hour marathon, that's only 6:50/mi (4:15/k) pace and he is still in his prime almost.

6 months with proper training should do the trick. Focus the first 10 weeks on improving your 10k time, I wanna see you be able to get it down to the low 38:xx range, preferably even 38 flat but that might be hard in just 10 weeks.

Then, do classic marathon training. No crazy mileage - your legs wouldn't be able to handle that - just honest, consistent running with 2 "big workouts" a week (a long run with segment(s) at MP and long, extensive intervals like mile or 2 mile repeats around HMP).

Example marathon plan:

Mo-5 mi easy

Tu-3 mi wu, 6xmile or 3x2mile, striders, 4 mi cd, ~15 miles total

We-off

Th-5 mi easy

Fr-6 mi easy

Sat-5 mi wu, 5-8 mi @MP or 3x3 mi @MP, etc, 5 mi CD, ~15-19 mi total

Sun-5 mi easy

~55 mpw, this schedule is enough to run even faster than 3 hours with average talent. If you would suddenly jump from ur 46 mpw to 70-80 mpw, you would probably just get injured OR if your body is somehow able to withstand it (unlikely) it wouldn't be able to absorb the training load and u don't improve despite higher mileage.

just under 0.0003424657534 years.

With a better coach it shouldn't take more than a year.And you don't have to do 70-80 mpw.

This is a good plan but success at the marathon distance varies a lot among individuals. Never know until you try one, or rather, a few.

OP I was in similar boat and it took me 8 years from the time I started running, or 6 years from the time I broke 1:30 in the half. What I had wrong? Mileage base and weight. You got the second part right already, and you've got the HS background so you can cut off time for sure.

I think within 1-2 years of breaking 1:30 in the half is possible. 6 months? Maybe if your progress is very fast. People get to sub-3 in may ways, for example: they are really fast and not that endurant, i.e. they get worse as the distance goes, but can still squeeze in (e.g. a 17 min 5k and a 2:59 marathon on 40-50mpw) or they are slow and get the proper base (e.g. a 18:30-19:00 5k and yet 2:59) on 60+ mpw.

I was more of the latter, it was easy to run a sub 1:30 half within 2 years of starting, followed by a 3:15 full about 2 years later, but the sub-3 only came in after I dropped weight and averaged 60 mpw for 20 weeks, with just a few long run. Build that strong base first, of 50-60 mpw, then add a few long runs with some MP in (culminating with 10 E + 10 M) and from time to time a mid-week LT workout with longer intervals of 1-2 miles @ HMP.

But don't try to break 3 in your first one, seriously. Do 1 for the experience any time between 6 months from now and 18 months, targeting 3:15 (7:30 pace) or better to get a feel. You don't need to run 10 marathons, but 1 or 2 will help building the experience, with target sub 3 on your 3rd.

Don't listen to super fast guys who say how freaking easy it is as it's "only" 6:52 pace. Anyone can say that. A sub 2:40 is "only" 6:06 pace so what's the difference! Every few seconds is such a radical change in energy systems, and you must feel really relaxed and strong at marathon pace.

Keep us updated!

With Nike, INEOS, or another big corporate sponsor behind you, and touted as "The Breaking3 Project", I dare say you can -- WILL -- be successful, as early as this October in Vienna. Perhaps, logistically, you can join forces with Kipchoge, as he attempts to break 2:00.

Elite Kenyan dopers can pace you...behind an electric car to keep you on time...in low humidity...with a low probability of rain...in an oxygen-rich park...on a flat course. . .and with mostly straight running.

What more could a lad of your non-elite talent want?

Dump your current coach and get someone with a little more knowledge about training.

I will live vicariously through your exploits. PLODDERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!

Thanks! I'm more of an endurance monster, so 50-60 and see where I go.

I'm going to run Cbus, which is fast and flat. Just hopefully not 75'F at race start like in 2017. Forcerunner has posted about that before here.

I'm at 46 and legs feel sharp and I'm all about preventing injury, so slow builds, with a 4th week as a drop-down.

41, 43, 46, 35, etc.

I should do a little more speedwork but for the first 'thon I'll keep it at 3:20 and try to go from there as a baseline.

Don’t be in such a hurry. If you train to improve, and stick with it long enough, you will inevitably BQ.

Qualifying for Boston is not particularly difficult and is still well within the abilities of any experienced runner.

Get the experience and everything else will fall into place.

1:50 isn’t really “nice and easy” for someone who’s latest race was 1:42. Specially if it’s 90F out

You'll never break anything because there is no race distance called "full."

So I recently got under 3 hours, I’m younger than you, but I went from zero running to sub 3 in 3 years, but a substantial part of that time was spent on trail 50k focus.

My real training block was like 18 weeks long and I went from around a 50 on the vdot to a 54. My biggest advice would be to plan a legitimate 18 week training block and get a coach. Yeah it costs money, but having real guidance was the major key for me. I didn’t know a lot of what I was doing, and having workouts given to me rather than making them up was really helpful. I never did more than a 60 mile week, and had 2 quality days per week. One (usually) threshold or sometimes interval workout and then the long run day usually had miles at T or at marathon pace. Pretty standard jack daniels system. You should totally go for it, but getting plan and sticking to it religiously is key, assuming you aren’t injuring yourself.

It worked really well for me and I came out of it really feeling like I had leveled up as a runner (hobbyjogger). But I think you could totally do it!

How tall are you? 134 is pretty light. You're at race weight now. You could massively drop time in your next race.

Don't train in 90F heat either. Run earlier in the day.

You don't need 70-80mpw to have a chance. Personally, 70-80mpw got me under 2:45. Back when I was running 20mpw and overweight, I was running 1:39 halfs just like you.

HIM:

Do I really need to get up to 70-80 mpw to have a chance?

ME:

No, but 30mpw ain't gonna cut it. You could probably do it at 50mpw if you were semi-talented

YOU:

Less than that is fine for 3 hours. We are just talking about a 3 hour marathon, that's only 6:50/mi (4:15/k) pace and he is still in his prime almost.

BLA BLA BLA

~55 mpw, this schedule is enough to run even faster than 3 hours with average talent.

So... 50mpw just like I said.

Determined wrote:

Do I really need to get up to 70-80 mpw to have a chance?

50mpw would be more than enough, i've run several years 2:40-2:43 on 40-45mpw

Breaking3 News wrote:

With Nike, INEOS, or another big corporate sponsor behind you, and touted as "The Breaking3 Project", I dare say you can -- WILL -- be successful, as early as this October in Vienna. Perhaps, logistically, you can join forces with Kipchoge, as he attempts to break 2:00.

Elite Kenyan dopers can pace you...behind an electric car to keep you on time...in low humidity...with a low probability of rain...in an oxygen-rich park...on a flat course. . .and with mostly straight running.

What more could a lad of your non-elite talent want?

Dump your current coach and get someone with a little more knowledge about training.

I will live vicariously through your exploits. PLODDERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!

That was cruel, but fun, so it evens out. I laughed.

To the OP: Do a soft build up to a 3:15 marathon now, then reset and aim for 80-100km weeks the next 3 months. This will suffice if you do 8-10 long runs of around 25-35 km, including 10-15 km of race pace toward the end. It seems plausible you could make it within a year, but you wont know until you try

I think you're in good shape with that running background. I was never a runner (went for 3 mile jogs occasionally). Did my first HM a few years back with a time of about 1:41. Did a couple marathons and finished at 3:40 and 3:34 respectively. This was on 25-30MPW and no serious training. Just easy mileage. Definitely didn't focus enough, but was glad I had those marathons to build off of. Last October I raced an HM with no specific training and finished with 1:28:XX. Then decided to get more serious. From January to May I averaged just under 50MPW and finished Grandma’s in 3:08:XX (was injured during some of the build up). Generally followed Daniels 2Q plan with one long run mixed with MP and one semi-long run with lots of T.

Still have a ways to go to sub 3 but it shows that even a classic hobby jogger with no running background can get close and substantially improve on 50MPW. I approached Grandma’s as a stepping stone race. While the ultimate goal is sub 3, it was great doing a race with “no pressure”—just to see what I could do and not get demoralized if I didn’t reach that goal. So my two cents…

-You probably don’t need much more than 50-60MPW, especially with that running background and especially if you commit to a couple workouts a week.

-As others have said, try to get a “no pressure” marathon under your belt first. Train well for it, but know that it’s not your “goal” race. The marathon is a tricky beast. Lots of things come up that you can’t train for but just need to experience to get better at. This will pay dividends during your “goal” race.

I am 5'2 and 134'', Filipino.

I was overweight when I ran the 1:39 as well (145 lbs. on 10/20/18 or so).

I'm 16 weeks out or so (10/19?) and have run 10-13 mpw for my long runs so far. I'll be at 14 this week, then taper back to 10 for the conclusion of my first 4 weeks. I want to do more than just the standard 20-miler, like 1 or 2 21-milers and a bunch of 17-19 milers to be safe.

I had done about 180 in training for Cap City from 3/9 until 4/27 (a half marathon), then was at 180 again to a 5k in early June, and now have started the 18-week plan (6/10 to 10/19).

Cbus Full is my "no pressure" race. Thank you for helping me look at it differently that way.

3:30 is what my coach online and I said I should use as a conservative goal (I use a local running company and get coaching that way) for my first 'thon. But I know I can go further if I try harder. But I know I need to at least do a baseline.

Forcerunner and BlazeOBrien and a bunch of other Cbus guys have been great here re: advice.