Why Jim Walmsley will make the olympics for USA

Jimmy jimmy wrote:

If he plays his cards right, he is capable of 2:11:30 and a top 3 spot to make it to Tokyo. I think most would agree that if he puts in a solid road marathon specific training block, he can be in 2:11:30 shape.

The reason I think he will be top 3 is looking at Magda Boulet. Shes won western states once or twice I believe, and has had varying degrees of success with other ultras like UTMB (5th). She also ran under 32 on track for 10000m and had lots of success with the marathon making the womens team in 2008. While the situations are slightly different because men's and womens talent pools are different, Jim walms and her look pretty similar on the ultra scene on paper; some blow ups, but generally consistently placing in the top of the fields or winning ultras and both went to D1 college and had success.

The ultra community is definitely a smaller talent pool than the marathon, but Magda proves that not "any decent marathoner" can come in and dominate. She was second at the olympic trials and ended up 5th at UTMB so theres some heavy hitters in ultras. I think JW may be one of those talents in ultras that could really show up in the marathon if he committed 6 months out.

joedirt wrote:

Moo Goo wrote:

Just like Matt Carpenter. More fantasies of ultra slow fan boys.

Yeah, but lets be honest, its not like the marathon is a track race and that it is anywhere near as competitive as shorter distances (or that ultramarathon training mileage is that much different than marathon training mileage). Some of the runners I know that have zero fast twitch muscles (couldn't break 2:00 in the 800, couldn't break 4:30 in the mile, would have a hard time breaking 60 in a 400, etc.) actually did quite well in the marathon later in life because the level of competition is so much more dilute and they were willing to put in the time that most people either do not have or do not care to apply to a task that ultimately shortens their life. The nice thing about running is you will get a definitive answer eventually as a clock is an impartial judge, but it does seem ridiculous that there is this much discussion about someone who is in all reality a 20 something seed based upon his merits.

joedirt wrote:

Moo Goo wrote:

Just like Matt Carpenter. More fantasies of ultra slow fan boys.

Yeah, but lets be honest, its not like the marathon is a track race and that it is anywhere near as competitive as shorter distances (or that ultramarathon training mileage is that much different than marathon training mileage). Some of the runners I know that have zero fast twitch muscles (couldn't break 2:00 in the 800, couldn't break 4:30 in the mile, would have a hard time breaking 60 in a 400, etc.) actually did quite well in the marathon later in life because the level of competition is so much more dilute and they were willing to put in the time that most people either do not have or do not care to apply to a task that ultimately shortens their life. The nice thing about running is you will get a definitive answer eventually as a clock is an impartial judge, but it does seem ridiculous that there is this much discussion about someone who is in all reality a 20 something seed based upon his merits.

Hounddogharrier wrote:

Why folks love Walnsley is he is the X factor. He is not afraid of going for it and risking the huge blow out. It’s a very African and unamerican way to run. Without Walmsley the OT willplay out like this : 30 guys will go out in 2:13 pace. No one will risk breaking away from Rupp. Slowly the pack will dwindle. Rupp will break away at 21 miles , Ward and Fauble will run even splits to go 2:11 and pick up 2 and 3. Basically the rest of the field will have conceded the Olympic spots before the race has begun. Walms, on the other hand, will go out at a near suicidal pace, attack the hills and make folks chase him. Will he stay away.? Can Rupp, Ward and Fauble all gamble he will crash or do they have to bring him in. Walmsley breaks tge typically USA tactic of if you are the 10th fastest try to be 9th. He is all in.

Hounddogharrier wrote:

Why folks love Walnsley is he is the X factor. He is not afraid of going for it and risking the huge blow out. It’s a very African and unamerican way to run. Without Walmsley the OT willplay out like this : 30 guys will go out in 2:13 pace. No one will risk breaking away from Rupp. Slowly the pack will dwindle. Rupp will break away at 21 miles , Ward and Fauble will run even splits to go 2:11 and pick up 2 and 3. Basically the rest of the field will have conceded the Olympic spots before the race has begun. Walms, on the other hand, will go out at a near suicidal pace, attack the hills and make folks chase him. Will he stay away.? Can Rupp, Ward and Fauble all gamble he will crash or do they have to bring him in. Walmsley breaks tge typically USA tactic of if you are the 10th fastest try to be 9th. He is all in.

Runing too wrote:

Hounddogharrier wrote:

Why folks love Walnsley is he is the X factor. He is not afraid of going for it and risking the huge blow out. It’s a very African and unamerican way to run. Without Walmsley the OT willplay out like this : 30 guys will go out in 2:13 pace. No one will risk breaking away from Rupp. Slowly the pack will dwindle. Rupp will break away at 21 miles , Ward and Fauble will run even splits to go 2:11 and pick up 2 and 3. Basically the rest of the field will have conceded the Olympic spots before the race has begun. Walms, on the other hand, will go out at a near suicidal pace, attack the hills and make folks chase him. Will he stay away.? Can Rupp, Ward and Fauble all gamble he will crash or do they have to bring him in. Walmsley breaks tge typically USA tactic of if you are the 10th fastest try to be 9th. He is all in.

This sounds about right.

Walmsley is the new Steve Prefontaine, most famous 4th place at the Olympics. But at least he made it there. Walmsly never will.