2019 National XC rankings/predictions

PacificNeverWest wrote:

Summit could go back to back wrote:

Summit girls winning NXR is the safest pick. They won NXN last year without a senior.

Definitely!

What are your thoughts on the boys?

Kamiakin, Tahoma, and Jesuit will probably be the top boys teams in the NW

NW looks wide open on the boys side wrote:

PacificNeverWest wrote:

Definitely!

What are your thoughts on the boys?

Kamiakin, Tahoma, and Jesuit will probably be the top boys teams in the NW

Arlington can’t be left out!

NExt wrote:

Northeast:

Boys Teams:

1. CBA

2. Cherokee. .

LoL dude. Cherokee won't even be in the top 5 at NJ MOC. Wake TFU.

BunnerRunner wrote:

In the South, returning NXR South champs El Paso Eastwood returns like 5 guys so expect another berth for them, but look out for perennial power The Woodlands. They return everyone from their 4th place NXR South team, and those coaches over there know how to get their guys up to Portland. Individually looking at return champ Jarret Kirk from Flowermound, and a dark horse could be Spencer Cardinal from the aforementioned The Woodlands. Ran decent PRs this track season and was top 10 at NXR South last year

Can’t forget to watch out for South Lake Carroll. They made it to NXN 9 times in a row. A 10-peat cannot be discounted. They are losing some guys and it’s gonna be tough for them to get back, but they always reload, have guys come out of nowhere, and surprise people for many years.

Heartland:

Top boys teams are Middleton, Dowling Catholic, Mounds View, Highland Park

Top girls teams: Wayzata, Edina, STMA

higHLand park is on the rise wrote:

Top girls teams: Wayzata, Edina, STMA

It certainly doesn't hurt that STMA's #1 (Ali Weimer) and #2 (Katie Sigerud) will both be just sophomores in the fall. STMA was the upset MN 2AA XC champion last year (beating Wayzata and Edina), and while they came in 3rd at Nike Heartland to Wayzata and Edina last fall, I can easily see STMA getting one of the top two spots at Nike Heartland next time around, and advancing to NXN.

I also think Sprout will win, but it will depend somewhat on his race tactics. If Nico Young didn't exist, I think he could lead the entire race and win. With Young in the mix, though, I think he's going to need to run a bit smarter. Culpepper has been somewhat disappointing this year, IMO. I know he was ill for Footlocker/NXNR, but to not qualify for either, then run 9:12 at Arcadia makes me think he's more suited for the 800/1600 at this point in his career. Could still be the best collegiate of them all, but I no longer think he's going to pull himself up to Sprout/Young's level. I wouldn't bet on any of them breaking 4 minutes next year, but they all have an outside shot. Strangio doesn't seem great tactically, and has a bit of an injury history. Allred is talented, but not as talented as the other guys and has been hurt most of this year, so I can't see him putting up much of a fight in the fall. Maybe by next Spring.

NXN Prediction: 1. Sprout, 2. Young, 3. Holland, 4. Strangio, 5. Culpepper

About how many boys in the class of 2021 or younger are going to finish in the top 10 at NXN this year? Doesn’t seem like many are.

Nathan Green had the highest soph finish at NXN last year, which was 18th. He was the lone sophomore All-American boy. He also ran the 2nd fastest sophomore 1600 time. 15th overall returning 1600 time based on milesplit.

The 2nd and 3rd best finishers at NXN in the class of 2021 were Mateo Joseph and John Worthy - both from Great Oak. Joseph finished 43rd overall and Worthy finished 53rd overall.

But Joseph has hardly any results from the winter and no results at all this spring. Unless he starts running in the summer again, it could affect his individual finish and his team’s chances to win NXN also.

4th best sophomore finisher at NXN last year was Jacob White from Dakota Ridge. He finished 56th overall.

Judson Greer didn’t make NXN (finished 12th at NXR) but ran the fastest sophomore 3200 time last spring. 20th fastest of all the returners based on Milesplit.

Kamari Miller ran the 2nd fastest sophomore 3200 time last spring. 32nd fastest overall returning 3200 time based on Milesplit.

Colin Peattie and Nolan Topper, both from Bellarmine College Prep in California, ran the 3th and 4th best soph 3200 times. 35th and 40th fastest returning 3200 times respectively based on what is seen on Milesplit.

Colin Peattie ran the fastest soph (8th fastest overall returning) 1600 time based what is seen on Milesplit. His and Topper’s state meet is going to be very difficult to qualify for NXN individually from. Their team could possibly qualify if CA gets an at large or two. I’m sure California will get at least one.

Good point on Nathan Green, except you missed his best performance!

He ran the US #2 all time mile for sophomores this year--4:06.20. Behind Jeff See who ran just a few hundreths faster and ahead of Webb/Ryun/et al. He could definitely be in the mix.

BISHOP HENDRICKEN BOYS

Heartland girls individuals:

1. Grace Ping

2. Lauren Ping

3. Tierney Wolfgram (won’t be allowed to run varsity until NXR since she transferred to Woodbury)

4. Anna Fenske

5. Emma Atkinson

RockAndRoll wrote:

Heartland girls individuals:

1. Grace Ping

2. Lauren Ping

3. Tierney Wolfgram (won’t be allowed to run varsity until NXR since she transferred to Woodbury)

4. Anna Fenske

5. Emma Atkinson

The Heartland girl's race will be very interesting this Fall. I agree that the winner will very likely be a Ping (could be either one I think). A girl who sometimes flies under the radar but I think is also a strong contender for one of the top 5 individual-qualifier spots is Morgan Gehl. She was 8th at Heartland last year, but since 3 of the 7 ahead of her were seniors and another 1 of the 7 (Wayzata's Atkinson) was a team qualifier, Gehl will be the fourth-highest returning individual qualifier. Gehl ran PRs in the 1600 and the 3200 this Spring, and seems very motivated.

STMA Fan wrote:

higHLand park is on the rise wrote:

Top girls teams: Wayzata, Edina, STMA

It certainly doesn't hurt that STMA's #1 (Ali Weimer) and #2 (Katie Sigerud) will both be just sophomores in the fall. STMA was the upset MN 2AA XC champion last year (beating Wayzata and Edina), and while they came in 3rd at Nike Heartland to Wayzata and Edina last fall, I can easily see STMA getting one of the top two spots at Nike Heartland next time around, and advancing to NXN.

A darkhorse girls team that is currently not in position to qualify but could make the NXR Heartland race interesting: Winona Cotter.

They finished 6th last year as a team when they were finally at full strength. Last year their top 5 consisted of 4 sophs and an 8th grader.

Having the Pings and another last year’s top 20 NXR finisher (Morgan Arnold) on the team isn’t going to hurt.

Their #4 and #5 were under 20 last year at NXR but barely. They are both going to need to step up for the team to qualify.

So far, they really have come a long way after finishing 18th out of 21 teams in the Section 1A meet in 2016.

Also, their number of girls coming out for the team is getting close to FM’s. When Grace Ping first joined the team in 2015, there were only 7 girls, including her. Last season there were around 15.

The team could continue to grow before class of 2021 graduates. There was only 1 senior and zero juniors on the girls team last year.

Cotter's #4 and #5 (in whichever order) are Aubrey Williams and Claire Ebertowski. Aubrey has been working hard, and put down faster times (PRs) on the track this Spring. Claire had to run JV last year; she transferred from Winona H.S. to Cotter a year ago. She's now varsity eligible again, and she has also been working hard & running faster times this Spring (and early Summer too). So yes, with the incomparable one/two punch of the Pings, and a very fine #3 in Morgan Arnold, Cotter has significant darkhorse potential at NXR.

Another thing is: Cotter has never won a Class A state title yet. They would have won it last year if Ebertowski was eligible to compete varsity at that meet.

In 2017, they missed it by 1 point.

They will probably be ranked 1st in Class A preseason and pretty much all season, and will try to be the best team they can be and finally get that state title.

Watch for Lasalle Academy to be one of the candidates to get 2nd behind CBA at NXR NE. They return their entire varsity team except for their #3 and #4 and last year after the New England Championships it looked as though they would beat Bishop Hendricken at NXR based on the NEC results (they beat BH at NEC).

And they only lost to BH by 5 points at the Rhode Island State Championships.

They qualified once before, but at that time the rising seniors were 7th graders.

BunnerRunner wrote:

In the Midwest, Elmhurst York returns their entire top 7 from a 3rd place NXR Midwest team, along with Wheaton Warrenville South returning 5 from an Illinois State Championship + 13th place NXN. Individually in the Midwest looking at Josh Methner from Arlington Heights Hersey, NXN and Footlocker all American last year, along with Elmhurst York’s Ethan Kern, also a NXN indv. and Footlocker Finalist.

York missed the 10th straight trip to NXN in 2013. Pretty sad.

They were a better team in 2018 than in 2017 even though there was only one non-senior in the top 7 in 2017 but no seniors in 2018. Pretty interesting.

Pretty clear that Fayetteville Manlius will win the NXR NY boys race.

Anyone know what boys team will get 2nd in that race?

What are the California teams looking to make it?