Predict my 10k time

No question you can PR. 33 is still young. Age hasn't really cost you any time at all yet.

But you've got a long way to go. With your current half marathon time you would be lucky to break 46:00. So you've got to improve 45 to 50 seconds per mile. That's a big leap, but not ipossible with consistent, smart training and weight loss(safe assumption there is some to lose). But it'll take a long time. At least a year of dedicated training, probably more.

I started my old man running phase at age 35. My first half marathon was 1:34 with minimal training. Within 2.5 years I got down to 1:16(where I've hit a plateau). But it took consistent training...like between 2800 and 3100 miles a year. I also lost 20 lbs.

runnER/DR wrote:

No question you can PR. 33 is still young. Age hasn't really cost you any time at all yet.

But you've got a long way to go. With your current half marathon time you would be lucky to break 46:00. So you've got to improve 45 to 50 seconds per mile. That's a big leap, but not impossible with consistent, smart training and weight loss(safe assumption there is some to lose). But it'll take a long time. At least a year of dedicated training, probably more.

I started my old man running phase at age 35. My first half marathon was 1:34 with minimal training. Within 2.5 years I got down to 1:16(where I've hit a plateau). But it took consistent training...like between 2800 and 3100 miles a year. I also lost 20 lbs.

Interesting. I should say my 10k split in the half marathon was 46:30 (I kind of broke down from 15k-20k, but my last k was 4:10). I weigh 119 lbs, 5'6. How much weight do you think I can safely lose? I probably could lose 5 or 6 lbs? I already lost 10lbs in the past 5 months. I definitely don't have a resting 6 pack in normal lighting yet though.

runnER/DR wrote:

No question you can PR. 33 is still young. Age hasn't really cost you any time at all yet.

But you've got a long way to go. With your current half marathon time you would be lucky to break 46:00. So you've got to improve 45 to 50 seconds per mile. That's a big leap, but not ipossible with consistent, smart training and weight loss(safe assumption there is some to lose). But it'll take a long time. At least a year of dedicated training, probably more.

I started my old man running phase at age 35. My first half marathon was 1:34 with minimal training. Within 2.5 years I got down to 1:16(where I've hit a plateau). But it took consistent training...like between 2800 and 3100 miles a year. I also lost 20 lbs.

I disagree that the op couldn’t break a 46 right now. Half marathon time isn’t great but the 10k is a different beast. It’s pretty clear that he can run a 20:xx 5k right now with those work outs. Think that’s worth probably a 44 or so.

new to running 10k wrote:

I had PBs of

mile: 5:05

3000m: 10:36

5000m: 18:48

10000m: 40:55 (1st and only 10k)

when I was younger. Got injured and left running for 7 years. I recently returned and after 4 months of easy running and 2 months of training ran my first half marathon in 1:42. I'm now 33 and thinking that my 10k is a PB I can crack. This is my most recent set of hard efforts

3 x (400, 800, 1200) - at 6:30 mile pace, with 1 min rest between each rep/set

5k easy, but with last mile time trialed on track in 6:00

half marathon race 1:42

13 x 400 - each in 82 - 85, with 1 min rest

What do you think I could do for a 10k and is there any training you'd recommend for it specifically. How far off do you think I am from that 40:55 pb?

From your PBs it looks like your are more of a 1500m runner, the longer you go the worse your times look. For example, a 5:05 mile is a good time and most who can run that fast would run a 3k well below 10:20. Similarly, we'd expect a 10:36 3k runner to run under 39 for the 10k, and under 18:30 for the 5k. So your slowish half marathon time fits in with this. Given that you can run 7ks of speed work at roughly 20 min 5k pace, I'd suspect you could string together a solid 43 min 10k with little extra training. Of your track PBs the 10k is by far the softest. At 33 it will be much harder for you to break that 5:05 mile PB than it would be to break that 40:55 10k PB. If I were you, I'd focus on the half marathon and get that time down to 1:32 or so (about 7:00 per mile). With a solid base and your natural ability to run faster at shorter distances, once you get down to 1:32 for the half, if you revisit the 10k, then you'll probably get close to breaking 40.