Realistic to Think I Can BQ (3:05) With A 3:21 PR?

BQ or Bust wrote:

- I've only gotten serious about getting faster for the past two years but, like I said, never really stuck to a training plan completely (kids, work, etc.; something always became an excuse).

You aren't really close, so you would have a better shot in Fall 2020. But there will always be something to take away your focus and you will probably never make it.

maybe this wrote:

You aren't really close, so you would have a better shot in Fall 2020. But there will always be something to take away your focus and you will probably never make it.

Thank you for your candor.

Given the information provided, it is going to be tough to do this September. You obviously need to run more - sustained 60-70 mpw for your 10 week peak block during training. Two workouts per week is fine but you should every now and then incorporate one of them into the long run - you need a mix of easy/steady long runs and tough long runs. Think fast-finish long runs, where you run the last 5-7 miles of a 16-23 miler at goal marathon pace or faster; these will be tough but well worth it. Also, run at least four 20+ milers in your training cycle (and numerous others in the 16-19 range), with at least one of those around 22-23 miles.

Best of luck.

BQ or Bust wrote:

I've already seen some improvement in my "easy" pace over the past few months as I've dropped 25lbs since January (goodbye forever, beer!). My average pace for them I'm not even thinking about pace has dropped from 9:30-10 to around 8:15. When I push it I can hang on to a 6ish pace for a few miles, but I haven't done that with any consistency ....

Based on this, I think you've got a decent chance. The 25 pounds, alone, will make a huge difference in race day.

Regarding training, maybe consider just one workout per week, with a long run on the weekend, and a medium-long run midweek. Take a look at Pfitzinger's 55mpw plan.

Or, if you like two workouts per week, consider scheduling 9-day "weeks." I had great success doing that a couple years ago (two workouts, a medium-long run, and a long run every 9 days), but it requires a work/life schedule that can accommodate long runs on weekdays.

You might want to take one rest day a week to avoid injuries/overtraining.

Since you ran 3:21 on 40-50 mpw with 2 days of speedwork (ie decent training) and well-developed aerobic system (a bunch of IM 70.3) 3:02 is a giant leap.

I wouldn’t have thought that such a progress was possible for you, but your weight loss is significant, which is a very important factor in the marathon distance.

Drop 10 or 15 min off your half time and go from there

Charlesvdw wrote:

You might want to take one rest day a week to avoid injuries/overtraining.

Agreed.

walter j wrote:

Charlesvdw wrote:

You might want to take one rest day a week to avoid injuries/overtraining.

Agreed.

If your only running 4 or 5 miles three times a week I don’t think overtraining is going to be a problem

nothing about that says to me that you are ready to run a 3:05 or anything close to that. I guess its possible with a really good training cycle, but I think that is asking for a pretty steep improvement curve.

Everyone's a bit different, but I went from a 3:38 (NYC 2014) to a 3:03 (2017) with no PR in-between. I ran slower times in '15 and '16 but the circumstances were a bit unique.

At the time of my 3:03 I was running about 40mpw and my half PR was a 1:20 (as weird as that is, I've always been much stronger at the half).

I since improved my time to 2:59 last year.

I think you are too slow HM wise to run 3:05.

I had a 1:28 when I did 3:07.

But you lost a lot of weight that might help.

I would also think you could benefit from a rest day in the week. More is not always better.

But if not this year you probably get to the 3:05 next year. It is definitely an achievable goal for you.

No, probably not but maybe sometime in the future.

Personal anecdotes don't have a lot of value, but going with the 9-day cycle I mentioned a few posts back, I improved from 3:25 to 3:07 in less than a year. Two workouts, a long run, medium-long run, four easy/recovery days, one day off. Of course, at my advanced age, even the 3:25 was a BQ.

More concerning than your 3:21 marathon is your 1:37 and 1:40 half because it signals you aren’t still in 3:21 shape.

So the real question is can you go from a 1:37 half to a sub 3 marathon this fall, which I think is unlikely (not to say impossible, but unlikely).

I’d focus on a 10k or half for now, and once you get down to 37/38 or 124/126 respectively, then start thinking about sub 3

How did you run a 3:03 on 40 mpw? Did you do mainly long runs and easy running?

Impressive!

No. Try a different hobby

https://www.thesprucecrafts.com/how-to-crochet-for-beginners-979092

1:37-1:40 half is about 3:25-ish for the full. It's a good starting point.

I'm in that bracket right now and think Boston is 2-3 years away.

If I can get my first 'thon down to 3:20 this year, then work on the half next spring, then next fall ('20) I think I can BQ for spring '22.

I went from 3:24 to 2:58 in one year. Some loser on here said I couldn't break three based on my PR. But I knew my PR was soft and I had only trained 25mpw for that PR. I went to 45mpw and easily broke three. Working on 2:37 now with 70mpw.

You lost 25 pounds? You can do this easy. Up your miles a bit and your there.

As others have said, more miles + lower your half marathon. You can get there.

In a year, when I first started running half marathons/marathons I went from 3:24 to 2:54. I started with a spring half in 1:45, dropped that a month later to 1:35, ran short stuff the following summer and then went 3:24 in the fall. After the 3:24, I dropped my half to 1:33 then 1:30 the following spring. I ran a 3:11 marathon. Then I hit 1:26 over the summer and then a 3:03 BQ in September. This is back when I was younger and had no clue how to recover but I ran a half in 1:20 4 or 5 weeks later and then hit 2:54 3 or 4 weeks after that. During this time I probably went from 40-50 miles/week to averaging 70ish. I peaked over 80 for the 2:54.

I would not necessarily recommend all the racing I did but I was really motivated by getting a BQ. I went for it in the 3:11 and was on sub-3:05 pace for a lot of that race. For me, I ran more miles, put in more long runs, but still mixed in 5k/10k workouts and kept chipping away at the half marathon.

I'll say too that the jump from 3:24 to 2:54 was a ton easier than 2:54 to sub-2:45. It took me a few years to then make that kind of a jump. When I cut 3:24 to 2:54, I was basically doing easy runs at half marathon and marathon pace. I was out the door, hammering, to make sub-7's feel easy. That was when I was in college. I would hit my 4, 6, 8, 10 mile loops to some way harder than I needed to (6:20s-6:50s). Now I'm more than content to run 7:30s on easy days if I'm tired but that's what it looked like for me when I was trying to get better. I just wanted to get better so trained more, raced more, ran faster. Should have had more structure but I learned all that later.