I know theres plenty of examples of runners going pro, but running eh as freshman (EX: Pat Casey, 4:58)
What times indicate potential?
I know theres plenty of examples of runners going pro, but running eh as freshman (EX: Pat Casey, 4:58)
What times indicate potential?
Potential? 5 minutes as a freshman. Betting on someone going pro? 4:05.
5 minute freshman mile is a good benchmark - even 4:10 a a senior would be a decent predictor - obviously what's missing here is different people develop at different rates, and an 800/1500 guy will be different than a 1500/5k guy. plenty of people even blossom in college, or post college. If you have some talent and keep at it through high school, then college, and then in your 20's, you never know when the big improvement jumps will come.
CuriousHSRunner wrote:
I know theres plenty of examples of runners going pro, but running eh as freshman (EX: Pat Casey, 4:58)
What times indicate potential?
The expression is “I know there are plenty of examples...”
Freshman year is a crap shoot. In my experience, you can start identifying real talent sophomore year, but you can't be sure till junior year.
I'd say 4:20's as a sophomore and under 4:15 as a junior indicates rare ability. After that, it just comes down to who continues to improve. I ran with a guy who was 4:25 as a freshman, then only improved to 4:16 as a senior... very inconsistent runner who did one year of D1 and quit the team.
In college, I ran with a guy who didn't even start running till he was a junior; ran 9:20 in the 2 mile as a senior, and went on to run as a semi-pro, making the Olympic Trials and placing top 5 nationally on the track.
Point being - high school times identify talent, but to be a pro runner, it's about who consistently shaves off time each year.
CuriousHSRunner wrote:
I know theres plenty of examples of runners going pro, but running eh as freshman (EX: Pat Casey, 4:58)
What times indicate potential?
Your peers who played Little League Baseball are evaluated by their age not by level of academic progress. Some high school freshman are age 14 and other high school freshman are age 16. Take advantage of your youth and continue to improve your 200m, 400m & 800m speed. You can work on your aerobic fitness in your twenties. It is difficult to improve your 200m, 400m & 800m speed in your twenties.
Mr Millenial wrote:
Freshman year is a crap shoot. In my experience, you can start identifying real talent sophomore year, but you can't be sure till junior year.
I'd say 4:20's as a sophomore and under 4:15 as a junior indicates rare ability. After that, it just comes down to who continues to improve. I ran with a guy who was 4:25 as a freshman, then only improved to 4:16 as a senior... very inconsistent runner who did one year of D1 and quit the team.
In college, I ran with a guy who didn't even start running till he was a junior; ran 9:20 in the 2 mile as a senior, and went on to run as a semi-pro, making the Olympic Trials and placing top 5 nationally on the track.
Point being - high school times identify talent, but to be a pro runner, it's about who consistently shaves off time each year.
Had a very similar teammate, 4:24 to 4:17 and ran D1 for a year. In contrast, I have a friend who ran 4:50 as a freshman and 4:15 as a junior. Strong freshman performances aren't necessarily a good indicator of future success.
I knew a guy who ran 4:43 for 1600 meters in 8th grade. He ended up running 4:35 in sophmore year i believe but then ran into injury trouble. He was injured junior and senior year.
If you win either footlocker or the other big one, run a sub 4 minute mile in high school, go sub 14 for 5000 in high school, your father and/or mother was a elite runner, Alberto Salazar takes interest in you in high school, going under 9 minutes for two miles in high school, etc.
Do you mean going pro like Darrell Dawkins, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and others? I believe you're asking about going pro out of high school. 400m, 45.xx, 800m, 1:45.xx, 1500m, 3:35.xx.
CuriousHSRunner wrote:
I know theres plenty of examples of runners going pro, but running eh as freshman (EX: Pat Casey, 4:58)
What times indicate potential?
5 min as a freshman is almost standard. I would use that as a predictor of a division 1 runner. going pro i would say look at jr sr year and under 4 : 15 .