Say this is an alternate reality, where Alberto Salazar is just now graduating from Oregon, and has an Alberto Salazar-like driven coach figure guiding him, today's shoes, today's races, etc.
He hasn't run a marathon yet, but will run Berlin this fall. The WR is still Kipchoge's, Rupp isn't a factor, everything else is the same.
No the doping controls are much better todays
He would run MUCH FASTER because training methods have improved immensely. I would not call him driven, he seems very laid back to me, a driven coach would likely work and train his runners too much, he says himself the hard work is necessary, but so is recovery, I don't think he over races his runners, and wasn't there a joke not Rupp certified because Salazar pulled Rupp from a race, because the course wasn't ideal, A driven coach would say it is the same conditions for everyone, you are running, Salazar himself while in his prime said he likes to occasionally have a few beers with friends and get a little wild/crazy. If you look at some of his coaching runners clips on Flo-Track, notice he gives his runners workouts that are very doable, not too hard, many driven coaches will work the athletes too hard, so they have little left for races (Basically racing workouts) He is a good/great coach, but he is not driven, he is relaxed, low key.
He wouldn’t be able to take the drugs he was taking then.
I put his NYC 2:08.13 as a low 2:06 at Berlin, or a mid-2:05 at Dubai if he could swing the heat.
The most interesting part of this, though, might be that there's zero way Salazar would be running Euro 5 and 10K races (other than there being no more Euro 5 and 10K races), because the times are just way too fast now. The marathon, though, I could see him running a 2:06 to start, and probably getting to a 2:03 mid after a few - assuming he didn't run NYC, NYC, Boston, NYC.
But, there's no way he'd be winning at Berlin or Dubai. He might need to run whatever that is Rupp ran last year.
So, saying he had two great years before the wheels started to fall off in reality, I'm saying he'd hold up for five years if it was today. I'd give him a 2:06 first-time at Berlin, a 2:04 first time at Dubai, and a 2:07 at NYC after a year of the trials and 2020 Games. Say four years has gone by, I'd still put him at those times on those courses, assuming he was racing enough all summer - which doesn't really seem possible any more. I think his best would be a 2:03 low at a London or Berlin, maybe taking one or the other when Kipchoge retires. Tokyo, I think the heat gets to him and everyone else. Maybe top 10, 2:09 or so.
2019: Berlin
2020: Trials, Games
2021: Dubai, NYC
2022: Boston, Berlin
2023: London, NYC
2024: Trials, Games
Not long wrote:
He wouldn’t be able to take the drugs he was taking then.
Yes yes yes
Salazar significantly shortened his career by overtraining. I've heard he trained as much as 180mpw and it caused a breakdown of his immune system. With more rational training he would have been a medal threat in both the 84 and 88 Olympic marathons.
douglas burke wrote:
He would run MUCH FASTER because training methods have improved immensely. I would not call him driven, he seems very laid back to me, a driven coach would likely work and train his runners too much, he says himself the hard work is necessary, but so is recovery, I don't think he over races his runners, and wasn't there a joke not Rupp certified because Salazar pulled Rupp from a race, because the course wasn't ideal, A driven coach would say it is the same conditions for everyone, you are running, Salazar himself while in his prime said he likes to occasionally have a few beers with friends and get a little wild/crazy. If you look at some of his coaching runners clips on Flo-Track, notice he gives his runners workouts that are very doable, not too hard, many driven coaches will work the athletes too hard, so they have little left for races (Basically racing workouts) He is a good/great coach, but he is not driven, he is relaxed, low key.
Training methods have improved immensely? How so? Coe won two 1500 golds during the time Salazar was competing. How much faster would he have run using today's immensely superior methods?
SDSU Aztec wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
He would run MUCH FASTER because training methods have improved immensely. I would not call him driven, he seems very laid back to me, a driven coach would likely work and train his runners too much, he says himself the hard work is necessary, but so is recovery, I don't think he over races his runners, and wasn't there a joke not Rupp certified because Salazar pulled Rupp from a race, because the course wasn't ideal, A driven coach would say it is the same conditions for everyone, you are running, Salazar himself while in his prime said he likes to occasionally have a few beers with friends and get a little wild/crazy. If you look at some of his coaching runners clips on Flo-Track, notice he gives his runners workouts that are very doable, not too hard, many driven coaches will work the athletes too hard, so they have little left for races (Basically racing workouts) He is a good/great coach, but he is not driven, he is relaxed, low key.
Training methods have improved immensely? How so? Coe won two 1500 golds during the time Salazar was competing. How much faster would he have run using today's immensely superior methods?
Coe ran as fast as he was able to, I don't think he left anything on the track in his fastest times. I know some here can forever extrapolate his times to be faster and faster, but I think the personal bests of Sebastian Coe are as good as possible.
Salazar, given less overtraining, might have been top-5 at the LA games, and might have gone high 2:06 at Rotterdam in 85 or 86. He was saying when he was winning that he could see a 2:05 or 2:06 before he was done, something like that, and I think he would have gotten there. It's too bad it all went south starting in 83.
tarckstar wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Training methods have improved immensely? How so? Coe won two 1500 golds during the time Salazar was competing. How much faster would he have run using today's immensely superior methods?
Coe ran as fast as he was able to, I don't think he left anything on the track in his fastest times. I know some here can forever extrapolate his times to be faster and faster, but I think the personal bests of Sebastian Coe are as good as possible.
Salazar, given less overtraining, might have been top-5 at the LA games, and might have gone high 2:06 at Rotterdam in 85 or 86. He was saying when he was winning that he could see a 2:05 or 2:06 before he was done, something like that, and I think he would have gotten there. It's too bad it all went south starting in 83.
I believe Salazar, with sain training, could have been the best marathoner in world in 84, but he always ran poorly relative to others in hot weather and probably wouldn't have won in LA.
Reasonable conclusion wrote:
Not long wrote:
He wouldn’t be able to take the drugs he was taking then.
Yes yes yes
Hater's gonna hate.
Salazar was 10 years younger than Rupp is now when he was at his peak. He overtrained/raced. If he had his current self as a coach, he would be somewhere between Kipchoge and Rupp.
douglas burke wrote:
He would run MUCH FASTER because training methods have improved immensely. I would not call him driven, he seems very laid back to me, a driven coach would likely work and train his runners too much, he says himself the hard work is necessary, but so is recovery, I don't think he over races his runners, and wasn't there a joke not Rupp certified because Salazar pulled Rupp from a race, because the course wasn't ideal, A driven coach would say it is the same conditions for everyone, you are running, Salazar himself while in his prime said he likes to occasionally have a few beers with friends and get a little wild/crazy. If you look at some of his coaching runners clips on Flo-Track, notice he gives his runners workouts that are very doable, not too hard, many driven coaches will work the athletes too hard, so they have little left for races (Basically racing workouts) He is a good/great coach, but he is not driven, he is relaxed, low key.
You have a warped view of what drive means.
Salazar is an extremely driven coach. He does all the research, all the gimmicks, and all the planning needed to make his athletes perform their absolute best.
That’s what you want.
A coach that makes you run in bad conditions and runs you into the ground isn’t a driven coach — it’s a bad one.
Ackley wrote:
Salazar was 10 years younger than Rupp is now when he was at his peak. He overtrained/raced. If he had his current self as a coach, he would be somewhere between Kipchoge and Rupp.
Salazar was a great runner, but he was not as talented as Rupp is. Salazar never broke 4:00 while Rupp has run 3:50.
tarckstar wrote:
The marathon, though, I could see him running a 2:06 to start, and probably getting to a 2:03 mid after a few - assuming he didn't run NYC, NYC, Boston, NYC.
.... I think his best would be a 2:03 low at a London or Berlin, maybe taking one or the other when Kipchoge retires.
April Fools isn't until next week. Is this meant to be a joke?
2:03 low? Repeat after me. You think he's a minute better than Haile Gebrsleassie at the marathon?
I think you could let Salazar be on every drug he's ever dreamed of being on and he wouldn't run close to 2:03 low.
Are you aware the the non-African world record is basically 2:06 flat for more than 20 years. Da Costa ran 2:06:05 in 1998. Moen ran like 2:05:48 in 2017.
I don't think he'd run much faster than he did (other than the 4% shoe)s. The problem with Salazar wasn't his training - it was the 'repeatability of his training.'
If you crush yourself in training, you F up you thyroid and don't have a long career (unless you take drugs).
i knew al sal back in the day, the ahole.
ya, al sal would be a ton better today if al sal of today coached him.
he would be competitive in 10k and marathon
and his form would be proper.
vs, the work horse form he developed via bad long slow distance moron stuff.
still, al sal is an all time great athlete and coaching.
really, while he was always borderline, i have no evidence he did any full meal deal stuff,
like mega steroids, hgh, blood doping, nor epo, as that did not exist.
al sal was probably cleaner than rivals.
still al sal is an ahole. but great.
people have no idea about alsal.
al sal ran 1310 5k, and that was not optimal.
and his training was not geared for the distance.
infact his training bordered on selfabuse.
with the shoes and the better training, and altitude and the flat course, no doubt the guy goes 205
throw in some borderline supplements,
i'd say 203 or 204. no stretch.
throw in the obvious.
with drafting, flat course, shoes, and only slightly more sensible training, every guy from back in the day is 800m at least better than they ran.
For the alternate reality Salazar to be more successful he would have to have a different personality. He was extremely driven and extremely impatient to succeed. While talented, he was not the most talented runner. He compensated for his relative lack of talent by training more and more until finally his body gave out. Ironically, Salazar the coach might be the best coach for this alternate reality 20 year old Salazar, just from his past experience with overtraining.
The scary thing is out of all the WRs Bekeles weren't even the best he could run. He wasn't even well prepared for those(I think Renato mentioned sickness and preparation issues for his 2 10,000m WRs). He also didn't really have any good help for his 5,000m WR. He could potentially get close to 12:30 and 26 flat.