Levins will run a 2:07?

Hw did NYC half go?

I hope he does well, go Cam!

Well before 2:09 Toronto he ran Houston in 1:05s...NYC like Houston not indicative although maybe helpful for adjusting mileage, sleep, recovery to get on track.

Cam who? wrote:

Hw did NYC half go?

1:05, he's never done well at the half despite having a really good 10000m PB. Not sure if it's due to lack of speed training, or he is doing these half's without tapering for them.

Houston was 10 months before his Toronto marathon. It served as a motivator to get in shape. NYC is part of his build up.

He will not break 2:12.

Cam who? wrote:

Houston was 10 months before his Toronto marathon. It served as a motivator to get in shape. NYC is part of his build up.

He will not break 2:12.

In 2011, Ryan Hall ran just a bit under 64 minutes in the NYC half(back when the course was faster). Went on to run 2:04 at Boston.

I don't think he has sufficient history of racing good hard 5000m and 10,000m races for predictions of 2:07 to make any sense. okay, he's run one olympics and one world championships, but he was 5th in the world renowned Stumptown Twilight 5000m and 25th in the 5000m at the highly prestigious Mt SAC Relays, does that sound like a world killer to you?

sorry, fellas, that 2:09 at Toronto was a great start to his marathon career but he's not going to get significantly faster than that. history is against him.

cheers.

Levins like in the Bible? wrote:

Cam who? wrote:

Houston was 10 months before his Toronto marathon. It served as a motivator to get in shape. NYC is part of his build up.

He will not break 2:12.

In 2011, Ryan Hall ran just a bit under 64 minutes in the NYC half(back when the course was faster). Went on to run 2:04 at Boston.

I thought he windsurfed that 2:04.

Hang Eleven wrote:

Levins like in the Bible? wrote:

In 2011, Ryan Hall ran just a bit under 64 minutes in the NYC half(back when the course was faster). Went on to run 2:04 at Boston.

I thought he windsurfed that 2:04.

Kinda did, if you look at him and a few other of the top finishers that year and there next fastest marathon outside that Boston.

Hall 2:04:58 vs 2:06:17

Geoffrey Mutai 2:03:02 vs 2:04:15(though his course record time in NYC was probably equal to 2:04 or faster)

Moses Mosop 2:03:06 vs 2:05:03

Gebregziabher Gebremariam 2:04:53 vs 2:08(on the NYC course, so could've at least ran a minute or two faster on a pancake flat course)

Abreham Cherkos 2:06:13 vs 2:07:08

So on that day, the wind made them about a minute or two faster.

I thought the same. The tailwind was intense that year. I always wonder if Hall's training post Boston 2011 had any effect on him ultimately retiring early. I thought afterward he started training like a 2:04 - 2:05 guy when he wasn't actually on that level. Or if he was done already and he held it together long enough for the last couple years with his large aerobic base

Cam who? wrote:

Hw did NYC half go?

I really like Levins but that's what I was thinking.

I've read like 2-3 articles saying he was made for the marathon in the last week or two.Then saw he ran 65:10 for the half in NYC.

The first thought that popped into my head was, "If he's made for the marathon, why did he run 65 for the half?"

Now people can be sick and it's almost impossible to race well if you don't back off your mileage.

But 2:07:00 would surprise me a great deal.

JamesTheAmateur wrote:

I thought the same. The tailwind was intense that year. I always wonder if Hall's training post Boston 2011 had any effect on him ultimately retiring early. I thought afterward he started training like a 2:04 - 2:05 guy when he wasn't actually on that level. Or if he was done already and he held it together long enough for the last couple years with his large aerobic base

Problem with Hall is that he didn't switch to a 9 day cycle and he never touched on his speed. One reason why I believe why meb had such a long career. Was for about half of his marathon career, he would switch focus on the 10000m.

Meb 10000m progression:

2009 28:35.49 Eugene, OR (USA) 25 JUN 2009

2008 28:28.44 Bruxelles (BEL) 05 SEP 2008

2007 27:41.26 Bruxelles (BEL) 14 SEP 2007

2006 28:18.74 Indianapolis, IN (USA) 23 JUN 2006

2005 28:10.57 Carson (USA) 23 JUN 2005

2004 27:24.10 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 30 APR 2004(went on to win silver at the Olympic marathon)

2003 27:57.59 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 19 JUN 2003

2002 27:20.15 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 03 MAY 2002

2001 27:13.98 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 04 MAY 2001(American record at the time)

2000 27:53.63 Sydney (AUS) 25 SEP 2000

1999 28:29.27 Eugene, OR (USA) 24 JUN 1999

1998 28:16.79 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 28 MAR 1998

1997 28:26.55 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 22 MAR 1997

Vs Hall's 10000m progression:

2007 28:07.93 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 30 MAR 2007

I think if Hall would've focused on the 10000m periodically. He would've extended his career bigly.

Not sure about his NYC race but I saw him race in Toronto. He had an extra minute or so in him easily.

LetsRun.com wrote:

Cam who? wrote:

Hw did NYC half go?

I really like Levins but that's what I was thinking.

I've read like 2-3 articles saying he was made for the marathon in the last week or two.Then saw he ran 65:10 for the half in NYC.

The first thought that popped into my head was, "If he's made for the marathon, why did he run 65 for the half?"

Now people can be sick and it's almost impossible to race well if you don't back off your mileage.

But 2:07:00 would surprise me a great deal.

He can probably run in the 2:07-2:09 range, however he can not be on the 2:03-2:04 train from the gun or he will derail. He has to hope there is another group running his goal pace and that is the conundrum in these big Marathons. All the top guys go for broke and if they blow up they walk off the course for the most part.

LetsRun.com wrote:

Cam who? wrote:

Hw did NYC half go?

I really like Levins but that's what I was thinking.

I've read like 2-3 articles saying he was made for the marathon in the last week or two.Then saw he ran 65:10 for the half in NYC.

The first thought that popped into my head was, "If he's made for the marathon, why did he run 65 for the half?"

.

100 percent on the mark. 64 minutes DURING a marathon should feel ridiculously slow if you are "built for the marathon." 65 minutes for a half marathon race is beyond terrible.

Before Meb started winning marathons he was injured a ton. That's why he didn't have a sponsor and had to go with sketchers. His career encompassed more calendar years but he was not training well or competing for significant stretches of time.

He went out with the leaders and fell apart. Time wasn't indicative of performance

I don't think 2:07 if out of the realm for Levins if he has a stellar, out of the park race.

He's gone 27:07 for 10km, so the raw talent is there.

But, I don't see it happening.

What happened to Levins last year? 13:58 for 5000m and 3:50 for 1500m. Not bad but way off his PR's.

You'd think he'd have to be at least somewhere close his peak 1500/5000/10000 form to be able to hit 2:07

It doesn't seem he is

What happened to him last year?

Let’s see...he changed his training and debuted in the marathon with a 2:09:25 Canadian record.