Hoping to get faster wrote:
Checked out what age grading meant, I think my 1600 meter time can go down to 4:45-4:50 ish as a freshman and my age grading would be about an 84 which would mean I am in the national class, upon looking at previous years rankings in the state for freshman I would be around #25 in the state for freshman, which wouldn’t really put me in a national competition level, ik age grading isn’t perfect but I mean I’m not even close to “national level” as they are kids my age running sub 4:30’s can someone help me understand?
A mile time of 4:45 at age 14 is very good, and you're likely to see big improvements every year. Top 25, statewide, amongst freshman would also be a worthy achievement. Congrats!
Age-grading, for young runners and beyond-their-prime runners is based on a percentage of the single-age world record for each event. Not surprisingly, with so many kids competing, there are quite a few 14-year-olds who can race at 85% of the age-14 world record.
At the other extreme, an 80-year-old racing at 85% might be top-10 nationally or better (I'm guessing -- haven't checked the stats), because there are so few competitors.
I'll be 60 this year, and was eyeing a 3-hour marathon as a goal. That would age grade at 85%. And last year I counted fewer than 10 American marathoners, 60 or older, who broke 3 hours. So, by virtue of fewer numbers, that would, indeed, be "national class."
BTW, you're way ahead of where I was at 14. My BEST mile in high school was 4:45, as a senior, but, still, I've enjoyed decades of running and racing, including Division III in college, where I was actually recruited to run. Enjoy continued success!