Can I run a sub 3 hour marathon?

Unless your 55 mpw average has been a big jump for you compared to past marathon cycles, I would say no.

Yes I think you can but you may need to change up your sessions a bit. 55 miles a week is probably enough in my experience but it doesn't sound like you have enough variation. As well as a speed session and a long run (I'm assuming the rest are easy miles) you need some tempo/progression/fartlek runs in there. I just ran sub 3 for the first time in Dublin a fortnight ago (previous best was 3:25) and the longer higher paced runs really helped. Some example sessions:

Progression 1 - 10 mins @ Marathon pace, 10 mins @ HM pace, 10 mins @ 10k pace, 10mins @ 5k pace

Progression 2 - 20 mins @ Marathon pace, 45 mins @ HM pace, 15 mins @ 10k pace

Fartlek 1 - 15 x 1min @ 5k pace, 1min @ Marathon pace

Fartlek 2 - 8 x 4min @ 5k pace, 2min @ Marathon pace

Long run 1 - Run the last 4 miles @ HM pace

Long run 2 - Run all at marathon pace (2 or 3 weeks out)

Another thing that helped for me (may not be an option for you) is that I shed 15lbs from the start of the year. A general guide is a 2 second per lb per mile improvement (assuming you're still at a safe weight) which equates to 13 mins for a marathon. So I reckon half was down to improved training and half was down to weight loss.

In terms of other distances, here are the times I think you should be targeting in order to know you are on for a sub 3 (btw you are almost there with the 10k time):

5k - 18:00

10k - sub 38:00

HM - 1:24

Good luck!

Al

10/10

Your 10K time suggests maybe you can, assuming the course wasn't short. What was the 13 miles of pace work you did during the 21-mile run? What was your pace, and was it broken up or all together? If it was 13 miles straight at 6:50 pace during a 21-mile run, that's another decent sign that you might be ready.

No, you will miss sub-3 by a few minutes,

Could you run 20-22miles with last 6-8miles in marathon sub3 tempo?

If yes then you can go sub3. It will be close but possible given a flat course and good weather.

No. The dropoff from you 10k to 10M time indicates an even bigger drop to your marathon. Up your mileage over the next year or so and you'll get there.

3:10 seems more likely, but maybe you'll get a huge tailwind day at CIM (do those happen?)

I think that progression 2 is too much and bordering on a race effort... But I agree you need more tempo work in there.

the 10k to half ratio is not exceptional, so my hunch is: no. unless that half time is quite old, but still.

btw, I agree with the sub-18 and sub-38 advice for this guy here, but that shouldn't be taken as general advice. it's absolutely possible to run sub3 and barely break 39.

ADeanW1088 wrote:

Ok, so I’m training for the 2018 California International Marathon. This will be my fifth marathon, my PR being 3:13 at the Austin Marathon (somewhat hilly). I average about 55 miles per week, with one speed session and a long run. I ran a 10k @ 38:05 (surprised myself) earlier this year, and a 10 mile race @ 1:06 last week (on tired legs, with a 4 mile warmup, 8 by 800 three days prior, and one week prior did a 21 mile workout with 13 miles of pace work). Half marathon PR is 1:28:05, and ran a 2.5 mile relay race averaging 5:49 pace in September. So....can I run sub 3? What are the chances that I will? Given everything falls in to place on race day, of course (weather, health, etc)

Not yet. Your half-marathon time indicates you will miss it, but keep working as you will get there with more mileage. Pick a Spring marathon and train exclusively for it.

LetsEatDoughnutsInstead wrote:

Bravo Sir wrote:

10/10

I think that progression 2 is too much and bordering on a race effort... But I agree you need more tempo work in there.

Yeah ... Progression 2 is a bit much. I would prefer to just see a half marathon tune-up race instead, which would be at the same level and ALSO be an excellent race prediction data point.

Meanwhile, OP - I think your training and race results suggest that you have the speed/potential, but given the falloff from your 10k to the 10 miler and half times you need just a bit more mileage (maybe 10%), but a real focus on longer tempo (threshold) type efforts. Adding a second hard workout day per week or even every other week would give you a lot more opportunity to shore up those bits.

You’ll probably kick the snot out of your PR, though - you sound like you’re lined up for a great race!

cool

So the 21 miler was 1 mile easy, then 3 by 3 mile at 6:35-6:40 pace avg with 1 mile easy between sets. Then 4 miles easy to a track where I did 4 by 1 mile at 6:00 pace with 2 mins rest between sets

The 10 miler was very hilly, and I wasn’t fully recovered for it. It was also more of a workout. I did a 4 mile warmup, ‘raced’ the 10 miles, then a 4 mile cool down.

Thank you for the very specific feedback. I have indeed been getting a variation of speed workouts on Wednesday - intervals, fartleks, tempo. Also, I have ran an 18:15 5k, and a 17:59 during a time trial on a track. I know I have the speed to do it, I just don’t know if I can keep it together for 26 miles. Also I’ve been putting in 55-60 mile weeks for 4 months consistently with 3 20 milers, one of which was a long run workout

how does 6:45-6:50 pace feel? if it feels utterly sustainable and/or you can hit and hold that pace at the end of long runs, you have a good shot at sub-3 if the weather is good

FWIW i ran multiple sub-3's in my 40's when i never ran faster than 1:27 for a half

I just ran sub 3 for the first time at age 43. I started running about 4 years ago. I've only run 1:24 for a half once, but in recent ones was more around 1:26, but on no taper from marathon training. Previous marathon PR's were a couple of 3:03's in warm weather. Here's what I think got me over the hump this fall.

1. High quality long runs. No jogging out 20 milers, first 10 miles or so comfortable, but not "easy" pace. Second part of run 8-10 miles at marathon pace or faster, with about 30 seconds every 2 miles to break for water/race day fuel. Got 3 of these types of runs in over the course of 6 weeks leading up to the race along with 65ish miles on avg per week...

2. Six weeks out, eat as healthy/clean as possible (different meaning for everyone), focus on quality sleep. I ended up dropping some weight during this time, which for me was a good thing..

3. Race day. Indianapolis Marathon. Great course, mostly flat with just a few hills to keep some variance....and perfect, I mean perfect running weather. Average probably around 45, a little sun, little to no wind.

4. You are likely going to have to really want it after 20 miles. I was hurting, but keep going and had to still be able to run 6:50's late in the race with a surge in the last half mile to get to 2:59:23

You have a chance for sure, finish the training wisely....don't over taper, but show up rested. Win the mental battle when you are suffering. Enjoy!

If you don't hit your goal . . .

I'm a big advocate of Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning. The plan with 55-70mpw. The long runs with extended stretches at goal pace (like 18 miles with last 14 at goal pace) really prove if you're ready for your goal or not.