What is my marathon potential?

There are too many things that are not known, but let's try..

If it becomes an obsession for the next few years, my guess is at least 2:59.

Dnf

Hard to say. Your mileage for both of your marathons was sub-optimal. You will definitely drop time as you continue to develop aerobically.

I have a different question: why the marathon? With your athletic background, you could probably knock off a big chunk of time from your 5K with just a bit of specific training. The half marathon is also fun, and the training is a lot less of a grind. Maybe you could take a year or two to focus on shorter races (while slowly increasing your mileage), and then return to the marathon as a more developed runner.

Just my two cents.

Thanks for the replies. In response to “why the marathon”, I guess I’d say that my personality suits the grind of this type of training. I love tempo and long runs, and for whatever reason enjoy the suffering aspect. I’m not looking for an easy or quick path to a faster marathon, I just enjoy the process of a long and tiring buildup for a big event. Building up for months for a 17-19 minute event isn’t as exciting to me.

But for what it’s worth, I do intend to not run a marathon next year, and just get consistent with higher mileage and do shorter races like 5k and 10k. I’d like to see what type of speed I have to set a more ambitious (but realistic) goal for my next marathon in 2020.

Try Hanson Marathon Method. They’ve coached numerous sub 2:20 marathoners out of average collegiate runners. Their program works.

Over the past 6 months, I have been more consistent with training, averaging 30 mpw and peaking at 40 mpw, with a 15 mile longest long run. Due to the hot, humid Midwest summer, most of my long runs were slow and absolute suffer-fests in 80% humidity at 85 degrees. I had little to no work at marathon goal pace (8:00). Also missed a week of training just 4 weeks out from the race due to an injury scare.

Result was a 3:32 marathon. I died hard in the last 3 miles and death marched with three 9+ min miles to close it out.

Realistically speaking, what is my potential if I can get up to 55-60mpw over the next few years? I appreciate any input and advice.[/quote]

Your story sounds pretty similar to mine.

Using your template I: started running at 27yr old, after random sports in the past. With very little training I ran a 5k just under 20 minutes (standard).

I then ran my first marathon within a year and a half of starting. Max mileage 30 mpw, with no real long run. Ran 3:50. Improved next year to 3:40.

After stints of higher mileage (40-50 mpw) I ran 3:16.

Then I got "serious" (some here will make fun of this), lost some weight (you need to be very light for the marathon), and with a consistent mileage of 60-65 mpw I ran a 2:56 which is my PR.

Assuming similar talent level and (more important) dedication it is likely that you could run at least around that. Still leaves some for improvement. After maxing out at 75 mpw I ran a 1:20 half, and I think that if someone stays healthy, stays very consistent, and does all the right thing, he or she can run around 2:45 in their late 30s (as I am now).

To run much faster and approach 2:30 I think you either would need to 1) start a bit younger or 2) have much more talent (e.g. 18 min 5k with little training) or 3) put it some very very serious dedication approaching 100+ mpw with workouts etc.

Just my 2c.

- Lose weight. Eat twice a day 10:30 am and 5:30 pm. Don't be fat.

- Run every day, easy breathing pace. At least 10k a day. Try to get to 70mpw. 85% easy runs.

- Do Strides after every long run

- Follow a real plan like Hansons and understand how and why it works

- Work on your running form every day. Learn to keep your feet under your torso

- Be realistic with your goal time. Don't think you can average your 10 mile best over 26.2.

- Learn to run negative splits in races of all distances

- Don't listen to these loser haters on Lets Run. To be honest they all are failures with small members.

If you go vegan, 2:48. If you don't go vegan, 3:09.

If you keep eating animals and animal milk products, the chronic inflammation in your body will inhibit its ability to adequately recover from hard workouts and increase your risk of injury - especially when you increase mileage. Also, make sure to activate your glute meds. If there is one thing I've learned from PT's, it's that if you activate your glute meds it's impossible to get injured.

Probably somewhere around 3 hours give or take 10 minutes.

If I were you, though, I'd concentrate on 1/2 marathon and 10k (and even 5k) for a year or two. Get some speed going while building a base. If you can run around 1:20 for a 1/2, then a 3 hour marathon is possible.

Running is a multiyear process when you are starting out. Just keep building your mileage. Keep extending your long runs. In a few years you can be up to around 60-70 mpw. Keep that long run around 15, but see if the pace can improve. Slowly, but surely.

Luckily you are not too old to reach your best marathon potential (you're best 5k and 1 mile may be behind you).

didnt read other comments but for your question

reaching marathon potential isn't a 1 year thing. it takes years to really reach it. Just the nature of aerobic training. spend 24 weeks training, race, week or two off. rinse and repeat. so 2 peaks a year. one maybe one of those peak races is a half marathon or maybe you do a series of 5k/10k races as well during your peak once. but if your goal is marathon id recommend at least 1 peak a year be for the marathon

from your PRS you don't seem like you are insanely talented at running tbh. But after 1-2 years of hitting 50-60 MPW sub 3 is definitely with in reach. You might be able to do it in less time if you find a training plan that works really well for you as well

if you keep up that sort of mileage for years beyond that after that there is no reason you couldn't be sniffing at 2:40-2:45 but that also may require the commitment to even more mileage (in the 70-80+ range). Ive heard 7-10 years is how long it takes to reach marathon peak for most people

You sound a lot like me, except I don't have the college soccer background--was just a lazy bum in college. In my mid 30s, I took up casual running (like 15MPW) and did some half-hearted marathons with crap training--like 20-25MPW, no workouts but making sure to get in some 18-20 milers. (Always got injured after the long run so I didn't run much the rest of the week.) First marathon was 3:40. Second marathon a year later was 3:32, with slightly better training but not great. Then I started to get serious, tracking mileage and incorporating workouts (usually a threshold run mid-week and long run with quality marathon pace or threshold work incorporated on the weekend)

Fall 2018--40 MPW. Ran a 1:28 half.

Summer 2019--50MPW. 3:08 marathon (a 3 week injury probably held me back a bit)

Fall 2019--45-50MPW. 1:23 half

Jan. 2020--55-60MPW 2:58 marathon

I'd say with a few sustained months of smart training and 50MPW you are going to be a sub 3:10 marathoner. Another 6 months, going up to 60MPW perhaps, and I'd say you're going to be sub 3 ready. (I don't think you need to be a 1:20 half marathoner to go sub 3 like another poster said...certainly that would be a lock but not necessary. In fact, Daniels would say my 2:58 marathon is weak compared to my 1:23 half.) For what its worth, I followed Daniels, although pretty loosely because I feel like some of his workouts would kill me if followed to a T.

To answer your question I would venture you could get to low 2:50s in 3ish years, faster over a slightly longer time frame.

I played competitive club soccer in high school and college, got into running at 25. You sound nearly identical to me. I ran a 20:xx 5k on a whim, playing only casual soccer 2-3x a week. Started running "seriously" at age 25 in late 2014

2015 ran 3:38 on 29 mpw with 15 miles my longest long run

2016 ran 3:32 on 35ish mpw with one 18 and one 20 mile long run

2017 ran two trail 50ks, ran a 1:26 half with mileage in the low 40s

2018 one more 50k, mileage up in the high 40s and ran 2:58. By this point I had run over 3 hours on long runs probably 10-20 times. This seemed to be the real difference maker. Ran 100k in the fall and got hurt.

2019 ran 3:01 at Boston off of about 50 mpw and short block back from injury. Ran 1:19 half in the fall off of 45 mpw specific half training

2020 ran 1:17 half midway through marathon training, 2:47 full. 63 mpw avg over 18 weeks with ten 18+ mile/2+hr long runs (at an average pace of 6:45-7:00/mi or so) My opinion is it is important to run the long runs at a good pace and all else is secondary. I tend to be better at halves than fulls so far. I think it's just a function of lifetime mileage being somewhat low.

Just for reference. Hope this helps. Your potential is dependent on your consistency and ability to not get hurt.

You would be very, very lucky to ever break 3:00. With 50 to 60 mpw consistently for years....probably between 3:00 and 3:10.

Build up your volume and don't get injured, you can run under 3:00:00

You'd have to do something more than a couple of 20 minute 5Ks to show more potential than that. Let's say you get real fit and break 16:00 for 5k, that'd be a start.

vegan69 wrote:

If you go vegan, 2:48. If you don't go vegan, 3:09.

If you keep eating animals and animal milk products, the chronic inflammation in your body will inhibit its ability to adequately recover from hard workouts and increase your risk of injury - especially when you increase mileage. Also, make sure to activate your glute meds. If there is one thing I've learned from PT's, it's that if you activate your glute meds it's impossible to get injured.

I am vegetarian and only made it to 3:07.

I guess he is right.

I think your potential can be anything from sub 3 hours, 2:50 to 3:15.

It all depends how you train and who you get faster. Your 10k PR is a good indicator for a Marathon, with the appropriate Marathon training of course.

But not everybody is cut out for a tough sub 3 hour training with 60 mpw.

I started at a similar baseline in terms of age and 5k time with little training (although probably heavier - 220lbs). I'd never run over 20k at a time before and followed a 16 week marathon program (Sage Canaday's) which got me down to 190lbs and I ran a 2:57.

I was pretty close to injury at some stages but with dedicated and consistent training over several years you'll definitely go sub 3 and could maybe even go around 2:45. Good luck mate!

Soccer sucks.

You suck.

Get a job.

kzg wrote:

Try Hanson Marathon Method. They’ve coached numerous sub 2:20 marathoners out of average collegiate runners. Their program works.

A much better method is the Dancan by coach js.He has coached a couple of 2:07-2:10 marathoners.His program is outstanding on relatively low mileage.