What's your source on Kapes? Pretty reliable sources say he runs.
The reason Kapes and Hadley, even at 75% make a difference is because Walsh got beat at the 4-5 spots, not the 1,2,3. They don't need these guys to come out and win the race. They need them to run in the 15-20 range and close their spread up a bit. It's not a stretch to think that could happen.
Now, if you're playing devils advocate, yes Walsh is much less of a favorite without Kapes and Hadley, or if they race very poorly. However, if we break it down I still like Walsh as a favorite. I'm not calling them a lock, but somebody has to be the favorite and I think there's as compelling an argument for Walsh as there is for anyone.
Walsh has lost to Malone by 3 points and tied them this year. I think the home course advantage is enough to give them the edge this time. Cedarville got them by what, 10 points at SRU, but lost by 30 at All-Ohio. Not sure if we get Jekyll or Hyde with them, but again I think Walsh's home course gives them an edge. The only time we've seen Walsh go head to head with Hillsdale they won by 30. Throw in the home course advantage on top of that and I think Walsh has to be favored there as well.