Half Marathon Prediction

Sub-1:20 for sure. You have the potential to run faster. You could think about sticking to 6:00/mile pace for the first 7-10 miles and see how that feels. As for workouts, a session of long intervals (3-4 x 2 miles) is a HM staple.

Are you sure? That seems awfully quick! I was thinking more like 1:23. Should I be running my workouts quicker to get used to these kind of race paces?

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

Are you sure? That seems awfully quick! I was thinking more like 1:23. Should I be running my workouts quicker to get used to these kind of race paces?

Either you're being a little falsely modest or you're a little green, but either way I think he's right. You'd be surprised in a race format how easy running at slightly above threshold will feel for the first half. I would definitely tend to agree with the above, but maybe be a little more conservative if you're not sure. As long as you keep producing in your long tempo efforts and maybe push the long runs to farther than race distance (a few 15-16 milers in there) I think you would have a 1:20 for sure.

I'm not being modest at all. I have only run one half marathon before and that was in 1:34:xx, but I didn't really train for that one at all. I was originally aiming for breaking 1:30 in this one, but have already surpassed that goal in training. I had a quick look at some running calculators and they were coming out with just over 1:23 pace, and I reckoned I could cut off a few seconds to dip under 1:23, but that already seemed pretty damn fast to me. I'm quite nervous about going out too hard and blowing up completely, and am very much looking for advice on what to do!

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

I'm not being modest at all. I have only run one half marathon before and that was in 1:34:xx, but I didn't really train for that one at all. I was originally aiming for breaking 1:30 in this one, but have already surpassed that goal in training. I had a quick look at some running calculators and they were coming out with just over 1:23 pace, and I reckoned I could cut off a few seconds to dip under 1:23, but that already seemed pretty damn fast to me. I'm quite nervous about going out too hard and blowing up completely, and am very much looking for advice on what to do!

There are a few things I would keep in mind, as one who has been surprised by my own half marathon result in the past off low mileage and lack of base (although trust me, it wasn't an impressive time by LR standards).

1) As long as you're not in a warm weather area, the weather should be cooler/less humid by the end of September. This makes a big difference in longer races.

2) If I plug your 10k time into McMillan's calculator, it comes out equivalent to a 1:24 half marathon. However, if as you said that was a tempo effort in the middle of training, there would be a big drop off of that. If you can, I'd encourage you to try to jump in a race to get a gauge on where you're at. If you can't, another idea would be to ask someone you might know who's a superior runner to you to pace you in a time trial effort. Never tried this but thought about it before. Someone might be willing to do it since it gives a sense of helping.

3) While I am by no means an experienced runner, from what I've read other people post half-marathon efforts in training are tough and rarely can people run at pace for more than 6-8 miles at their goal pace. You can look at it this way - you're practically already working through that.

I think you got more in you than you think! Main thing would be to try to get gauges through either workouts/time trials or a 10k race if you can find one.

I am sure that 1:23 isn't impressive by LR standards either. What was your time? Alright, thanks a lot, that sounds quite encouraging then!

I can try and find a better flatter route and really go for a 10K next week and see what it gives me, that might give me a better indicator of what I'm really capable of. What kind of workouts were you doing for your race?

I was thinking at running at roughly 6:20 pace for the half marathon for my goal pace. Perhaps going out a 6:15 (taking advantage of the buzz of a race and the adrenaline etc), then trying to stick at 6:20ish until about 9 miles, see if I can move it up to 6:10 for the next couple, and then see if I can drop under 6 minutes for the last couple of miles. Does that sound like a sensible race plan to you?

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

Are you sure? That seems awfully quick! I was thinking more like 1:23. Should I be running my workouts quicker to get used to these kind of race paces?

1:23 would be an abysmal result given your workouts. You should be targeting under 1:20.

Really?

I guess we see things pretty similar, because my time was officially 1:22:54. So yes, I was happy with it but nothing to write home about around these here parts. Race was in spring and weather was ideal - mid 40s with a very light drizzle.

What kind of workouts were you doing for your race?

It was very unconventional. Averaged 25-30 miles a few months leading into it and it was mostly workouts. Tempo run around 6:10-6:20 from 5-6 miles or so each week. Some longer intervals, like 1 mile easy ~7:15, 1 mile tempo. 3-4 long runs around 13 miles with faster finishes towards what was eventually HM pace; average pace was around 7:00/mile. I also did HIIT workouts twice a week on most weeks during that time. So again, unconventional in that there wasn't a lot of easy running. Wouldn't recommend it.

Does that sound like a sensible race plan to you?

If you want to be that conservative, it would definitely protect you against a blowup. My splits were 6:29, 6:27, 6:27, 6:19, 6:21, 6:19, 6:19, 6:12, 6:12, 6:12, 6:10, 6:13, 6:16. So you can see where I thought I was okay to pick it up a bit around 7-8, but then faded a tad towards the end. I wouldn't go so far as to say 1:23 would be abysmal for you, but I think it would definitely be under-performing based on what you say you've logged. I've failed in a couple marathon attempts, so I would like to think I know how much better it feels to think, "Man, I had more in the tank I could have used" vs. "Man, I was an idiot for thinking I could hold that pace." It sucks knowing you made a mistake based on hubris, but it also sucks knowing you missed out on a chance to maximize months of training.

I do agree with the above poster in that you could target 1:21 and still be way in the safe zone. 6:20 for the first 3, 6:15 for a few, then 6:06 for most of the way, and closing with some 6:00 miles would put you close to right at 1:21. But if I were you, I'd target closer to 1:20 since it seems like you can run faster than that but with the caveat that this is your first real attempt at a HM.

What's the normal weather for race day where you live compared to the weather you've had during your summer?

I've recently run in the 1:20:XX range twice, and I couldn't touch any of your workouts. Not the tempos, and definitely not the 400 or 800 intervals.

Your 10-mile tempo was at 6:13.5 pace, and it seemed easy. That's just 7.5 seconds/mile slower than the pace for a 1:20:00 HM. Do some long intervals at 6:00/mile pace, taper your mileage, put on some racing shoes, get some race day adrenaline going, and be smart in the first half of the race - running 6:00-6:05/mile, not 5:40/mile - and you'll smash 1:20:00.

Well done! That sounds like a great result! That does however sound like an unconventional approach to HM training. Yeah, I can see how that looks like a fairly conservative race plan. I was thinking of probably trying to keep my splits closer together - I don't want to go out a 6:30 pace for the first 5K basically throwing 30 seconds away and trying to desperately get them back at the end.

I might try and do some workouts closer to goal pace then, something at 6:06-6:10 pace. I'll do those next week and let everyone know how they go! Thanks a lot for the advice!

I don't live in a very hot place. I'm based in the UK, and the weather over the past month has been between 15-20 degrees (59-68) over the past month. I don't live very high up, and the climate is fairly typical of the UK - quite wet sometimes, but nice at other times. I'm expecting it to be a bit colder for the race, probably 10-15 degrees (50-59) and the race is going to be basically at sea level. So the conditions won't be making much of a difference. Also, I haven't been running in crazy heat recently. so my times aren't worth more than they actually are.

Really? I didn't even think those interval workouts were that fast. I was away over the summer training with a group and I smashed out one interval session (on a track) of 20mins at 6:45, followed by 15x400 at 68-70 pace, I think I even threw down a 66 in the last rep, although that was really quite hard. and we definitely had most rest (probably 2-3 minutes). What kind of paces were you hitting?

I'll do the interval workouts next week and see how they go! Thanks for the advice. Do you have any advice on tapering? I have no idea how to taper, never done it before.

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

Really? I didn't even think those interval workouts were that fast. I was away over the summer training with a group and I smashed out one interval session (on a track) of 20mins at 6:45, followed by 15x400 at 68-70 pace, I think I even threw down a 66 in the last rep, although that was really quite hard. and we definitely had most rest (probably 2-3 minutes). What kind of paces were you hitting?

I'll do the interval workouts next week and see how they go! Thanks for the advice. Do you have any advice on tapering? I have no idea how to taper, never done it before.

It`s obvious you are doing your 15 x 400m too fast if you need 90 sec rest and your 6 x mile is too slow. But it looks you have quite good potential. In fact I can see a half in 1.12-1.13 within a years training , but then I mean you have to run your EXACT best individual paces in training , and that you are not doing right now.Of course I know how to do it correct.

I would have to had worked very hard to match those workouts last fall and I went under 1:20. I had higher weekly volume by about 15-20%.

I wouldn't agree with that, because you should rest a lot when you are doing really fast work, otherwise you can't run quickly with good form, and if you can't do that then you aren't really getting anything from the workout.

Yeah, I was quite worried when I ran that mile repeats workout, because I thought I wold average between 5:45-5:50, but I didn't.

Asdfghjkl - what paces were you hitting in training?

You are substantially faster than I was last year when I ran 1:24:11. I did this 3 weeks after running a 10k pb of 38:24 (with no rest and 3 days after a hard 6x1 mile workout). From your workout, I think 1:21-1:22 is a safe bet if you have the aerobic base, which I think you do.