He probably could drop 1 minute per mile if he lost 30 lbs.
A couple years ago I was about 35 lbs over racing weight and could barely manage 8:00 pace for any distance (used to train up to 20 miles at 6:00 pace). If I ran hard for a mile on the track I was around 7:00 (old PR was 4:20).
I trained for about 8 months (after 6 years of fatness) and lost 20-25 lbs. I was running about 70 miles a week (after a sensible buildup) and most of the running was at 7:00-7:30 pace (it comes back fast once the weight goes away). At the end of the 8 months I was able to do 2 hour runs with an hour up the middle of the run at 6:20 pace and could run in the 5:30s for 10k. I don't know what my mile time would have been since I didn't get a chance to do one but probably in the 4:40s.
I had to stop because of a non-running related injury. I stopped running completely about 8 months ago and gained all the weight back. Once again I can probably only manage 8:00 pace.
Personally I think dieting is a waste of time. When I got fat the first time, I started cutting out all the snacks I used to enjoy. Eventually I was eating all the healthy food and running a few days a week, and I was still fat and slow. I never believed I could ever run a 6:00 mile again.
To the original poster...you just have to decide that the most important thing is that you will get in shape. Then devote an hour a day to it...walking and running until you get in shape, then running. You don't have to run very hard to lose weight. Give it 6 months and you will be fit again.