A medal sweep by them would be historic and I'm trying to figure out how likely it is to occur..
At 3:30.01 (#3 in the world), 25 year old Filip - the bronze medallist at Worlds last year - has the edge as he's the fastest of all of the finalists. 17-year old Jakob - the 4th fastest man in the world at 3:31.18 - is the next fastest man in the world this year. The next three fastest finalists however are not named Ingebrigtsen - it's the three Brits.
3 3:32.11 Chris O'Hare GBR 20 Jul 2018
4 3:33.96 Jake Wightman GBR 20 Jul 2018
5 3:34.20 Charlie Grice GBR
Former 800 man Marcin Lewsadowski, who won World Indoor silver earlier this year in the 1500, is the 6th seed at 3:35.06. Then at 3:35.61 and the #6 seed is the eldest Ingebrigtsen, 27-year old Henrik, who ran 13:16 back in early May at Stanford. The only other man in the field this year under 3:36 is Belgium's Ismael Debjani at 3:35.71.
Having looked at those names, I have to predict the a medal sweep will not occur. While it certainly could happen, the odds are certainly less than 50%. That being said, it certainly could happen and Henrik should not be discounted as a medal contender. While Henrik but he hasn't broken 3:34.57 since 2015, he was afterall 5th in the 2012 Olympics, has a pb of 3:31.46 and was only .39 behind Centrowitz when Centrowitz won in London a few weeks ago.
So here is my prediction.
Picking the winner is easy. I know half the messageboard is obsessed with potential and always talking about the next great runner. That type of thinking is fun but it drives me nuts at time. Jakob is a teen phenom, but Filip is going to win the gold. He's in INSANE form right now. Watch him fall in his heat today and still catchup to the leaders within the span of 300 meters.
https://youtu.be/51AuwZA5McU?t=1m59s
That's ridiculous. I'll give another medal to another Ingebrigtsen - most likely Jakob - and then say the third medal to Lewandowski.
Let me hear your thoughts.
Rojo
PS. Have all 3 of the Ingebrigtsens ever raced in the same race before?
PPS. Actually, I'm starting to get a little nervous about Filip. He hasn't won a 1500 race at all since winning Euros in 2016. It can be hard to run as a favorite. I think he should just run and think I'm not taking the lead under any circumstance until the final 150. And my predictions are based on him not being too badly injured. Apparently, he skipped out on some interviews as he was spiked down to the bone and needed treatment.
