Can I run 4 minutes and some change by senior year?

Possible? Yes.

Likely? No.

Just keep your head down and work hard. Also, you never posted what year you currently are.

What year in school will you be in September?

If you are talking about going from 4:44 to 4:10 this next track season my answer would be no.

Going from 4:44 to 4:30 I would say most likely yes.

Going from 4:44 to 4:25 I would say good chance.

Going from 4:44 to 4:20 I would say maybe.

These are just examples and are only based upon what training you posted. Year in school, age, height, weight, would be good indicators to know. Good luck this Fall in XC and then Track season!

gdeegz wrote:

Possible? Yes.

Likely? No.

Just keep your head down and work hard. Also, you never posted what year you currently are.

I ran 4:44 freshman year. I'm going into sophomore year

Nigel_Bikes wrote:

What year in school will you be in September?

If you are talking about going from 4:44 to 4:10 this next track season my answer would be no.

Going from 4:44 to 4:30 I would say most likely yes.

Going from 4:44 to 4:25 I would say good chance.

Going from 4:44 to 4:20 I would say maybe.

These are just examples and are only based upon what training you posted. Year in school, age, height, weight, would be good indicators to know. Good luck this Fall in XC and then Track season!

I'm going into sophomore year. I'm 15 years old, 5'11, and 130lbs

4:44 is a respectable time for a frosh/sosh but is not on the path to 4:10. Your 400 time is a big part of running that fast. 4:10 Is too distant to be a realistic goal. Your training is good but your goals should be incremental and should start at around 4:30.

You're also bumping up your mileage too quickly. If you hit 70s as a sophomore, what will you run as a senior? Over 100?

SouthernFriedRealist wrote:

You're also bumping up your mileage too quickly. If you hit 70s as a sophomore, what will you run as a senior? Over 100?

I mean I plan on doing more during the summer overall. I'm averaging 55-60, and I'm just doing 70 maybe once or twice. I'm looking to run around 45-50 over the cross season and then 60 over the winter, 45 during track.

Junior year I'll probably average 70 and peak at 80, and average 80 peak at 90 senior year.

Excellent improvement for high schoolers is 10-9-8. Likely improvement is 10-8-6. So your likely senior PR will be 4:20.

Predictor wrote:

Excellent improvement for high schoolers is 10-9-8. Likely improvement is 10-8-6. So your likely senior PR will be 4:20.

Most HSers don't even run in June, and the ones that do aren't going to be working as hard as me. I would not be satisfied with a 4:20.

I ran 4:48 freshmen year. didnt run the mile senior year but was doing workouts indicative of 4:20-4:25 shape

had friends who didnt break 5 freshmen year and went on to break 4:10

had friends who ran sub 4:20 freshmen year and never touched it again

had friends who ran 4:30 freshmen year and ran 4:09 by senior year

point is who knows. Could you? definitely. having training partners that are fast is important, having a coach that know his stuff is helpful

just keep working hard, recover well, and you will continue to improve.

try adding some short hill sprints into your summer routine. 8-10 x 10 second hill sprints once a week plus strides as well after other easy runs. lets you maintain speed while building base.

my biggest concern for you is trying too much too early and getting overuse injury. take days off, run miles easy, you have plenty of time for this goal and you arent going to make it all in one step.

goal wise year to year I think you want to hit ~4:25 next year, sub 4:20 junior year and then give sub 4:15 a run senior year

scromptious wrote:

Nigel_Bikes wrote:

What year in school will you be in September?

If you are talking about going from 4:44 to 4:10 this next track season my answer would be no.

Going from 4:44 to 4:30 I would say most likely yes.

Going from 4:44 to 4:25 I would say good chance.

Going from 4:44 to 4:20 I would say maybe.

These are just examples and are only based upon what training you posted. Year in school, age, height, weight, would be good indicators to know. Good luck this Fall in XC and then Track season!

I'm going into sophomore year. I'm 15 years old, 5'11, and 130lbs

Forget all the negative posts. Your future looks bright! Speed will be a big factor and your 400 and 200 development will be important but you're young, tall, weight is fine. Just be careful in not doing too much too fast and getting injured.

I'll say that you do have a legitimate shot, provided you stay healthy.

I'd say focus on being comfortable at 55-60mpw this summer and don't worry about 70mpw at all. Maybe bump up to 60-65 over the winter base phase if you're so inclines, especially since it's shorter than summer assuming you race indoor.

Regardless, 4:44 as a freshman off of 35mpw is very good. Especially assuming you have only been running a couple years, tops. You want to keep on building, and developing aerobically, but don't do too much quality wise right now over the summer. Be patient. It takes a while to develop aerobically. Keep in touch with your speed with occasional strides and maybe some hill sprints a few times a month. Just something easy.

Also, be sure to focus on increment goals. Having a goal of sub 4:10 by senior year is fine to keep in the back of your head, or to motivate yourself in the off seasons, but don't get fixated on it.

Think about other goals. Maybe aim for sub 4:30 this year, or aim for goals in other events. Try to hit nice XC, 3200m, and 800m PRs.

don't concern yourself with mileage so much as a high school mid-distance runner. you can average 60 your senior year and run very fast if your training is high quality. 4:10 does not require averaging 70+ for a year. you risk a lot by doing so and it's pretty unlikely that it's optimal training for you anyway. the sweet spot for stimulus, recovery and improvement is very likely at a smaller volume for you. and if it turns out you are talented, then your long-term mid-distance career will be a lot better off with more focus on strength/speed and less on endless miles during high school.

you can feel "fine" pushing your mileage up right now but it can have long term effects that limit the quality of your running for both workouts and races, and also limit the quality of your recovery, which is what actually determines how much you improve. you will rack up miles and then be flat when it counts but you won't even be able to tell because you're inexperienced and you will be improving, just not as much as you could be.

imo plan to average 60 your senior year and do a sensible build-up to that. if you can manage to have confidence with this mileage plan, and not have some fear of missing out on higher mileage, and you run your workouts well (don't overdo them) and you do all your ancillary stuff (strength work, stretching, massage, eat well, sleep well), you can do it. running your workouts properly is a huge advantage over a bunch of other idiotic high schoolers. and taking care of your body with those ancillary activities will provide another huge advantage over undisciplined high schoolers. finally, consistency will be a huge advantage (never overtraining, never undertraining, never getting injured)

Smart people talk from their brain instead of from their gut. Only 30 seniors broke 4:10 this year but 500 freshmen broke 4:45. So the chance of moving from one group to the next is very slim. You essentially have to pass 470 guys who also think that they can do it.

Friends that broke 4:20 as freshmen and others that broke 4:10 as seniors? You must live in a running hotbed.

Not Happening wrote:

Smart people talk from their brain instead of from their gut. Only 30 seniors broke 4:10 this year but 500 freshmen broke 4:45. So the chance of moving from one group to the next is very slim. You essentially have to pass 470 guys who also think that they can do it.

While you're right about the statistical probability of it being unlikely, you're also making assumptions about those 470 guys. I bet a lot of them don't have the goal of sub 4:10, and many of them may just do track to stay in shape for soccer or basketball.

I think with the right mentality and work ethic, 4:10 is a real possibility. If not, and he ends up being more inclined to distance races, sub 9 and a scholarship to a D1 school might be in his future.

I only say this because I cared about running in high school, and only ran 2:27 as a freshman for 800m. I was a bit of a late bloomer and didn't know much about running, and didn't work hard and get good until late in college, but I ran 1:52 after barely being a sub 5:00 miler in high school. So I know its possible based on the amount of talent the kid has already shown.

I have coached many guys who ran in the mid 4:30s as freshmen which is faster than the OP. Most were dedicated putting in summer runs and doing everything correctly during the season. They all thought they were locks to break the school record of 4:13. None did it. Most ended up in the low 4:20s. I never had a 4:44 freshman go on to break 4:20 in HS. I looked in Milesplit at the 4:10 seniors this year. Most ran about 4:25 as freshmen. Setting goals too high can be as discouraging as not establishing any goals. Shoot for 4:29 next year and settle for 4:32. Shoot for 4:22 as a junior and settle for4:25. Shoot for 4:18 as a senior and settle for 4:20. That is how you stay hungry and satisfied at the same time.

Not happening wrote:

I have coached many guys who ran in the mid 4:30s as freshmen which is faster than the OP. Most were dedicated putting in summer runs and doing everything correctly during the season. They all thought they were locks to break the school record of 4:13. None did it. Most ended up in the low 4:20s. I never had a 4:44 freshman go on to break 4:20 in HS. I looked in Milesplit at the 4:10 seniors this year. Most ran about 4:25 as freshmen. Setting goals too high can be as discouraging as not establishing any goals. Shoot for 4:29 next year and settle for 4:32. Shoot for 4:22 as a junior and settle for4:25. Shoot for 4:18 as a senior and settle for 4:20. That is how you stay hungry and satisfied at the same time.

I understand that it is highly unlikely, but where there's a will there's a way. I trust this board has a good amount of info but I'm not gonna let it mandate how I feel.

One of these 3 training partners of mine ran 5:00 flat their freshman year. Then ran 4:31 as a sophomore and 4:22 as a junior. The other ran 4:38 as a freshman and 4:16 as a sophomore. Our coach is an Olympic medalist and knows her stuff.

Not happening wrote:

I have coached many guys who ran in the mid 4:30s as freshmen which is faster than the OP. Most were dedicated putting in summer runs and doing everything correctly during the season. They all thought they were locks to break the school record of 4:13. None did it. Most ended up in the low 4:20s. I never had a 4:44 freshman go on to break 4:20 in HS. I looked in Milesplit at the 4:10 seniors this year. Most ran about 4:25 as freshmen. Setting goals too high can be as discouraging as not establishing any goals. Shoot for 4:29 next year and settle for 4:32. Shoot for 4:22 as a junior and settle for4:25. Shoot for 4:18 as a senior and settle for 4:20. That is how you stay hungry and satisfied at the same time.

I know it’s not typical to go from 4:45 to 4:09, but I feel like if you have freshman and in the 4:30s and they usually only run 4:20 by senior year then they were training really hard prior to freshman year or your training isn’t optimal.