The matchup of the year is here: Noah Lyles vs Michael Norman July 5th in Lausanne: Who you got?

Lyles

First off, thank you guys for doing your best this week to help letsrunners realize that Michael Norman is an absolute beast. He may very well be the next Carl Lewis/Michael Johnson/Usian Bolt. I would love to hear more news about him on this site. What is the story behind his decision not to run the final at the US champs? What is the story behind him racing as a professional in his USC singlet? What is his personality like? Etc.

Even though it is not his best event, I expect Norman to win. He is on fire and unbeatable right now. He obviously wants a huge contract, so this may be the biggest race of his life. And he seems to shine under pressure.

Rupp fan wrote:

First off, thank you guys for doing your best this week to help letsrunners realize that Michael Norman is an absolute beast. He may very well be the next Carl Lewis/Michael Johnson/Usian Bolt. I would love to hear more news about him on this site. What is the story behind his decision not to run the final at the US champs? What is the story behind him racing as a professional in his USC singlet? What is his personality like? Etc.

Even though it is not his best event, I expect Norman to win. He is on fire and unbeatable right now. He obviously wants a huge contract, so this may be the biggest race of his life. And he seems to shine under pressure.

He's not unbeatable if Lyles runs faster. I think it's more a question of who brings their A+ game. Norman surprised me today running that fast into a headwind but I threw it out there a long time ago Lyles might go undefeated this year at 200 and he's never lost a DL 200 so I'm still going with him. I didn't think Norman would run this fast for 200 this year but I didn't think Lyles would run as fast as he has for 100.

He didn't run the final at USAs because there was a nearly 3 hour rain delay. Not worth it to risk getting injured. He ran in USC singlet for same reason Benjamin did- they haven't signed a pro contract yet. Unless they've signed with Nike and Nike is super clever and wants them to act like they don't have a contract yet but I really doubt that.

His personality is great. Interacts with media well.

Lyles has run 9.88 advantage him.

Who will get outside lane?

I think Lyles has beat norman once or twice already in head to head. So probably he is a beast at the 200.

I am here, it is good and hot right now, which was a contributing factor to the Paris DL performances, Norman’s included.

Thursday is forecast to be a high of 76, and stormy. By race time it could be 70 degrees and maybe wet.

I would say that whoever is the “tougher” athlete will win—and just because he is a 400 guy, I give it to Norman—but if conditions are good, then to Lyles. 9.8’s are no joke and a big contributing factor to the 200m. It’s not like Norman dropped a 19.6.

LetsRun.com wrote:

The matchup we've all been waiting for is next Thursday in Lausanne with the US's two 20 year old sprint stars Michael Norman and Noah Lyles squaring off at 200m.

Lyles at first glance would be everyone's favorite as he's run 19.69 this year (and 19.83) while Norman has only clocked 19.84.

But Norman's run today was into a headwind (.6) while Lyle's best was with a 2.0 headwind. According to Jonas Mureika's wind calculator, Norman's run today in Paris is superior (worth 19.78 with no wind while Lyles run is worth 19.83 with no wind).

So who you got? Who will win and who are you rooting for?

http://jmureika.lmu.build/track/wind/200altwind.html

Lyles will devour Michael Norman like a hot meal of ugali and nyama choma and kachumbari on the side.

Mark my words.

Wind reading times are a bit difficult to actually model for the 200m.

The number given is an average of the wind across the duration of the event.

So in the 200m if the wind is swirling they could have a stront headwind during the bend where it matters less, then have a strong but more impactful tailwind during the straight and the overall wind reading would end up negative. Lane draw also affects how much the wind impacts you of course.

Also many other factors such as temperature have a big effect, and the Paris track is clearly a super fast surface. The wind reading is a nice talking point but it's very difficult to do an apples to apples comparison.

Anyway, I think Lyles can beat anyone in the world over 200m right now. I'd bet my house on him winning every race he enters.

Lyles by .1 or better. Perfect mechanics, better top end speed.

LetsRun.com wrote:

The matchup we've all been waiting for is next Thursday in Lausanne with the US's two 20 year old sprint stars Michael Norman and Noah Lyles squaring off at 200m.

Lyles at first glance would be everyone's favorite as he's run 19.69 this year (and 19.83) while Norman has only clocked 19.84.

But Norman's run today was into a headwind (.6) while Lyle's best was with a 2.0 headwind. According to Jonas Mureika's wind calculator, Norman's run today in Paris is superior (worth 19.78 with no wind while Lyles run is worth 19.83 with no wind).

So who you got? Who will win and who are you rooting for?

http://jmureika.lmu.build/track/wind/200altwind.html

Lyles - 19.5-6 vs Norman 19.7-8

Your analysis seems sensible but you're retarded as it comes if you think Paris is any faster of a track than Eugene. Combine Eugene's wacko track with a hardly legal tailwind and it's difficult not to put a huge asterisk over that time. Even Lyles' 19.83 had a hefty tailwind behind him at 1.5. Same with his 100 meters. Basically whenever he's in the race the wind is favorable.

That being said, I think Lyles will win because of the training that's been put under his belt since he ran that time. I'd love to be prove wrong.

So I was very wrong, but in my defense I know very little about sprinting lol. Thank you for compiling those interview links! Norman does indeed seem to have a wonderful personality and work ethic as does Rai Benjamin. Excellent interviews on both ends! I will be sure to spend more time watching these from now on.