Jim Walmsley/Western States has gotten more posts than all USA threads combined. Brojos remain silent.

Lol. Keep dreaming the dream little warrior. The 2:05 guys are what, 5-6 minutes faster than Walmsley on tough non paced marathon course? Those same 2:05 guys wilt during a little bad weather in Boston. Here we are not just talking about a 4 fold increase of distance but 20+ times the vertical on trails. It would be extremely surprising any of them would even finish such a thing let alone beat a top ultra mountain runner.

I remember in a thread about the Appalachian Trail Rojo stated that he believed Kipchoge could best the FKT if he trained for it.. .. .... ..

Jane Robertson wrote:

I remember in a thread about the Appalachian Trail Rojo stated that he believed Kipchoge could best the FKT if he trained for it.. .. .... ..

Sure, and if Kipchoge trained for the 200m he would surely run under 20 sec....not!

Absolutely. If he trained for the 110H, in a few weeks he would give Shubenkov a run for his money

I agree with this `' wrote:

Gonna lay the truth down wrote:

even if Kipchoge and Rupp trained for Western States they would still lose to Walmsley.

Very few pros are able to transition successful from the 5k to marathon, and going to 4 times the distance of a marathon at Western States, plus the many technical challenges is much more difficult than going from a 5k to the marathon.

Magdalena Lewy Boulet won Western States at age 41. Was she in a better shape than she was in 2011 when she ran her marathon PB? Better than 2007 when she qualified for the Olympics? Or was she able to win WS way past her physical prime?

Kipchoge: Walmsley

Mile -3:50 4:04

3000 - 7:27 8:03

5000 - 12:46 13:52 (yes he is a 13:52 runner, it is consistent with his other performances at that distance)

10000 - 26:49 29:08

marathon - 2:03 maybe 2:12?

These guys should not be in the same conversation. You are completely delusional if you think Kipchoge or 300 other Kenyans and Ethiopians are not capable of doing what these ultra guys are doing. The main ingredient for running hills is being skinny, and the East Africans have that in spades. Walmsley and Jornet are outstanding in their little competitive bubble, but the pool of talent is so small. Don't insult the East Africans by saying some nobody (relative to their times across every other distance) can beat them, it makes you sound like a racist. You sound like some rich white golf player.

Here's the best way I can say it:

SOME sub-2:06 guy could win Western States. But not EVERY sub-2:06 guy can win Western States.

Just like not every 2:15 guy could beat Jurek, but Walmsley is maybe a 2:15 guy who is suited for the event, and he crushes Jurek's times.

There is an elite marathoner out there who could take ultrarunning to a new level. Everyone knows that. Very few people deny that.

But it's probably some guy we've never heard of and not Kipchoge.

comedyrelief wrote:

Kipchoge: Walmsley

Mile -3:50 4:04

3000 - 7:27 8:03

5000 - 12:46 13:52 (yes he is a 13:52 runner, it is consistent with his other performances at that distance)

I agree it's ridiculous to compare Walmsley with Kipchoge, but it's ridiculous to compare just about any American runner in history with Kipchoge.

And if you've watched that video of the 13:52, and still say that he is just a 13:52 runner, that's like saying Rupp was only a 2:09 runner (when that was his best, though his performances indicated way better. If you were a coach or potential sponsor looking at recent college grads, who would you pick? Runners who came close to even pacing their college 5000 PRs in races where they were nowhere near the lead, also in the 13:50s, or Walmsley with that 13:52? Lane 2 most of the way, slow pacing 14:teens until last 1000, massively destroying the field with a big move. Like I said before, that had 13:30 runner written all over it. You don't destroy a field of runners like that without being much, much better than every else in it.

Take the splits, basically 68 seconds per lap until he started going and put it into a optimizer. This optimizer was used by trackbot!:

I entered 34, 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, 68, 64, 61, 61. He probably ran less evenly than that.That suggests that the 13:52 was really worth a 13:39.

Then just the being in lane two for half the race is an extra 54 meters that he ran over 5000 meters. At 13:52 pace, which is 6 meters per second, that is 9 seconds. Combine the two, and his 13:52 was really worth about 13:30.

comedyrelief wrote:

Kipchoge: Walmsley

Mile -3:50 4:04

3000 - 7:27 8:03

5000 - 12:46 13:52 (yes he is a 13:52 runner, it is consistent with his other performances at that distance)

10000 - 26:49 29:08

marathon - 2:03 maybe 2:12?

These guys should not be in the same conversation. You are completely delusional if you think Kipchoge or 300 other Kenyans and Ethiopians are not capable of doing what these ultra guys are doing. The main ingredient for running hills is being skinny, and the East Africans have that in spades. Walmsley and Jornet are outstanding in their little competitive bubble, but the pool of talent is so small. Don't insult the East Africans by saying some nobody (relative to their times across every other distance) can beat them, it makes you sound like a racist. You sound like some rich white golf player.

Thank's for the comedy relief. No thanks for the stupidity.

TheOhioState wrote:

comedyrelief wrote:

Kipchoge: Walmsley

Mile -3:50 4:04

3000 - 7:27 8:03

5000 - 12:46 13:52 (yes he is a 13:52 runner, it is consistent with his other performances at that distance)

10000 - 26:49 29:08

marathon - 2:03 maybe 2:12?

These guys should not be in the same conversation. You are completely delusional if you think Kipchoge or 300 other Kenyans and Ethiopians are not capable of doing what these ultra guys are doing. The main ingredient for running hills is being skinny, and the East Africans have that in spades. Walmsley and Jornet are outstanding in their little competitive bubble, but the pool of talent is so small. Don't insult the East Africans by saying some nobody (relative to their times across every other distance) can beat them, it makes you sound like a racist. You sound like some rich white golf player.

Thank's for the comedy relief. No thanks for the stupidity.

"Thanks."

Thanks to the brojos for the no-edit function.

Prophet dude wrote:

The way it’s trending within ten years ultras will be more popular than track and field and marathons. You heard it here first

Be careful what you wish for. More popularity leads to more money, which leads to influx of elite East Africans. They will take over the ultras just like they took over marathon.

TV Money wrote:

Prophet dude wrote:

The way it’s trending within ten years ultras will be more popular than track and field and marathons. You heard it here first

Be careful what you wish for. More popularity leads to more money, which leads to influx of elite East Africans. They will take over the ultras just like they took over marathon.

I can only speak for myself, but that would be fine for me as a fan of all running 100m to ultras to mountain runs.

Your time is what the clock reads at the end of the race, that is why the race is run. His other times in college were 13:55a, 14:00, 13:56a, 13:56, 14:16, and a smattering of other times over 14:00. So it is not a huge leap to say that his 13:52 is pretty representative of the best of his ability. I once had a roommate in college that swore he was a 14:00 5k runner only he was pulled off the track after getting lapped in a race that was ultimately won in 14:15.

Moran. That is all.

His 8:12 3km PR and Steeple were quite good. His 10km was over 29:00 and his cross country performances were not impressive. Hawks as an All American in cross country. King ran 8:40. Also got to love the speculation that Walms could "run a 2:11-2:12 marathon." He hasn't done anything to demonstrate that and it is unlikely will not run a competitive road event at a major marathon or half. Do you realize how many guys run just under 14:00 for 5km as a college PB and then never get remotely close to 2:12 for a full? Its all speculation though. Don't extract numbers that aren't there. Was he tested after Western States even?

zzzz wrote:

comedyrelief wrote:

Your time is what the clock reads at the end of the race, that is why the race is run. His other times in college were 13:55a, 14:00, 13:56a, 13:56, 14:16, and a smattering of other times over 14:00. So it is not a huge leap to say that his 13:52 is pretty representative of the best of his ability. I once had a roommate in college that swore he was a 14:00 5k runner only he was pulled off the track after getting lapped in a race that was ultimately won in 14:15.

Moran. That is all.

Posters treadmill and comedyrelief must not be real track/running fans, because they don't have track fan sense - the ability to recognize what is a good performance, and what it means for reasonably similar events physiologically. So Walmsley isn't a good distance guy because his 3000 and steeple were better than his 10000 and cross country? What he heck do you think he is doing well in now? How do you explain that in high school, his track times were slow, but he was national class in cross country? Doesn't it make more sense that he just didn't get into a fast 10,000 when he was in his top shape? You chose your direction/focus for a track season, you don't get to optimize all your results in all distances. I posit that he was in about 28:05 shape the day that he ran his 5000 PR. That's the 10000 equivalent of a 13:30 5000, which he was surely capable of that day. There isn't that much difference between 5000 and 10000 ability, like you are saying. If you really believe otherwise, you've never run at a high level.

We will get to see what he runs in the marathon at the Olympic Trials, no point in arguing about it now. Like I said in another thread, if sub-5:00 pace was comfortable for me for 6 mile tempos, when I never even had a college career, and didn't need anything faster than tempo efforts to get there, I can't imagine that 5:00 for a marathon would be that hard for someone several tiers above me in talent. 5:00 is just not that fast for a runner like Walmsley, even if you rarely go there in ultra training.

Testing is Western State's job, not Jim's. I'm guessing he was tested. WS conducted testing both last year, and this year. They didn't want to make it a big deal like last year, so it's just like any other race that tests. It's just not newsworthy who is chosen to be tested. Does any other race say to the news after every race, "we tested ________, ________, __________,______, _______, and ______"? NONE.

Damn, I can't resist. By that logic, Matt Centrowitz Jr is really a 3:40s or 3:50s 1500 runner. After all, he once went 21 races in the 3:40s and 3:50s between sub-3:40s. That 3:30 PR must be a typo or something. You and treadmill must never have raced at higher than a hobby jogger level, because you don't realize that in high level competition, very few races are PR-type time trials. You race for place in most races.

And you must be one of those guys that said Rupp was "only" a 2:09 marathoner, when he was solidly beating runners with much faster PRs in important marathons. I'm not saying that Walmsley's 5000 PR isn't 13:52. It is his PR. But that doesn't tell the whole story. He had 13:30 ability that day, I don't know how you can argue otherwise if you have any track logic. With further development, if he had chose that route, he could have been one of the top US track guys in the 5000/10000, marathon, and steeplechase.

zzzz wrote:

With further development, if he had chose that route, he could have been one of the top US track guys in the 5000/10000, marathon, OR steeplechase.

Edited/corrected to OR.

zzzz: by your "logic" any runner that runs a sub 14:00 5km negative split is also then a 28-min 10km runner and a sub 2:12 marathoner then? You keep extrapolating. We can only go by the facts of what Jim has run and all his actual race performances. He ran a 1:08 half marathon after college. Is that his best possible performance? Of course not. He wasn't training much. Could he run faster with specific training? Yes. But how much faster? 1:05 or 1:04...or 1:02? We don't know. Do you think every 13:52 5km runner says "oh I'm already a 62-min half and 2:11 full guy" now even though they have never run a marathon. No, guys run sub 14:00 for 5km on the track all the time. Many never pan out in the distance events. The real irony here is that Jim fan boys like you think Kipchoge and all the actual sub 2:08 marathon runners don't have what it takes to smash a record at Western States/100-miles because they don't have the stamina/endurance - whereas you reason that Jim smashes the record at Western States is because he is the fastest 5km track runner in the field and has a special ultra long distance gift. If you are going to extrapolate up in distance at least use actual marathon performances that are 1/4 of the race distance and times to make these wild guesses. Why on earth would a fast 3km/5km track time correlate better to a potential Western States 100 compared to a road marathon time? Re Drugs: The testing of PED use in ultras is rare compared to world class track and road events. It would be a big deal if they did any sort of testing.

A slight negative split 13:52 where the last half is a few seconds faster than the first is a lot different than Jim's actual PR race, which we are lucky to be able to watch in full. Any knowledgeable coach, spectator, commentator, or potential sponsor will know that intuitively.

Statsman's lap optimizer works well to put some good numbers on it in my experience. Try some different numbers in there, even splits (which will already be optimal), positive, very positive, slightly negative, very negative.

And there should be no argument at all about the extra distance in lane two that he ran (about 9 seconds worth) which could be avoided in a time trial type race where the field is strung out.

A 5K, 10K are very similar, especially beyond the hobby jogger level. 13:30 or 13:52 shape, that is fit enough that someone good in the 5 will be good in the 10. Remember when 1500 man Alan Webb jumped into a 10,000 and beat 10,000 man Ritzenhein in a fast race 27:34ish, not just a sit/kick race. When you have a lot of people actually race both, the 5,000 and 10,000 season lists have basically the same people on them in the same order. Think to all the Olympic/World Championships where the 5,000 and 10000 had close to the same podiums. The half marathon is also basically an extension of the 10,000 physiologically. It's only when you go to the marathon that a large fraction of runners don't make the same jump because a lot of runners (me included) have fueling issues and bonk or cramp in the marathon. HM WR holder Tadese is a prime example of someone who couldn't extend his ability to the marathon. Ritzenhein also has had mixed success, and has cramped up in several marathons (not making the last Olympic team). But below that, the body's energy system usage for the 5,10, and HM are 99+% the same.

Don't put me in with the Kipchoge doubters. I'm firmly in with the idea that talent in distance running is talent. We know a lot of people have fueling and cramping issues, so they might not make the jump from HM to marathon or beyond with the same success. But for those who do, and also make the additional (but lesser) hurdles of durability and ability to eat while running, and who also love doing the type of training that will optimize their ultra/trail performance, I believe that they would smash it also. My only doubt with Kipchoge is his desire to do that type of training. Why would he unless he finds in interesting? If he wants to do it, and does the same type of training on the same trails as Walmsley, I'm sure he would smash Walmsley in ultras, trails, etc. But without that training, NO, his talent isn't enough. But why are we even talking about Kipchoge? He has never expressed interest in ultras. Why talk about the GOAT marathoner as if someone can't compare to him, then that person sucks? Or that ultras suck because he doesn't race them? Bizarre. Guess what? The HM WR holder sucks big time compared to Kipchoge in the marathon.

Again, small differences in 5/10K/steeplechase performance are a matter of circumstance, and are not really real most of the time. Yes, the marathon is different and closer to ultras, but young talent in the US just haven't done the training to do well (in this era at least) coming out of college. Runners in that pipeline in the US have generally taken a long time to even debut in the marathon. Rupp debuted at age 29. In my age group era, many track 10,000 guys didn't even try a marathon until they were about ready to retire if at all (Bob Kennedy). And not that I had a running career, but I didn't bother doing a marathon until I was 42 and double the age of when I was in my prime. So you can't look at marathon performances as indicators in young talent.

So what I'd suggest when looking at and evaluating potential ultra talent in young runners, is to look at a person's very best performance in 1500-10,000 range (well 1500 for those inclined to also do longer distances), and that's that talent indicator, without trying to draw conclusions like "maybe they are slightly better in the 5 vs. the 10". Again, that difference is mainly circumstance, opportunity, or focus. They are the same physiologically. A 10,000 is really not a good race to look at because most of them are not time trials, and people don't want to do many of them in a college season. Only those that end up doing those very few time trial 10,000s that are held per year in the US have a chance of running a really good time, so the 10,000 will often not be the most indicative of talent even for the true distance runners. Even Jordan Hasay with her talent obviously in the long distances (at least to me) didn't debut in the 10,000 until her senior year in college, instead doing a ton of 1500s and getting her ass kicked.

So take the best of the 1500-10000 talent as the indicator. If they are terrible at ultras, maybe they have that fueling/cramping issue and are like Tadese (and me), might as well stick to shorter stuff. But if they do well in ultras, you can assume they don't have the fueling and cramping issues, even if they haven't raced any or many marathons.

Of course, there will be still be ultra studs who didn't run in college, or didn't run that fast in college. Jared Hazen and Andrew Miller have been 3rd and 1st at age 19/20 at Western States. I'm leaving that out of this discussion because there's not much to compare there, except actual ultra race results.