Who will have a better 'second act'? Will Greg Rutherford be a better cyclist or Gwen Jorgensen a better runner?

semi_pro wrote:

I honestly think they both have pretty good shots at doing well. Both top level athletes who clearly are gifted. My one big question is why isn't Gwen focusing on the 10k this Olympics? It is obviously where her strengths are at this point and her best shot at success. If transitioning to a new sport, why not start with what you're best at? Then, if her heart is really in the 'thon, move up once she has some experience as a pro runner and can make a smoother, smarter, and more natural transition. I just think going straight to the marathon is too much too soon. It is already clear that she can immediately mix it up at the top level in the 10k.

The "top level" in the 10k is now 29:15. Gwen Jorgensen is great, but she has not shown that she could even run 14:37 for 5k in 2 years, much less match the Ethiopian Doping Wonders for twice that distance.

She just placed 7th in the National 10k, so I don't see how you think she would be able to Gold-medal in two years against the world.

Also, she is 32 years old (just turned), so she will be 38 years old during the 2024. How well do you think she would do at 38?

Gwen had been a strong D1 college distance runner at Wisconsin, then got into triathlon later. So in a way, she's returning to a former sport that she was already pretty strong at. She has lots of opportunity to improve as a marathoner and contend for a spot on the US team at the trials given all the variables with putting together a peak effort on race day. She could be one of the top 10 US women at the trials, and she just needs to out-compete 8 of them.

umm.... I never said she would gold medal in 2 yrs at the 10k. Did you actually read anything I wrote? I just said that is where she is strongest, right now. She can mix it up at the top of the 10k (not necessarily win just yet) but she is a non-factor in the marathon. And, yes - when she is 38, she can be very competitive in the marathon. It is not hard to find lots of examples of people doing that in recent years on the men's and women's side. I think she has tons of potential, but she should proceed gradually, not just shoot for the moon. But who knows - when someone is extremely talented and believes in her/himself, they can really surprise the doubters.

semi_pro wrote:

She can mix it up at the top of the 10k (not necessarily win just yet

She can mix it up USA B team - which makes her incredibly insignificant versus real runners.

99% of speed skaters with 2 weeks of velo training would be better than Rutherford's best .

LennyZ wrote:

6'2", 192 lbs will be challenging. It will all depend on how well he can get his body into an efficient aero position on the bike, while generating maximum power. Some athletes can generate their best power from this collapsed position, some can't. There are few guys that size that can do it, but there are some. Taylor Phinney comes to mind at 6'4" 185. Gregis going to have to have an off the charts aerobic engine to move that kind of weight, and the ability to put his head down and suffer. Not sure long jump developed that. For example, Bradley Wiggins is 6'3" 152 lbs which gives him an amazing power to weight ratio, and of course he has a one in a million aerobic capacity.

Cool story bro.