And how does the race play out? Who is favored in a slow or fast race?
Galen has more experience in sit and kicks and has shown he can close well (ie Chicago last year) and has experience on the course. He takes it in a slow race.
Farah has experience in fast paced races and can go out in 61 and at least still somewhat survive. Take it out in an even 63 and Farah might be able to chop in down and outrun Galen. Yes, Galen went out in 63 flat at Prague and managed it well, but that's probably a pace that suits both of them equally well, only in this case, I think Farah can close faster if the first half is respectable. It won't go out any faster than 64:00 though.
Overall I think there's a higher chance Galen wins in a slow race than Farah winning in a fast race, and with Galen's experience I'll give the nod to him.
Okay so Mo actually does join Galen in Chicago, who wins?
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I think it's going to be a lot of matching moves and a sprint finish. One of them will take it 5-6 miles out and it's more likely to be Rupp, but Farah will try and counter it 3-4 miles out.
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Mo has no kick in a marathon, 3:28 speed is useless. Pace will go out in 65:00, Galen edges.
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sidity wrote:
Mo has no kick in a marathon, 3:28 speed is useless. Pace will go out in 65:00, Galen edges.
I'm no Farah fan, but based on their previous head-to-heads and general past records, what is there to suggest Rupp will beat him? Farah (through whatever dodgy means he's had at his disposal) has almost without exception always beat Rupp (with whatever dodgy means he's had at his disposal) over any distance.
As for "Farah has no kick in a marathon" - he's only run one (bar the shameless money grab in London from a few years back) and that was a race that had a first half in 61. Did you expect him to have a "kick" there? -
NOP Skeptic wrote:
And how does the race play out? Who is favored in a slow or fast race?
Galen has more experience in sit and kicks and has shown he can close well (ie Chicago last year) and has experience on the course. He takes it in a slow race.
Farah has experience in fast paced races and can go out in 61 and at least still somewhat survive. Take it out in an even 63 and Farah might be able to chop in down and outrun Galen. Yes, Galen went out in 63 flat at Prague and managed it well, but that's probably a pace that suits both of them equally well, only in this case, I think Farah can close faster if the first half is respectable. It won't go out any faster than 64:00 though.
Overall I think there's a higher chance Galen wins in a slow race than Farah winning in a fast race, and with Galen's experience I'll give the nod to him.
Galen's only chance is to take it out fast, and we know that isn't going to happen. H was Mo's whipping boy on the track, and with 5k or 10k to go he will be mo's whipping boy again.
Mo ran 2:06 in a hot marathon, where he lost up to 1 min dealing with 2 drink station fiascos.
However, their both with Nike, so who knows. A fix could be in play. -
There won't be a rabbit. So, in the real world, it will go out in 1:04 high, and Rupp will try and go at 20, Farah will sit on him, and kick for the win.
But since it's All Nike, there will be a fix. Farah will fade for the first time ever. (You do know Lopes would have won NYC 82 if he'd just stayed in it, right?) -
I think Farah believes he can beat Rupp basically any day, as evidenced by their past results. And Mo can pretty much guarantee the rest of the field is easy by picking this race with Galen, because a) Salazar wants limited competition and b) these two will hog all the domestic signing money. So Farah is doing this for two or three reasons, which are a big payday, a probable win, and reminding Rupp that he has his number.
This race is likely to be decided by whatever other entrant joins the field and may push the pace. These two will unquestionably run together, so their races depend upon the other elites. -
FFF wrote:
There won't be a rabbit. So, in the real world, it will go out in 1:04 high, and Rupp will try and go at 20, Farah will sit on him, and kick for the win.
But since it's All Nike, there will be a fix. Farah will fade for the first time ever. (You do know Lopes would have won NYC 82 if he'd just stayed in it, right?)
Can you elaborate on Lopes and NYC82? What went down? Thanks. -
NYC 82 was Carlos Lopes' first marathon, and he planned on, and did drop out at about the 20 mile mark. His only intent was to see the viability in running the marathon in the 84 Olympics.
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Reallly? wrote:
sidity wrote:
Mo has no kick in a marathon, 3:28 speed is useless. Pace will go out in 65:00, Galen edges.
I'm no Farah fan, but based on their previous head-to-heads and general past records, what is there to suggest Rupp will beat him? Farah (through whatever dodgy means he's had at his disposal) has almost without exception always beat Rupp (with whatever dodgy means he's had at his disposal) over any distance.
The marathon is such a unique distance that any head to head match ups at lower distances is irrelevant. There could be a psychological factor with Farah knowing he's beat Rupp many times, but even he knows from training with Rupp that he gets better as the distance gets higher. Rupp would never beat him in a 15/5, but Farah would be a fool not to keep his eye on him in the 10k. Even Rupp was closing on him in London. Now, we're talking about the marathon, a whole nother animal.
Rupp, credential-wise in my opinion is still a more proven marathoner, especially in sit and kicks. Take them to Berlin/London, maybe even Tokyo, Dubai, sure, Farah wins every time. This isn't the case. -
Pacers, this ought to be interesting
Any chance for a sub 2:05? -
As epic as it would be to see these two taunting each other early on, trading the lead back and forth in the final 10k, and trying to outkick each other in the last mile, we have to remember that this isn’t WWE. These marathon rivalries are almost always anticlimatic or never happen at all. I predict that at least one of them pulls out before race day, drops out due to injury/illness, or just has such a bad day that the rivalry turns into a non-issue as the latest unknown Kenyan/Ethiopian comes out of nowhere to challenge for the win only to disappear back into 5th—15th place in future marathons until the organizers stop inviting them.
I will go with Rupp simply because I expect Farah to drop out or no-show in order to “save face” if he is not 100% sure he can beat Rupp. If Farah is still in the race at 20 miles and in Rupp’s general vicinity, Farah becomes a significant favorite though. But Rupp’s heart, toughness, and experience still give him a good chance even in this case. -
Does anyone even consider Mo Farah's age? It might catch up to him.
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They will probably go through half way in around 62-63 minutes and than Galen will go through the second half in 61 minutes. Finishing in around 2:03-2:04 for the American record. No won't be able to keep up with Galen and finish in around 2:04-2:05 for a new Birtsh record.
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Reallly? wrote:
and that was a race that had a first half in 61. Did you expect him to have a "kick" there?
Smartest comment on this thread. It's all downhill from here. -
rupp with his olympic medal showed he was capable of 205 off the get go.
farah 61 half with british record shows he's 205 material right there.
who ever is better on the day will win.
probably rupp is better suited to the marathon than hi-octane farah.
but if i had to bet who would run a 2:01 marathon first, it would be definitely farah. because that is high octane.
in the realm of the real world, in chicago i take rupp over farah in 205 high with good conditions - by a minute or so. -
They almost certainly won't both start the race, but if that were to happen, look forward to post race interviews about the months long nagging injury the loser has been battling.
My money is on Rupp for the win. To my eyeball he's the better marathoner. -
I don't know if either will win outright without knowing all the elite athletes that will be running, but I'll take Mo over Galen.
