Doping experts, why would a distance athlete like Kiprop be on EPO at the end of the year?

Hmm... why do you think there would be "doping experts" on LRC, willing to speak?

Rojo, ask Paula and Gary.

what year were they talking about you see the new year could be any month https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year

rojo wrote:

Not being an expert on how to actually dope....

Stunning. Just stunning.

Probably because he wasn't being tested as often (if at all until now) in the off season and figured he could take more. In season he knows he could potentially be tested at any race and can only microdose.

Asbel was pretty terrible in 2017. I would guess that he was looking for a short cut to get back into top condition and thought that the odds of an out of season test in Kenya were low enough to risk it. It may also have been an attempt to treat an injury. Some in the doping world believe that EPO can speed recovery from injury significantly by boosting red blood cell count.

Precious Roy wrote:

Some in the doping world believe that EPO can speed recovery from injury significantly by boosting red blood cell count.

Sources?

Doping expert? wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Some in the doping world believe that EPO can speed recovery from injury significantly by boosting red blood cell count.

Sources?

I've heard that too, but it seems like just another excuse to me.

Doping expert? wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Some in the doping world believe that EPO can speed recovery from injury significantly by boosting red blood cell count.

Sources?

Anecdotal.

rojo wrote:

"Why would someone be on EPO at the end of the year? Not knowning the ins and outs of how to dope, that makes little sense to me"

Perhaps this makes sense, he's been on PEDs at the end of the year, the middle of the year and the start of the year for years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years ...

...but just happened to get caught this time.

reed wrote:

Doping expert? wrote:

Sources?

I've heard that too, but it seems like just another excuse to me.

It might, but it's still hard to believe he would compete clean for years and then risk his reputation at this stage of his career

Hardloper wrote:

reed wrote:

I've heard that too, but it seems like just another excuse to me.

It might, but it's still hard to believe he would compete clean for years and then risk his reputation at this stage of his career

If you have been beating the system for over ten years, what's one more season?

Far from an expert - but here's my thoughts:

For one, not enough information.

Was it a positive for CERA? First generation EPO? Is Kiprop part of the ABP?

If it was CERA (Ramzi's positive) which has a very long glow time (half-live of 130-140 hours) vs the 19-24 hours for first gen EPO (non micro-dose) that could be factor with his last dose vs the timing of OOC test.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24319242

If KIprop is part of the ABP and was regularly using EPO, this would maintain elevated Hgb & RET% and probably not raise suspicion as long as he stays within the parameters of his baseline #s. But once you discontinue an ESA, Hgb & RET% drop precipitously jacking up your off-score raising a flag and consequently warranting target testing. OTOH, too much of an ESA would raise Hgb & RET% breaching the upper parameters also raising a flag and resulting in target testing. Same result - just different methods that raised ABP flags.

Also, the sensitivity of EPO test for micro-dosing has improved significantly:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/dta.1579

Not an Expert (are there experts?), but doping in the off-season lets you handle huge loads of base training at high volume/moderately fast pace without totally draining you for the season. The off-season is exactly when you want to dope because the testing is less frequent and thats when you get those training gainz. During the season your subject to testing all the time if you win major competitions.

My guess is he's been doing it for a long time and the sensitivity of the tests is finally catching up to the less scientific monitoring of rural africa. But that's just speculation

Rojo is an FBI informant.

Unfortunately, given what we know, it's impossible to give good answers to all of your questions. Because the science of doping is unsettled, we don't know what role EPO would play in a scientifically based doping protocol for someone like Kiprop. And because athletics hasn't had a Lance Armstrong, we don't know for sure what protocols dopers are using.

To complicate matters, we don't know the basics of Kiprop's bust. We don't know what the evidence is, or where he was in his racing, training or doping cycle. We don't even know what country he was in when he was tested! Yet any of these could affect the answers to your questions.

If the reports are right and he failed an out-of-competition test in late 2017, it seems most likely was using EPO as part of his training routine. The idea is simple -- by boosting endurance, EPO allows athletes to train harder. This is the rationale behind altitude training, since lower oxygen levels boost EPO production.

As to whether using EPO during the off-season is less risky than during the season, again, it depends. Looking at the USADA statistics suggests that isn't the case in the US. USADA usually conducts two or three times more out-of-competition tests than in-competition tests, and tests a lot during the off-season. Since winners and high-profile runners get tested most often in-competition, you'd think someone like Kiprop would get tested a lot during the season.

Who know what the calculation is like for Kenya.

It has to be said wrote:

As to whether using EPO during the off-season is less risky than during the season, again, it depends. Looking at the USADA statistics suggests that isn't the case in the US.

Oops. That should read:

As to whether using EPO during the season is less risky than during the off-season, again, it depends. Looking at the USADA statistics suggests that isn't the case in the US.

With the advent of the blood passport everyone needed to microdose their way to the highest possible hematocrit levels and then STAY there. You can't go on EPO suddenly for a race otherwise your blood values will change way too much. Using it in the offseason only is stupid as well.

The reason he would be microsdosing in the offseason is, ironically enough, IN CASE HE GETS TESTED! If you're completely off it and you get tested then you're screwed because if you go back on it then the blood passport will see your values have changed too much.

Just to make sure you understand this: the ABP has inadvertently turned these guys into year round 24/7 dopers. It's the only safe way to dope anymore.

Sidenote: There is something about the podium pictures that tell a story of how someone earned their way onto it. Typically you can look back at those caught doping and see they often didn't look happy after races. No smiling. Is that a heavy conscious? Of course there are plenty examples of dopers who are plenty happy, such as Marion Jones, but I wonder if in their head they don't feel like they are cheating and so are happy.