Be honest. Do I have any chance of breaking 5 for the 1600 in a year's time?

yes.

it's not likely, but not impossible. I'd say 5:15 would be a realistic goal and 5:00 the dream goal if everything goes right.

good luck!

Yeah it's definitely possible, especially if you train over the winter. The season that I broke 5 in HS I started at 2:20, 5:20 for the first meet of the season, finished at 4:58, 2:11.

Sub 5 is not like a ridiculous time that only genetics can achieve, most healthy males could get close if they trained hard enough for long enough.

Good Luck!

Thank you both for your responses.

How quickly do you all think I can tolerate higher mileage? I am eager to start putting in 50-60 miles a week because I have heard from so many that high mileage is the key to reaching my potential. I did not mention this before, but I really want to run an 18:45 or better for cross country this fall. Believe it or not, I feel rather more capable of that than the sub-5 1600.

Unfortunately, the most we've done this season is about 30, and the only reason it's not lower is we sometimes do an 8 mile long run on Fridays.

I feel absolutely great at this mileage, no injuries of any kind. This leads me to believe I can tolerate higher mileage, but I know jumping straight from 30 to 50 miles per week is not advisable.

How rapidly can I possibly increase mileage without getting injured?

i believe the common wisdom is to increase mileage by no more than 10% in a week. so from 30 mpw you could safely bump up to 50 mpw in 2 to 3 months. but at that point it's really important that you're paying attention to good form and having the rigth shoes, etc or injuries are sure to follow.

can you describe the kind of workouts you're doing, or what an average week looks like?

think about it wrote:

i believe the common wisdom is to increase mileage by no more than 10% in a week. so from 30 mpw you could safely bump up to 50 mpw in 2 to 3 months. but at that point it's really important that you're paying attention to good form and having the rigth shoes, etc or injuries are sure to follow.

can you describe the kind of workouts you're doing, or what an average week looks like?

An average week with no meets looks like this:

Monday: 5.5 miles at about 7:20 pace

Tuesday: 5km tempo run on the track at 1:36 per lap/20 minute finish time

Wednesday: 16×200m, each one in 33 seconds or less with a jogging rest

Thursday: 12×400, each one in 1:25 or less with a jogging rest

Friday: 8 miles at about 8:00 pace on a very hilly route

yeah 95% chance you do it. just run lots of miles and don't get injured

Runs like 29's at a crappy college wrote:

Sub 5 is not like a ridiculous time that only genetics can achieve, most healthy males could get close if they trained hard enough for long enough.

OP, more likely than not is a female.

Obvious! wrote:

Runs like 29's at a crappy college wrote:

Sub 5 is not like a ridiculous time that only genetics can achieve, most healthy males could get close if they trained hard enough for long enough.

OP, more likely than not is a female.

Dude's a dude, dude. You don't read good.

Your M,T, W paces seem faster than necessary relative to your 3200 time. I'd back those paces down and add easy miles warmup and cooldown to those days.

http://www.runworks.com/calculator.html

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=3522061&thread=3521677

I am usually pessimistic in threads like this because people hope too much, but for you, I say this is a real possibility.

Here's why:

1) You aren't running that much at all. Get up to 45 MPW by end of the summer, keep your mileage around that level through the season, and then get it to 50 in the winter. To avoid injury during your buildup, increase mileage for 2 weeks and then step it back and week and then increase again, etc.

2) It is common for high school runners to improve greatly between their junior and senior years, especially if they haven't been running to the moon all of high school.

3) Also, I have seen it happen, and even WAY better than you are hoping for. I know a kid who ran 5:28 for the 1600 as an 8th grader. A year later as a freshman in high school, he ran the 3200 in 9:45 and the 1600 in 4:40.

I think it's possible you could smash 5:00 by a lot. Gotta do the work...the mileage is the key here. Gotta stay healthy. Gotta keep the love of running.

Good luck!

zoo_manimal wrote:

Obvious! wrote:

OP, more likely than not is a female.

Dude's a dude, dude. You don't read good.

Do you want to think about your effort to judge my reading ability? Look how you write? Do you know when to use good? Do you know when to use well? You are a natural fool!

Citizen Runner wrote:

Your M,T, W paces seem faster than necessary relative to your 3200 time. I'd back those paces down and add easy miles warmup and cooldown to those days.

http://www.runworks.com/calculator.htmlhttp://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=3522061&thread=3521677

Like I said, the only reason I am running the 3200 so slow during meets is because I have to run the 4x800, 1600, and 800 right before it. My legs always feel like cement by that point. In all honesty, I think I am capable of 11:35-11:40 with fresh legs and ample energy. The 20 minute 5km tempo is not really that hard for me. In March, I ran 20:36 in a local road race. The course was extremely hilly, and it was 40 degrees with biting wind and torrential rain. I think I am capable of 19:00-19:20 under ideal conditions.

Yes

It's very possible I am now a junior in high school my freshman year I had a 6:40 mile in winter and by the end of that years spring season I had a 5:06 mile

last year my sophomore season I missed the winter season due too leg surgery and started of my spring with a 5:30 but by the end of the season I got down to a 4:44(which Ik isn't that good) and I had pretty much same workload as u so just run ur race push pass what u think is ur limits and you should be fine

Sub5Hopeful wrote:

An average week with no meets looks like this:

Monday: 5.5 miles at about 7:20 pace

Tuesday: 5km tempo run on the track at 1:36 per lap/20 minute finish time

Wednesday: 16×200m, each one in 33 seconds or less with a jogging rest

Thursday: 12×400, each one in 1:25 or less with a jogging rest

Friday: 8 miles at about 8:00 pace on a very hilly route

7:20 pace is too fast for your easy runs. When I was in HS we ran a similar pace when I was a 5:00ish miler and I recall it being too hard. So slow it down, maybe to 7:50 pace.

Also, I'm guessing you aren't running on weekends at all? Why not? You are missing out on a lot of potential improvement by skipping 2 days in a row.

Lastly, it isn't very smart to run 3-4 hard days in a row. If the coach is willing to listen, I'd recommend having an easy run day in between your harder days.

When I can, I do run on the weekends: 5 easy miles on Saturday, 6 on Sunday. Lately, however, we have been having meets on Saturdays, and my coach wants Sunday to be a rest day.

Too many words bro. All you needed to post was your age and sex. 5:00 for the 1600 in a years time is doable for just about any non overweight post pubescent male. My only advice is to aim faster. Don't let your dreams be dreams.

You write really well for a HS student. Between that, and attending an inner-city school, you've got some pretty good grist for your college applications. You absolutely can break 5 next year if you increase your mileage and train better - so keep reading, learning, and experimenting - but good luck also with the college applications.

You should probably be cautious with working up to 60 mile ish weeks. Sounds like more of a good goal for mileage as a senior unless you’re exceptionally durable. As a ridiculously injury prone runner I had some success increasing in 5 week chunks. If I were starting at 25 mpw and 5 days/week, I’d do something like this:

Week 1: 25 mpw over 5 days

Week 2: 25 mpw over 4 days

Week 3: 32 mpw over 5 days

Week 4: 32 mpw over 5 days

Week 5: 32 mpw over 5 days

Week 6: 32 mpw over 5 days

Week 7: 32 mpw over 4 days

Week 8: 40 mpw over 5 days

You’d probably be fine increasing faster than this, but my legs are practically made of glass and this worked well for me. I also do everything in time instead of miles, which I recommend. I like increasing by dropping a day but not dropping weekly mileage because then you make each day a little longer but get more rest to counter it. Then the next week you keep the higher daily mileage but add that day back.

Anyway this thread got my attention because we had almost identical PRs. First season my best 5k was 25, ran about 2:45/6:15/14:15 in track later. Average 10-15 mpw in season with very little preseason training. Started this season (first real meet, not counting winter practice meets) at 5:57/2:39 maxing out at ~ 20 mpw. Ended up getting hurt soon after and my mileage went to hell before I even started doing hard workouts, oh well...

Pretty sure I won’t be breaking 5 ever since I’m a girl and few girls can but it seems to me you definitely have potential to run sub 5, it doesn’t take an extreme amount of talent and I think you have enough.

Thank you for your advice.

I feel I am at least somewhat durable. To test myself during the winter, I did a few 10 mile runs at 8:00 mile pace (on the track so I could pace myself accurately). I felt pretty great throughout and woke up the next day with zero soreness in my legs. To be fair, I did these 10 mile runs at the end of pretty low mileage weeks, likely only totaling 20-25 miles in the preceding days. However, my lack of discomfort leads me to believe I have some strength in my legs. I will probably try increasing my mileage a bit faster than you did, but I understand your caution. The last thing I want to do is end up injured. I think I'm going to go by feel: increase while I'm feeling good but back off when I feel bad. It will probably be 12 to 13 weeks before I can hit 60 miles per week consistently.