Official 2018 London Marathon Live Discussion Thread

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Bootsontheground

2 years ago 04/20/2018 7:30am CDT

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The organisers alongside with Hermens&Sang agreed that a final decision will be taken tomorrow morning. They are debating either 61:00 or 61:30. Anyways it seems way too fast for the weather forecasted!

LRC update: The official paces were posted by Mo Farahon an instagram story http://www.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screenshot-2018-04-21-at-19.06.15.png . Ideal pace would be slower in our book on men's side even despite downhill in first 3 miles.

Update from Rojo. I am turning this into the official thread.

Women's race is at 4:15 am ET. Men's is at 5:00 am ET.

TV info here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/television-streaming-info-start-times-2018-london-marathon/

Results and tracking info:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/london-marathon-results-2018-london-marathon-resultstracking-live-leaderboard/

I'll probably be joining you all at the halfway point so let me make my prediction. Have we not learned anything from Boston 2011 or Boston 2018 (or sub-2)? The weather matters A LOT. There is NO CHANCE for a WR due to the heat. Mid 60s isn't warm for non-runners but it's too warm for a marathon WR. Let's hope we see some epic clashes though as Bekele vs Kipchoge and Dibaba vs Keitany are two great clashes.

PS. I'm merging this thread with the pacing thread. THe pace is way too hot given the weather.
weather isn't bad

2 years ago 04/20/2018 8:13am CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish. That isn't too bad. https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/hourly-weather-forecast/328328?hour=57
Kiochokele WR

2 years ago 04/20/2018 8:14am CDT
re: weather isn't bad

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weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish. That isn't too bad. https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/hourly-weather-forecast/328328?hour=57

With a slight breeze as well. Sounds awesome to me.
Banana Bread

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2 years ago 04/20/2018 8:16am CDT
re: weather isn't bad

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How hot was it in Calcutta when Bekele destroyed everyone in the 25k, without any effort? It must have been hot there. Bekele should be ready for a world record in London. The way the time cold I want to be keeping you warm. I got the right temperature to shelter you from the storm.
Bootsontheground

2 years ago 04/20/2018 8:24am CDT
re: Banana Bread

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Didn't bekeke struggle in the heat during WCC one-time?
Bek ready

2 years ago 04/20/2018 12:14pm CDT
re: Banana Bread

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Banana Bread wrote:

How hot was it in Calcutta when Bekele destroyed everyone in the 25k, without any effort? It must have been hot there. Bekele should be ready for a world record in London. The way the time cold I want to be keeping you warm. I got the right temperature to shelter you from the storm.

65F, with more humidity. So it equates to 70-72 in London.

Hardloper

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2 years ago 04/20/2018 12:22pm CDT
re: weather isn't bad

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weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish.

Probably because WRs are only set in the 40's and 50's F
Bootsontheground

2 years ago 04/20/2018 3:12pm CDT
re: Hardloper

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Gideon Kipketer will be the chief pacer yet again.
reed

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2 years ago 04/20/2018 4:04pm CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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Let's hope for 61:45 or so.

But as long as the pace is even (no insane 14:15 first 5k) it won't matter too much.

It's only gonna take a 2:04 to win anyway, at best.
Bootsontheground

2 years ago 04/21/2018 3:49am CDT
re: reed

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reed wrote:

Let's hope for 61:45 or so.

But as long as the pace is even (no insane 14:15 first 5k) it won't matter too much.

It's only gonna take a 2:04 to win anyway, at best.

61:15 is the final decision for men. 67:30 for women.
KAV

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2 years ago 04/21/2018 8:02am CDT
re: Hardloper

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Hardloper wrote:

weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish.

Probably because WRs are only set in the 40's and 50's F

It seems some of these guys have never run themselves. SMH
Stopcecil!

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2 years ago 04/21/2018 9:20am CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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I think the men's WR is far softer than the mixed women's WR. I see the men's going down, but not the women's. It's completely possible DIbaba and Keitany blow up and someone runs them down. But I think Dibaba will judge the race better and get it.

vivalarepublica

2 years ago 04/21/2018 9:27am CDT
re: weather isn't bad

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weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish. That isn't too bad. https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/hourly-weather-forecast/328328?hour=57

In those conditions, i am sweating buckets within the first mile or two. That's hot for a hot-paced marathon.
Not weatherman or historian

2 years ago 04/21/2018 9:45am CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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Kimetto's WR on Sep 28, 2014
Race started at 9:15 am.

Reported weather -
https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lang/en-us/berlin-weather-history/berlin/de.aspx

Conditions 9a Sunny 12p Sunny
Temp 9a 61f 12 p 71f
Feels like 9a 61f 12p 71f
Wind 4 mph SSW 5 mph SSQ
Gusts 6 mph 6 mph
Clouds 5% 14%
Humdiity 65% 52%
Precop 0 0
Pressure 31 in 31 in

Runners World article "which was held in near-perfect cool and sunny conditions"
https://www.runnersworld.com/newswire/dennis-kimetto-breaks-world-record-at-berlin-marathon

A few days before RW wrote -
https://www.runnersworld.com/newswire/what-to-look-for-at-sundays-berlin-marathon
"The weather in Berlin is forecast to be a sunny 60-65°F on Sunday morning. "
man you are dumb

2 years ago 04/21/2018 11:02am CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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Bootsontheground wrote:

Didn't bekeke struggle in the heat during WCC one-time?

LOLOL that was in Mombasa, Kenya, and it was about 95 degrees or something. Not even comparable!!!

It is also hot overnight there and basically impossible to cool, while London will be jacket weather in the morning.
Rockstar Games

2 years ago 04/21/2018 11:18am CDT
re: Bootsontheground

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61:15? There will be some bodies from 20-30km that's for sure. I recall that Berlin 2016 was insane with a 61:12 or thereabouts.

If the non favorites are smart and split a 62:10 in a compact group it's very possible that they can pick up the pieces during the second half.

The pacers are being paid so 61:15 will happen nonetheless, I imagine those are guys with 60 flat half credentials.
Nwmaster

2 years ago 04/21/2018 12:44pm CDT
re: vivalarepublica

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[b]vivalarepublica wrote: In those conditions, i am sweating buckets within the first mile or two. That's hot for a hot-paced marathon.

Good to know! Your insights are in invaluable! How is the lobotomy scar healing?
Nwmaster

2 years ago 04/21/2018 12:45pm CDT
re: Nwmaster

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*are invaluable
kaksi

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2 years ago 04/21/2018 12:50pm CDT
re: Nwmaster

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Farah just made instagram story with pacemakers splits. First group should go 61:00 and the second group 61:45. Seems pretty close for 2 groups.
jhand366

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2 years ago 04/21/2018 1:20pm CDT
re: weather isn't bad

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Agreed...
and I hope they go out at 61:30! 61 is stupid... they keep going out faster than world record pace for half, but not getting the record, I want to see what they do with even or a slight-positive split.