5000m Time Trial tonight - trying to break 15:00 for the first time at age 30... any chance???

No chance

You do realize you need to run around 4:50 pace and you've done literally no work at sub 5:00 pace. Good luck with that.

KeepingItReal wrote:

You do realize you need to run around 4:50 pace and you've done literally no work at sub 5:00 pace. Good luck with that.

I recently ran sub 16 without doing anything faster than 5:30 pace.

To the OP, I think your mileage will make this happen easily.

KeepingItReal wrote:

You do realize you need to run around 4:50 pace and you've done literally no work at sub 5:00 pace. Good luck with that.

Yes, I definitely realize that. Math is my strong suit.

I felt pretty encouraged by how I felt at the end of the 8k and, as stated, I am training for a 25k (5:20-5:25 goal pace) so I have not been focusing on this time trial. I just figured I would take a shot.

The workouts listed are admittedly as close to “speed” as I’ve come but they were done comfortably. I give myself 25% chance. If you’re at 0, that makes the average 12.5% so far. Told you Math was my strong suit.

You are in shape, but winds of 8-10 are not "okay" conditions. Solly Cholly!

KeepingItReal wrote:

You do realize you need to run around 4:50 pace and you've done literally no work at sub 5:00 pace. Good luck with that.

His 1ks convert to about 4:56 mile pace (the 3:10 set), but this seems to be the fastest thing he's done.

It sounds like you have the strength, but i'm not sure you have the speed (at least from what your workouts indicate).

I'll put you at a 15:10 since you'll be running with other fast guys and will likely get pulled along to a quick time.

Keep us updated!

KeepingItReal wrote:

You do realize you need to run around 4:50 pace and you've done literally no work at sub 5:00 pace. Good luck with that.

He's done the 200s around 4:40 pace after the 2 mile repeats, so the wheels are there. OP, are you trying to break 15 on the track or on the roads. If track, I'd say you're close, 15:15 for sure, sub 15:10 is probable and sub 15 is a possibility. If on roads, I'd say probably not, unless the race is pancake flat and you have other guys you can draft off of.

Congrats on catching the running bug again! 25:42 is solid. However, even if you went sub 25 for 8k, sub 15 would still be unlikely, especially just for a time trial.

I would start out at 74's and go from there. Sub 15:20 would still be an excellent effort.

If he starts at 15:00 pace and hangs on for a mile, I'll go with high 15:20s. If he tries to run even pace, he might make a run at sub 15:20.

The neg-split 8k is very encouraging but running 4:50 pace can be a wake up call for a lot of people comfortable at 5:20 pace. It's possible you just have a massive aerobic system that can carry you there. I'd say 25% chance because we just don't know enough about your strengths.

Good luck!

Do you even do strides, bro?

Since you say your average mileage has been 98, how many total 100 mile weeks have you put in?

Purely out of curiosity.

8/14 above 100, all 14 weeks between 93-103.

To answer another question - I don’t do strides per se, but I do 6 x 30-45 second pickups (sub 5 pace) towards the end of my pre workout runs (2x per week).

You are at worst in 15:30 shape. As for you breaking 15 min, nope. I predict a 15:10-15:15 at best. Please tell us your time tonight.

RejectRunner wrote:

Don't listen to these fa-gots man! Go run it, nothing to lose braaa

Are you that same delusional kid who announced a couple yrs ago that you were winning FootLocker? Update us with your PRs.

If this was a race with guys who are sub-15, then you could just draft off them. But this sounds like it's just you and the stopwatch- which makes it a more difficult attempt. You would have to hit 3200m in 9:40 or better, if not forget it.

Good luck.

Ouch! Definitely wasn’t ready for that kind of speed. 4:48 and then a hard fade! 15:25. I might try to focus on some speed this summer after my 25k and try again. Thanks for the replies.

Was that a solo time trial? If so get into a race and sub-15 is no out of the question. 8 seconds per mile may be possible with competition.

Gn wrote:

Was that a solo time trial? If so get into a race and sub-15 is no out of the question. 8 seconds per mile may be possible with competition.

"I have two pacers and one of them will probably take me the whole way if I can hold on. There are also 3 other guys going after 15:00 (in addition to the pacers) so we should have a decent "group"."

From his original post.