I'd be VERY tempted to pick Kerr. I think actually I would pick Kerr.
As for the women's race, we picked Purrier in our preview but I think it's possible I could be talked off that pick if some of you make arguments for other runners so let me know what you think.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/03/2018-ncaa-indoor-mens-800-preview-josh-kerr-elinor-purrier/
Cheserek just ran the second-fastest indoor mile ever. I will not be picking Kerr.
I will not be picking Kerr either. Rojo, what have you been smoking?
That anti-Oregon pipe.
Kerr would get destroyed.
westsouthrunner wrote:
Kerr would get destroyed.
I know one thing. Kerr wouldn't get destroyed. I'd be my life that even if Kerr lost he wouldn't lose by nearly as much as Cheserek lost last year.
You do realize that Kerr DESTROYED King Ches last year right? And it was their first race of the day. Yes Ches had to run a 5k the night before but that was only a 13:41 race.
Do people not realize that there is a HUGE difference between running a rabbited mile and winning a championship 1500. Kerr has the superior speed so his strategy is simple, sit on Cheserek. Cheserek has to be so much better that he can run away from the front as Kerr benefits from drafting off Cheserek. Did you not watch sub-2? Drafting helps A LOT.
Take a look at this photo:
https://cdn.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/josh-kerr-crushes-cheserek-400x211.pngThat tiny dot in yellow - that's Cheserek after getting destroyed.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/03/upset-city-new-mexico-freshman-josh-kerr-stuns-edward-cheserek-runs-away-2017-ncaa-mile-title/I think the issue is that Cheserek has transcended his level of performance from that indoor season.
Kerr’s a gamer, but I suspect Ches is now a cut above.
The brojos just seem to be anti chez
Why bring Ches into this? Did he still have indoor eligibility for UO?
Anti chez wrote:
The brojos just seem to be anti chez
I'm not anti-Ches. I'm anti-establishment thinking. "Think different." I'm not sure Kerr would win but I'd probably pick him in the contest as the value I'd be getting for that pick would be huge and the genius factor if it happens would last a long time.
YMMV wrote:
Why bring Ches into this? Did he still have indoor eligibility for UO?
Because it's an interesting hypothetical - the type you'd see on a sports talk show whether on radio or tv for other spors. And I view our messageboard as our sport's version of talk radio.
Talking about whether Kerr is going to win this weekend is boring - yes he's going to win. Talking about whether he'd beat Kind Ches is much more interesting. My job here is to entertain you and get you think.
rojo wrote:
Anti chez wrote:
The brojos just seem to be anti chez
I'm not anti-Ches. I'm anti-establishment thinking. "Think different." I'm not sure Kerr would win but I'd probably pick him in the contest as the value I'd be getting for that pick would be huge and the genius factor if it happens would last a long time.
YMMV wrote:
Why bring Ches into this? Did he still have indoor eligibility for UO?
Because it's an interesting hypothetical - the type you'd see on a sports talk show whether on radio or tv for other spors. And I view our messageboard as our sport's version of talk radio.
Talking about whether Kerr is going to win this weekend is boring - yes he's going to win. Talking about whether he'd beat Kind Ches is much more interesting. My job here is to entertain you and get you think.
You would need lots of genius points for us to not think you're dumb. We can tell you "think different" in that you think like an idiot, not like a rational person.
rojo wrote:
westsouthrunner wrote:
Kerr would get destroyed.
I know one thing. Kerr wouldn't get destroyed. I'd be my life that even if Kerr lost he wouldn't lose by nearly as much as Cheserek lost last year.
You do realize that Kerr DESTROYED King Ches last year right? And it was their first race of the day. Yes Ches had to run a 5k the night before but that was only a 13:41 race.
Do people not realize that there is a HUGE difference between running a rabbited mile and winning a championship 1500. Kerr has the superior speed so his strategy is simple, sit on Cheserek. Cheserek has to be so much better that he can run away from the front as Kerr benefits from drafting off Cheserek. Did you not watch sub-2? Drafting helps A LOT.
Take a look at this photo:
https://cdn.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/josh-kerr-crushes-cheserek-400x211.pngThat tiny dot in yellow - that's Cheserek after getting destroyed.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/03/upset-city-new-mexico-freshman-josh-kerr-stuns-edward-cheserek-runs-away-2017-ncaa-mile-title/
Cheserek had something akin to a single continuous season spanning multiple years while he was at Oregon. They used him for XC, Indoors, and Outdoors in an almost absurd assortment of events (How many 10000m champions go about anchoring DMRs and contesting the Indoor Mile). He was probably running on fumes by the time of his senior year. He graduated, went pro, got quite a few good months to rest up without any high-intensity races, and the result is another set of monstrous performances.
Kerr beat a half-dead Cheserek who hadn't gotten a real break for nearly 4 years. Against a rested Cheserek who can run a 3:49? It'll be the same result as those few times Cheserek tried to race the pros while in the middle of the collegiate season.
I'm going to defend Rojo here (and not just because he pays me).
Cheserek is amazing, obviously. But he ran 3:52.01 last year to break the collegiate record and two weeks later, Kerr beat him handily at NCAAs (2+ seconds). Cheserek is definitely better this year (3:49.44), but so is Kerr. What's so crazy about Kerr beating him again?
Here's the other thing: when has Edward Cheserek EVER shown that he can win an NCAA title from the front? When he won all of his titles, he did so by coming from behind. But I don't think that would work against Kerr (see: last year's race). He'd need to try to drop him from the front, and I'm not sure Cheserek could do that without rabbits.
If it came down to Kerr vs. Cheserek again, right now, I don't know who I'd pick, but it would be an AWESOME race.
And anyone who thinks the Brojos are anti-Cheserek must have missed all the love we gave him after his amazing double in Boston last month. Dude is a total stud.
Though actually, now that I think of it, Chris O'Hare was able to drop Kerr at Millrose by running 3:54 from the front. I'm confident Cheserek could solo a 3:54 flat if he needed to and that might be enough to win.
I'd still love to see them race though.
Guys...17x NCAA champ/3:49 guy ed Ches is better than josh kerr. Stop it. A single fresh Cheserek last year beats mess outta Kerr. Kerr had a great race, blew him away last year, but Cheserek also shut it down while checking his place the last 150 once he realized he couldn’t win. So pointing out the distance at the finish isn’t an acurate representation of their fitness at that time. Remember, Cheserek still had a fresh justyn knight waiting for him in the 3k. And even in that mile while a 13:41 5k may not have been max effort for a guy of his caliber, It’s still a lot more effort than relaxing in the stands or in your room as Kerr did that night. I like this as a conversation starter. But ches indoors this year was the best miler in the world.
Elle Purrier won't win because she's Elle Purrier. How many times has she been the favorite going into a championship race? She always runs an insane time early in the season and ends up getting 3rd or 4th in the end. Sounds cliche, but she's just straight up not a winner.
Seyta wrote:
Cheserek had something akin to a single continuous season spanning multiple years while he was at Oregon. They used him for XC, Indoors, and Outdoors in an almost absurd assortment of events (How many 10000m champions go about anchoring DMRs and contesting the Indoor Mile). He was probably running on fumes by the time of his senior year. He graduated, went pro, got quite a few good months to rest up without any high-intensity races, and the result is another set of monstrous performances.
Kerr beat a half-dead Cheserek who hadn't gotten a real break for nearly 4 years. Against a rested Cheserek who can run a 3:49? It'll be the same result as those few times Cheserek tried to race the pros while in the middle of the collegiate season.
I agree with this theory. I think he had a similar lapse his senior year of high school after continually chasing fast time as a Sophomore and Junior.
This year Cheserek seems to be on another level. He ran 3:53 on a flat track beating US indoor 1500m champ Chelimo and US indoor 1500m bronze Engels by nearly 5 seconds. Kerr beat Blankenship by .05 on a banked track in 3:54.72. Cheserek blew away Ghebriwet, gaining almost 3 seconds on him in the final 200 of a fast 3000m a day after running the 2nd fastest indoor mile in history. I would have taken Cheserek's odds at wining the 1500m or 3000m at indoor worlds this year if he had entered.
Seyta wrote:
(How many 10000m champions go about anchoring DMRs and contesting the Indoor Mile).
Joe Falcon
For those of you that are visual learners, this should jog your memory.
https://twitter.com/NCAATrackField/status/971435814101151748
OTCSucks wrote:
Elle Purrier won't win because she's Elle Purrier. How many times has she been the favorite going into a championship race? She always runs an insane time early in the season and ends up getting 3rd or 4th in the end. Sounds cliche, but she's just straight up not a winner.
Isn't that what everyone said about Hasay for years?
I really don't put any stock into "Isn't a winner." Winning in running is determined by your fitness and speed as compared to teh competitions fitness and speed. Hasay won a ton in HS, lost a lot in college then started winning again.
People naturally know how to win. Purrier won everything in site in HS.
