If you were handed a 4x200 team composed of 4 random guys off the street, could you train them to beat Rudisha's 800 WR?

wejo wrote:

Randos off the street? You're going to have guys running 40 second 200s.

Randos off the street? More likely you're going to have guys who can't even finish a 200 without walking.

It depends which street you pick them off.

Thanks for the statistics lesson ... wrote:

I know what a pure random sampling looks like. A pure random sample would be every male with social security number of 5. In that case you will get male 6 month old male babies and 90 year old men in nursing homes. Guys on bar stools will get most males usually who can walk.

The original post says non-disabled males in their 20s, so what you're saying doesn't apply.

This site is skewed since most of us are distance runners who don't do sprint training and have less fast-twitch fibers than most people. The 50th percentile of my HS sprint team was around 26 flat, so it can't be that hard.

"The 50th percentile of my HS sprint team was around 26 flat."

So the 50th percentile of fast guys who, because they were fast, went out for track, leads you to believe that random guys off the street can do it? That explains a lot about you.

stateezee wrote:

Do you all not understand what a random sample is?

This question is dumb. You might get 4 guys good enough, you might not. There’s no way to say definitively that you would or would not be able to break 1:40.91 because the sample is random.

Random samples of males includes male babies in diapers and male senior citizens. I will bet $10,000 cash, you are not going to get 4 purely random males in US to race 25.2 for 200m on a 4x200m relay. On a high school track & field team, by the end of the season you may have twelve guys who can run sub-25.2 for 200m. There are usually about 750 males in a high school. They are all self selected. Except for 3200m guys, shot putters and discus throwers, every male who goes out for high school track & field sees them self as a sub-29 200m person. You can't get four random US citizens to race sub-27.2 for 200m, let alone sub-25.2.

I win many of my local road races in around 15:45 so I am probably one of the fastest guys out of a population of 100,000 men and I can only run 27 seconds. 4 random guys hidden at random would have a 70 year old guy in the group running over 1 minute, 1 fat guy running 1 minute, 1 guy at 45 seconds and 1 guy at 35 seconds. That group is probably closer to getting lapped than beating a world champ.

No way Jose wrote:

4 random guys hidden at random would have a 70 year old guy in the group running over 1 minute

You don't understand random sampling ... wrote:

Random samples of males includes male babies in diapers and male senior citizens. I will bet $10,000 cash, you are not going to get 4 purely random males in US to race 25.2 for 200m on a 4x200m relay.

The original post says "non-disabled guys in their 20s". Still want to take that bet?

@an opinion wrote:

"The 50th percentile of my HS sprint team was around 26 flat."

So the 50th percentile of fast guys who, because they were fast, went out for track, leads you to believe that random guys off the street can do it? That explains a lot about you.

They didn't go out for track because they were fast. Here's some of the reasons I heard:

"I/my parents want me to do a sport since you're only in HS once and because it makes you look good on your college apps. Track is a no-cut sport, and running for a few seconds can't be that hard."

"My friends are in track, so I figured I'd join for the hell of it."

"Coach wants me to sprint so that I'll be in better shape for football."

Ok I will reconsider only including guys in their 20s. I will then say 1 is close to 1 minute, 1 runs 50, 1 runs 40, and 1 runs 30. They can still get lapped if the slow guys go first.

It was a random sample of guys in their 20s, from the original post.

letsrun can't read wrote:

No way Jose wrote:

4 random guys hidden at random would have a 70 year old guy in the group running over 1 minute

You don't understand random sampling ... wrote:

Random samples of males includes male babies in diapers and male senior citizens. I will bet $10,000 cash, you are not going to get 4 purely random males in US to race 25.2 for 200m on a 4x200m relay.

The original post says "non-disabled guys in their 20s". Still want to take that bet?

Maybe I was going back and forth with OP. Maybe I was not. I don't know. I can read well thank you. Random non-disabled guys in their twenties? My money is still good. Including, all high school athletes, no more than fifty guys in a high school are capable of racing 200m in 25.2. Average high school has 750 males. Random males in there twenties. If obesity is except from being considered a disability, contact BroJos, let's make the bet! If at most 50 of 750 high school males are capable of racing 25.2, half that number by males in their twenties. That's only 25 of 750 IMO are males able to race 25.2 in their twenties. Get your checkbook. This will be easy money!

Maybe I was going back and forth with OP. Maybe I was not. I don't know. I can read well thank you. Random non-disabled guys in their twenties? My money is still good. Including, all high school athletes, no more than fifty guys in a high school are capable of racing 200m in 25.2. Average high school has 750 males. Random males in there twenties. If obesity is except from being considered a disability, contact BroJos, let's make the bet! If at most 50 of 750 high school males are capable of racing 25.2, half that number by males in their twenties. That's only 25 of 750 IMO of males are able to race 25.2 200m in their twenties. Get your checkbook. This will be easy money![/quote]

correction

Larry B. wrote:If you can't train the slowest guy to break 32, you're screwed, since the rest of the team has to average 22.9. But what are the chances of this happening?

If we're restricting ourselves to Americans, one of the guys is probably going to be obese.

I'd bet that Rudisha beta the rando-relay team 9 times out of 10.

Most 25 guys run around 54 for the 400. Enuff said.

5/10 unoriginal but still gets bites

Edit, having thought about it a bit more. Rudisha's WR beats the rando relay team very nearly every time. Do the 4 guys automatically buy in to the concept? Can you somehow pluck them out of their current lives, and put them in a full-time, well-funded training camp for a year? The unspecified determine whether the rando team wins 1 out of 100 or 1 out of a billion.

Do you and your teammates take the short bus? wrote:

"a no-talent that can only manage a 27"

You are so far removed from reality that there is no hope for you.

The men's masters record for 75 year olds is 27. I have a hard time believing that a non-disabled man in his 20s would be unable to beat a 75 year old after a year of training.

knox harrington wrote:

If we're restricting ourselves to Americans, one of the guys is probably going to be obese.

I'd bet that Rudisha beta the rando-relay team 9 times out of 10.

The obese guys can lose weight. A year is more than enough for that. Besides, obesity has less of an effect on the shorter sprints than on the longer distances. I've seen a few obese guys run a decent 100, but they usually start walking after 400 if you can even get them to attempt a mile.

Anyway, this is a great idea for a reality TV show. Instead of the Biggest Loser, we can call this "Joe Olympian" or something. The TV hosts will walk into the local Walmart, pick some young guys, and coach them for a year. Their progress and training will be on TV, and at the end of each season, we'll have them race an elite 800 guy.

The prize is $400K. If the team wins, each sprinter gets $100K. If the elite wins, he gets $400K.

you high? wrote:

Do you and your teammates take the short bus? wrote:

"a no-talent that can only manage a 27"

You are so far removed from reality that there is no hope for you.

The men's masters record for 75 year olds is 27. I have a hard time believing that a non-disabled man in his 20s would be unable to beat a 75 year old after a year of training.

The fact that you have a hard time believing it doesn't mean it isn't true. The vast majority of non-disabled men in their twenties would not be able to break 15s in the 100m. I don't care what the record for a 75 year old is in the 100m or any other race.

Muscle is more important than cardio for running sprints. Obese people temd to have higher muscle.