Is it realistic for me to run a sub 9 minute 3000m this weekend?

Run even 9min 3k splits. If you feel good at 2k, then hammer. If not, try to hang on and if you come up short you just might not be ready for sub 9.

Just try to go with the flow and take the first km running ~2.58 km-pace. Hopefully your recent races improved your fitness, so that the sub 9min would be more realistic. My 1k and 2k splits were 2.52/5.55 when ran a 8.57 3k. The first km was a bit too fast, I barely managed to keep 3.03-3.02 pace in the last 2k. It was hard.

That 2000m time seems to have absolutely nothing to do with that mile time, so I am going to say that you popped in the mile and have moved to a new fitness level, and that fitness level suggests a sub 9:00 3000m. Of course, the other possibility is that your endurance is horrendous and you managed to hold on for dear life in the mile by using your pure speed. But I don't think so.

As to race strategy, I would suggest that you relax early in the race and stay near the back of the pack, trying to run even splits, but staying relaxed and out of trouble early. All track races get tight, and indoor races are tighter than outdoor races. If your projected time puts you toward the back half of the middle of the pack, you can certainly get away with letting most of the pack take it out ahead of you. Everyone goes out too hard the first 200, especially indoors. Let them go and settle in to a good, clean space and a good rhythm. Guys will start rolling back to you no later than by 400m and in the meantime, you won't have to deal with the stress and energy expenditure of the pushing and shoving and jockeying for position and moving around in the pack and bouncing outside, etc. Just the mental energy expended in that nonsense alone can seriously impact your time. So let them go, run a smooth and steady start, then start picking guys off on the straightaways, going around them with clear and decisive moves (but try to be as steady as possible in your pacing while doing that). By 2000m, you will end up right where you are going to finish, save whatever position changes result from big kicks. Patience is key. My advice on race strategy would be totally different if you were going to be the top guy in a slower heat.

Thanks for the racing advice man. I will definitely take that into consideration and stay relaxed. And yeah I ran the 2000m with a decent amount of energy left and not a lot of competition during the race, so I think I'm capable of running a bit faster. However, I still haven't given my endurance a true test yet this season, so we'll see what happens.

I have to mostly agree with Smoove here. The difference between your mile time and mile pace in the 2k is pretty significant, which indicates maybe you were tired going into that 2k, you have moved into a new fitness level, or your endurance isn't there. With the current training of intervals 600m or less, my first thought was that will produce a much faster mile time relative to your 3k/5k mile pace.

I ran a mile/3k double over the weekend on a 200m indoor track, so I think that I have something to add here. My 3k was about 15 seconds per mile slower than my mile, but I found the difference between the races immense, despite the 3k only being 7 more laps or 1400m more overall. To me, running a 3k is more of a sustained, even effort in which you slowly work down the pace in the 2nd half of the race, while the mile is basically racing on the edge past the 600m mark.

First of all, people are going to blaze that first 400m, just hold back and let them go in front of you without worrying too much about position. I was in the slow heat with everyone running 9:30 and slower, and they had to go out under 70. After avoiding a fast start, my focus was to settle into my goal pace of XX seconds per lap, and then pass people on the straightaways. I wasn't even thinking about picking up the pace until the 1600m mark. I broke down the race into 5 lap parts, with the first 5 just maintaining the pace, the second 5 focused on maintaining, passing, and monitoring how I'm feeling, and last 5 making myself uncomfortable and trying to slowly work down the pace. I probably started my kick at 500m, knowing that most people would wait until the last lap and I could slowly increase the pace and pass most everyone before the last lap. Over the course of the race, I probably went from near last to 5m from 1st and then finished 3rd.

Whatever happens, when you return to training, I think you need more 800s/1000s at race pace. Keep your 400s & 600s the other day of the week, but one workout should total 4-5000m with 2x1000m at 2:55-3:00.

example:

2x800 in 2:30/ 1 min. between; 4 min rest; 2x1000 in 2:58/ 4 min. rest between (or more to bring HR down to 120); 5 min; 400/300/200 in 68,50, fast /1 min. between

Your 4:26 mile equates to 4:07 for 1500m. That should predict 8:56/sub-9 for sure. If not, I believe you need more 1k repeats at pace. Good luck. Let us know how it goes.