I've been running 40 miles per week and just ran 10:37 for 3200 in our first indoor race, a pretty big pr.
My fastest 1600 is 5:01 but I'll probably run in the mid-low 4:50s in 2 weeks when I race it.
During cross country I ran 17:01 on a moderately hard course.
I definitely improve as distance increases; my 800m pr is a 2:17 split from a couple hours before the 3200.
Are 4:39 and 9:59 realistic goals for this season?
Your mileage looks good, and your XC credentials speak well for your stength. Based on that alone, I’d think you would be able to run near 4:40 flat this season. However, your 800 PR is horrible for someone with those goals. I’d guess you’re probably good for about a 4:52 and maybe a 2:13 right about now. I’m sure you aren’t running the 8 properly at all and believe that will be the key to you achieving your goals. As of now, you’ll probably be able to squeeze under 4:50 by maybe 2 or 3 seconds and in the same way your 3200 should improve by 20 seconds because of that. But unless you are able to improve your current 800 by at least 5 seconds soon... the answer is no, it is very unlikely that you’ll be able to break 10. A sub 10:10, however, is possible and much more attainable.
I agree that the 800 needs to be way faster if I want to run a quick mile, I can probably get down to 2:10 by the end of indoor when we start doing some more speedy stuff. As for how I race the 8 I don't know my splits from when I ran 2:17 but I had a lot left at the end and I probably went 69 68 or 70 67. Should I try to get out in 65 or 66 the next time I race or even a bit quicker? What's a good strategy for a distance guy moving down to the 8?
Okay, that’s good too hear. A 2:10 would be just enough to squeeze by your goals. Your splits sound typical for a distance runner, and since you aren’t specifically training for the 8 I’d suggest keeping them that way. Depending on what your 400 speed is looking like, try to get out on or just outside pace. If you can run 62 or better in the 400 I’d suggest trying to get out around 66. Try to keep the effort even ( don’t go out too fast the first 200) and you’ll probably PR by a fair bit, maybe in the low 2:10s . After doing this a few times, you can try taking it about a bit more aggressively and you should end up coming back just as strong as before. If you’re able to do that, you’ll definitely be sub 2:10 and that should enable you to run under 4:40 as well.