Will I break 20 minutes in a 5k tomorrow?

Good luck brother, after a couple miles at 6:25 pace just push harder. How bad you want it ?

Check back.

Yes, you'll break 20:00, because most road 5Ks are inaccurately measured. It's probably 2.95-3.03 miles.

But let's assume this is a certified course. If you can run 20:48 in a workout, you definitely have a shot at breaking 20:00 in a goal race. There's a couple of question marks, though. First, you've dropped mileage rather than maintaining it at 40 mpw. Even for a 5K, I'd have more confidence at 40 mpw than 30 mpw, but some runners do just fine off lower mileage. The other concern is that your pre-race peak workout consists of repeat 400s; for a 5K, I think longer intervals are more race-specific, although, again, some runners thrive on 400s.

In races, I set my watch to 1-mile autolap and showing average lap pace, and keep my eye on the pace at the start. If you can start off the first 400, 800, and mile on 6:20-25 pace, you'll have a good chance of breaking 20:00. If you start off at 5:53 pace, you probably won't. The first 1-5 minutes will decide how close you get to your goal.

Most courses in the UK are certified.

Even if you'd run 15min, still wouldn't matter. Chill and enjoy whatever you can run and be happy with it.

if hes uk based assumable its a parkrun

We are close in age. Your workouts and mile time are slightly slower than mine. I can just get under 20 in 5k's. That said, I don't run flat, easy or short courses. Depending on the course, you may or may not be able to do it, but it's going to be hard.

I second the idea of doing longer intervals than just 400s. No matter what your goal pace you should have definitely been doing a variety of distances at it so it doesn't feel like a shock to your system 1600 into it. I typically do my 5k reps from 1k, 1200s, and mile repeats at goal pace. Doing them in 400 or 800 is a good place to warm up or start in early season, but i wouldn't solely suggest doing only 400s at goal pace and nothing else.

I think you're close but there's really only one way to know for sure.

Thanks for the responses, everybody. A couple respones:

1. Reduced mileage - guilty as charged. Most of the reduction has been in my weekly long run, which has dropped for the past 6 weeks from ~20 miles to roughly 10.

2. Short course - I hear you and it drives me crazy. I'm actually on the board for a running group that puts on a charity race each year and I've complained that our own course is short. They look at me like I'm crazy for caring. I've had a couple races where I've hit the finish line, grabbed my medal and kept going until I recorded the proper distance.

3. Short repeats. That was my last one. The plan has had various intervals, from 400m to 1 mile. I was using a McMillan training plan available through Strava. Maybe that was the plan's version of a taper. The week before, it had me running 3x1 mile repeats (6:30 - 6:40 pace) with 3 minute recoveries.

4. Not going out to fast. The bane of all runners, and I'm no exception. Will do the best I can to keep to my goal pace, especially early on.

Misc - This is US, not UK. Florida, so it will be flat. Temps should be fine, probably low 60's at race time. Front coming through but I think the rain's already cleared.

Pretty psyched to even be in a position to attempt this. 20 minutes may not be a major milestone for some of you, but it wasn't that long ago that 25 seemed impossible.

Two ways you can run it to get your goal time. Either go out hard and try your best to hang on for dear life and positive split the hell out of it . Or negative split, go out at 6:30, 6:25, 6:25, start kicking with ~500-300m to go no matter how daunting and reckless it seems. There's no point in trying to sprint beyond the finish line since it's not gonna count anyways so you might as well make it all count.

Might do it if you run the last half mile on "Pure Hate".

M.A.G.A.

Good luck! How long have you been at it?

Run well and let us know how it goes?

Willy Makit wrote:

Thanks for the responses, everybody.

Pretty psyched to even be in a position to attempt this. 20 minutes may not be a major milestone for some of you, but it wasn't that long ago that 25 seemed impossible.

To me, 20 mins is a major milestone, because I still have not conquered it. I ran my 5k PR last year, which was 20:42.

I'm 45, and breaking 20 mins introduces a different level of speed. It's that different. I can cruise to a 21 min 5k with no problem, but sub 20 mins requires a fast, constant pace.

I've been running since I was 19, but I started running competitively about 4 years ago, and I have gotten faster every year. However, my main issue is simply not running enough mileage. Some weeks I will do 40. Other weeks I will do 30. That is no good. It keeps me in solid form, but it does not really push the threshold where I can maintain intense speed throughout my run. My goal this year is to sustain 40-50 miles per week, and be consistent with my long runs. My overall goal is to run sub 19 by 2019-2020

I run my first 5k of the year next week, so the goal is 19 mins.

Anyway, good luck on your attempt, and you are going to have to up your mileage to at least 40 miles a week. Also, you need to add some 800-1000m intervals, that will really help with running fast comfortably. It did wonders for my speed endurance.

Results?

So I made it. Finished in 19:52. 10th overall (winner was 16:39), 9th among men, 1st in age group.

Had to negative split to get it done. Ran into a 12 mph headwind for first 1.25 miles or so. Tried to find somebody to draft behind, but nobody was at the pace I wanted to run. Working harder than I wanted to, I finished first mile at 6:30. 2nd mile was part headwind, then a cross wind for a while and finally a tailwind as I turned to head back. I turned 2nd mile at my goal pace of 6:25 so I was still 5 seconds behind in total. With the tailwind I was able to crank out a 6:15 mile 3 and my pace for the last tenth was just under 6.

Tactically, I ran the race I wanted to. I didn't panic when I was falling off pace during mile 1. I kept the goal within reach of a good 3rd mile. My biggest mistake was before the race. Parking was really tight, and since the 10k had started earlier, there was no parking available nearby. I ended up over a mile away and walked to the race site. This put me behind schedule and since I was doing race day pickup, I still had to grab my bib and swag bag and get things over to the bag claim area. Then I ran into a friend who had finished the 10k, so that delayed me from warming up. During a 1 mile warmup, I ran into and briefly chatted with another buddy coming to pick up his bib for tomorrow's half. The net result was that by the time I got back to the start line, it was jammed up and I could only move up so far without being a jerk. This meant I spent part of the first minute working my way through slower traffic. Nobody's fault but mine.

Enjoyed a couple well earned beers in the post race food tent, happy as a clam with my results.

Thanks to all who posted.

Run results here if interested:

https://www.strava.com/activities/1354909355/overview

Kevin

Congratulations!

Well done!

Nice run!

Well done! Clearly Alan didn't get his talent from you!

jk