Idiot Marathoner wrote:
I'm going out at 8:00/mile pace and seeing how far that will take me. Most days I run the 3 to 5 at ~7:20 pace, so I'm hoping 3:30 feels decently easy for the first half at least.
I think your most serious risk of dnf is cramping or blisters, since you havent done anything near that distance.
But if you manage to avoid those problems, I think you could probably get near to 3:30. Bring some gu or something with calories, take advantage of water stations often and you may just finish without having to walk significant stretches. Without any long runs, dont attempt this with no fuel of some sort.
Keep in mind, the very early modern marathoners barely did any running too, and they sometimes ran well under 3 hours. They did do very long training walks, though.