Official 2017 NXN Live Discussion Thread (Boys race 1:05 east, Girls 2:35pm)

Don’t count out Great Oak on the girls side. Incredibly strong team this year when compared to the preseason expectations. I think there is only 1 returner from last years team but they managed to still beat a strong Buchanan team...

Yeesh, your MN bias is definitely showing.

On the Boys side:

Individual:

1. Hasty

2. Kilrea

3. Troutner (a bit of a darkhorse pick)

Hasty is clearly the best in the nation. After him, there is a bit of a log jam of very good runners each capable of a podium-level performance (Kilrea, Mwaura, Maier, Troutner, Raff, etc).

Team:

1. Great Oak

2. Loudon Valley

3. Springville

Great Oak, I think, is clearly the best team on paper and they have a coach who knows how to prepare his teams to run their best races on the biggest stage. I think Loudon Valley is comparable to GO (even better in some ways) but the lack of experience, I think, will keep them from the win. After those two, there are a bunch of teams that have a great argument for podium spot-- Springville, I think, has one of the best 1-4 in the nation. Wayzata has experience and a lot of depth, which could put them in that 3rd spot. Mountain Vista, if they run like they did at NXRSW, could easily take that 3rd spot as well.

On the Girls side:

Individual:

1. Tuohy

2. TBD

3. TBD

Tuohy is far and away the best. Barring illness, she'll win and it won't be particularly close. Outside of her, there are a lot of girls like Noe, Wolgramm, and others that could round out the top ten.

Team:

1. Fayetteville Manlius

2. Great Oak

3. Wayzata

Having seen the FM girls in person at NXN, it's obvious why they win that thing every single year-- as a group, they have a singular focus to destroy the nation in that meet and this year's team looks just as ready to do that as any other previous years. After FM, Great Oak has a solid pack, lots of depth, and, again, experience. After those two, you've got the 'best of the rest'-- Wayzata, some CO teams, and maybe another CA team.

Niles wrote:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2017/NXN_Predict_2017.htm

I think Meylen usually does a pretty good job, and my own predictions would not look much different.

The guy's team race should be a lot of fun, and I think Loudon Valley takes their first 'L' to GO or maybe Mountain Vista who has been having a nice steady rise. I think MV is the favorite if they have been focusing on an NXN peak, similar to Bozeman last year.

It would be a big upset if the other three titles did not go to:

Girls team title - FM.

Boys Ind - Hastey

Girls Ind - Tuohy

I agree that the individual races are pretty clear, but I think the girls team race could be a lot closer than some people think. GO, Wayzata, Naperville are all very strong

Here we go

On the girls side...

Individuals

1. Kayelyn Tuohy

2. London Culbreath

3. Sydney Thordvaldson

4. Katelynns Hart

5. Camila Noe

Teams

1. FM

2. Wayzata

3. Buchanan

4. Naperville North

5. Great Oak

On the Boys side

Individuals

1. Brodey Hasty

2. James Mwaura

3. Alex Maier

4. Aidan Troutner

5. Dustin Horter

Teams

1. London Valley

2. Great Oak

3. Springville

4. FM

5. Downers Grove North

Why would Buchanan beat GO when in the merge they were further away than the actual race? More depth helps GO and NXN will be deeper than CA.

Niles wrote:

[quote]Niles wrote:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2017/NXN_Predict_2017.htm

LOL there's a school called Flower Mound. Do you think their mascot is the Fuzzy Peach?

That was one of my two bold predictions

Boys Team

1. St. Francis (Mountain View) (CA)

2. Great Oak (CA)

3. Roosevelt (CA)

Kilrea

Hortor

Hasty

Mwaura

I'd not count out Jacobs if he is finally back to 100%

1) Brodey Hasty

2) Dustin Horter

3) Danny Kilrea

4) Alex Maier

5) James Mwaura

6) Aidan Troutner

7) Dylan Jacobs

8) Carter Cheeseman

9) Sam Affolder

10) Grant Gardener

11) Justin Hazell

12) Drew Bosley

13) Peter Morris

14) Liam Anderson

16) Sam Bowers

17) Kevin Ramos

18) Silas Derfel

18) Clayton Mendez

19) Conant Smith

20) Charles Hicks

21) Derick Peters

Also from MN–

I agree with your Wayzata coming out on top on the girls' side–if anyone can pull off the upset against F-M (again), it's them. They've proven they know how to peak for NXN and I think their top two runners could both be in the top 10/15 for team scoring. Heartland has shown they are consistently underrated–just look at Willmar girls' fifth place finish last year–and can perform well at NXN. Wolfgram and Covert are having amazing years and I think if anyone's going to take it out with Katelyn Tuohy, wisely or not, and try to hold on, it'll be one of them. I also think Anna Fenske and Lauren Ping have got great potential and are being overlooked in favor of some of the other bigger names. Edina, too, is primed to do better than a lot of people realize. Lots of injuries and some massive improvements this season–also, they took 2nd to NN at the beginning of this year by only 13 points, without their current #4 and #5 runners, and now have three girls running where their #2 was in that race. Their lowstick would have qualified for NXN individually, out of Heartland, which is probably the toughest girls region in the nation for individual girls this year, and their #2 runner didn't even run in the regional race.

If anyone upsets Brodey Hasty it's going to be Dustin Horter. The fact that anyone is putting Kilrea ahead of Horter is silly and baseless.

Mwaura is a bit of a wild card as he hasn't raced against any legitimate talent this season.

Alex Maier is not in the picture. His fitness just isn't there and he'll struggle to get top 10.

1) Brodey Hasty

2) Dustin Horter

3) James Mwaura

4) Danny Kilrea

5) Aidan Troutner

Yeah, for some reason Wayzata's 1-2 seem to be getting overlooked nationally, I think on a perfect day they could both be All-Americans. And for Edina, with Rickman and Richter both coming back from injury, Edina could be a sneaky dark horse for a podium spot. With 3 weeks since regionals, it's anyone's guess how much better shape those two have gotten in, adding on to Kompelien who has All-American potential. That's a scary squad. I can definitely see Wolfgram/Covert going out with Tuohy, and if neither of them blow up I can see them Ping and Fenske all being in the top 10-15. Hopefully people stop sleeping on the Heartland!!

1. Mwaura

2. Hasty

3. Troutner

4. Sprout

5. Kilrea

Glad to see you mentioned London Culbreath. She's a rising star who doesn't get pushed very often here in Texas, so this should be interesting. She is definitely in my top five.

Hasty beat me by over 2 minutes this year at NXRSE. I've been watching him and Loudoun Valley all year and it's tough to see either of them being beaten. Mwaura is strong but I'm certain Hasty will finish ahead. And as much as I would like for Great Oak to win, I think Loudoun Valley will take the win.

MorgantownRunner2020 wrote:

Hasty beat me by over 2 minutes this year at NXRSE. I've been watching him and Loudoun Valley all year and it's tough to see either of them being beaten. Mwaura is strong but I'm certain Hasty will finish ahead. And as much as I would like for Great Oak to win, I think Loudoun Valley will take the win.

Well there you have it, Hasty beat runner X by 2 min so he must win Nationals! And runner X also watched a Loudon Valley team race a few teams and never lose, so they must win too, right????!!!

Nah. That's not how it works, a few logical fallacies there. I don't 100% disagree either, I just thought your wording was a bit funny. Hasty is the presumptive favorite with in my opinion about a 70% chance of winning, then Horter and Mwaura with about 10% each, and then anyone else about 10%. Yes, those are relatively random numbers, but I do think Hasty has proven he is at a slightly higher level than the others thus far, but the other two could see a boost with the added competition.