Is this realistic progression?

No. You must look holistically at the goals and the corresponding results. Only then, my son, will you become a man.

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bump again

Not an expert here but, there really aren't enough data points to know if this is a reasonable progression. With a good coach and no injuries I'd say it is reasonable but you still have to have those two things and many don't. With a 4:36 mile I'd expect a sub 10 2 mile if you're an XC guy, sub 10:10 if you're more of a track guy. Again, come back next year and we can have a much better idea of progression.

Yes, 4:20 could get you to walk on to a decent DI team but no scholarships or really good teams.

Glorfindel wrote:

Not an expert here but, there really aren't enough data points to know if this is a reasonable progression. With a good coach and no injuries I'd say it is reasonable but you still have to have those two things and many don't. With a 4:36 mile I'd expect a sub 10 2 mile if you're an XC guy, sub 10:10 if you're more of a track guy. Again, come back next year and we can have a much better idea of progression.

Yes, 4:20 could get you to walk on to a decent DI team but no scholarships or really good teams.

I have a very good coach and no injury history doing anything (I played soccer, lacrosse, etc. and the worst that happened is I broke a finger. I'm very durable.) I'm also very much a distance guy, I excel the most running XC or road 10Ks. As far as the mile goes, I've done about 1200 meters on 4:40 pace and wasn't exhausted or super tired (I just stride out the first 3 laps)and I assume I could hammer it home at the end.

What else should I post to help you guys?

Just another guy wrote:

No. You must look holistically at the goals and the corresponding results. Only then, my son, will you become a man.

blah blah blah real man blah blah 2-4 kids blah military blah blah

If I read your post correctly, there are no actual times that you have run in it. You think you could have broken 17:00 an a track, so that means you ran 17:1X or so in cross country, but you don't provide any other data.

So the answer is no, it's not a realistic progression, simply because it's not based on any data. You might be a lot slower by the time you're a senior. Or a lot faster. Why limit yourself?

17:1X is a very good time for a freshman boy, and you can expect to run some great times in your freshman track season. But right now you should be more concerned with planning the right kind of training you can do to prepare for the start of your next track season, not the kind of times you might run at the end of track season 3.5 years from now.