Speculate here because it won't happen for a while. I say Tuohy in a close one.
Speculate here because it won't happen for a while. I say Tuohy in a close one.
Lane
I actually gotta give it to Tuohy. One minute ahead of 2nd place? At regionals? I mean how does that time rate compared to other girls on that course?
Tuohy, easily. Sub 17 at Bowdoin is no joke for a boy, let alone a girl.
Tuohy hangs on to Lane and blasts by her like Efraimson did to Baxter at NXN.
Freiheit wrote:
Tuohy hangs on to Lane and blasts by her like Efraimson did to Baxter at NXN.
Exactly, only the both of them are easily 10 - 30 seconds faster than Efraimson/Baxter at XC. It will be a repeat in the same way, but just at a much faster pace.
Olivia Theis
Olivia Theis- best in the country no doubt
I do not think people understand how challenging Bowdoin is compared to tons of other layouts. And Touhy ran 1652 there recently.
Bowdoin is a solid 10/12 seconds slower than Vanny or NJs Holmdel for perspective.
Her 1321 at Vanny 2.5 course is insane.
So are Bowdoin runs of hers.
If Lane beats her, God bless her, altho shipping 3000 miles plus is always a factor especially for HSers.
I suspect we will see them go head-to-head in some indoor or outdoor national invite in the 3K or 2-mile. For example, maybe the 3K HS girls championship at the Penn Relays, or one of the year-end "dream" events in May or June.
I really don't know anything about them, but maybe one has an advantage over a slightly shorter 3K distance?
London culbreath is going to win NXN. She is undefeaed and broke Jordan Hasay's freshman national class record 2mile record in 10:04 which is about a 10:01 3200m.
My money would be on Tuohy.
Tuohy for sure. Top 3 times now at Bowdoin, well ahead of Cuffe and Cain.
Lane's time would have placed her 240th of 995 boys = top 25% at CIF.
Tuohy's time would have placed her 35th of 213 boys = top 17% at NXN NY.
Claudia Lane broke the CA state meet record by 10 seconds yesterday. It was considered to be one of the warmer days (high 70's when she ran). There's been at least of few solid people to have run that course of the years. Tuohy is obviously excellent, but not so sure it's a gimme.
Lane over tough cross country / Tuohy on the track
Both are great runners.
But do you guys really think Lane is trying her hardest? She's been holding back for most of the meets, except for Mt. SAC, Division prelims, and States. Tuohy has been racing for real this entire season. Lane, I'm sure, has a lot left in the tank to give.
Exactly? wrote:
Claudia Lane broke the CA state meet record by 10 seconds yesterday. It was considered to be one of the warmer days (high 70's when she ran). There's been at least of few solid people to have run that course of the years. Tuohy is obviously excellent, but not so sure it's a gimme.
Idk. To me seems like Tuohy is the superior runner. Both are running insane times but head to head I'd have to give it to Tuohy.
Claudia is one heck of a tough runner. Even if Tuohy has amazing Track speed, Claudia does have a kick too. At Footlocker last year almost everyone was expecting 4:43 miler Nevada Mareno to out kick her towards the end of the race, but Claudia still had another gear. The same scenario played out when she went head to head with sub 16 5000m runner Brie Oakley at Arcadia with the 3200m race of the season.
I think these two are evenly matched and that until they go head to head on an xc course or race a 5000m, neither is a definitive #1. I'm biased towards Claudia since she is a defending champ already and Tuohy has yet to get a National title. But I think both of them have already proven that they are the best of their caliber.
Another neat thing I noticed is that Tuohy is a Jordan Hasay fan and Claudia is an Alexi Pappas fan. It's great that these top HS girls have relatable runners they look up to.
trying hard? wrote:
But do you guys really think Lane is trying her hardest? She's been holding back for most of the meets, except for Mt. SAC, Division prelims, and States. Tuohy has been racing for real this entire season. Lane, I'm sure, has a lot left in the tank to give.
Neither has really been pushed, nor will they be the way things are playing out.
Applying an 11% conversion factor to compare with boys' times, this is how their performances stack up:
Tuohy/ VCP 13:21 ~ 12:02 (M record 11:56 Cheserek)
Tuohy/Bowdoin 16:52 ~ 15:12 (M record 15:27 Nick Ryan)
Lane/Woodward 16:30 ~ 14:52 (M record 14:24 Fernandez)
The boys' record at Bowdoin is probably soft. Ryan won that 2012 race by 25 seconds. He ran 12:06 at VCP.
Nevertheless, it's impressive that Tuohy's Bowdoin record is clearly superior on the conversion. And her VCP is not all that far from Cheserek.
Lane's Woodward conversion is very good, better than any boys' time this year I believe, but not close to the Fernandez record.