I'm looking for advice on mileage, workouts, and periodization to hit a sub 17:00 5k at some point in the next year. My closest PRs would be an 8:55 1.5 mile on the road, and an 18:12 3 mile on the road. Both courses were flat and both were for military fitness tests so I'm sure there's the possibility the distances could've been slightly off in either direction.
At the time of both of those PRs I was averaging about 12-15 miles per week, which is the highest mileage I've ever done at any point. There was absolutely no speed work, tempo runs, intervals, etc. I knew nothing about how to train for running so I would just knock out 3 to 4 runs a week of 3-4 miles at maybe 8:30/mile pace. I was 20 then, I'm 25 now. 5ft10 and maybe low 160's at the time; currently 10 pounds heavier at the same or lower bodyfat percentage and significantly stronger.
Most recent performance to judge was a 20:02 3 mile fitness test on flat road after at least a year of absolutely no running whatsoever during which I gained 20lbs of mostly fat in a desperate and stupid attempt to overcome my slow-twitch genetics. Which failed. During years which I did not run consistently, but also didn't balloon in weight, I could average a 19:30 3 mile.
Since then (3 months ago for the 20:02) I've dropped from 185-190 to 170 and have worked up to averaging 15 miles a week again, this time with a few casual fartleks and hill days thrown in but still mostly just slow runs in the 9:00 mile range topping out at 6 miles or so. No clue what I could do a 3 mile in, but I'd guess low 19:00 range.
I'm willing to take the hit in other aspects of my training like lifting to build up to 50 mpw in order to break 17. I'd prefer not to get any lighter and I feel like the high 16 range is attainable while maintaining decent levels of strength on that kind of mileage.
That said, I may be completely wrong.
For those who have broke 17:00, and particularly those who did it while lifting or playing other sports, how did you do it and are my expectations realistic given past performances?
Thanks.