So the state qualifying meet is in this coming weekend and one of the kids I'm coaching will be on the bubble for qualifying. The forecast is calling for rain basically this entire week, and the course historically gets muddy easily. In addition, his race is the last of four races. It's a safe bet that the course will be muddy.
(for reference, the course has been muddy enough on the worse years to slow times down about 2 minutes.)
This runner is usually pretty conservative off the start and is generally able to do a lot of damage the last 800m of the race (I don't think he's even been kicked down in the last 100m). The course has one decent hill of about 60-80m at a pretty steep incline, and is otherwise flat or gradual inclines / declines.
In almost any scenario, I'd tell him to stick to what has been working for him all year. I am worried he will be too far back at the end of the race when it matters, but he has proven me wrong about this quite a few times.
But in a race that is heavily muddy, would it be advisable to get out harder since it will likely be harder to really get moving in sprint when the time comes at the end?
I don't want him to blow up, so maybe I can coax him into starting his 'kick' earlier and pushing the 2nd mile more.
Ideally though I don't want to change what he and I both know has worked thus far.
Any thoughts? Experiences in these types of muddy races? What would you suggest?