It's not that he doesn't have "guts". It's that he isn't stupid. If he goes out in 1:01:40 he will blow up. You know, like the entire London field from this year.
It's not that he doesn't have "guts". It's that he isn't stupid. If he goes out in 1:01:40 he will blow up. You know, like the entire London field from this year.
He wants to be by his own admission a 2.04-2.05 guy... but he needs to start running 2.06-2.07 first and than wont happen anywhere on home soil...
So we shall see if he wants to leave the comfort of a weak field next year and join the big boys... trouble is in London he wont get nowhere near what he got in Chicago in terms of appearance fee...
Time will tell....
can you remind me when Galen fell off the leader in Rio? I dont remember the specifics. Something like the mile 22 waterstop he got left?
leaders go by half-way in 60:5x, Rupp hits half-way in 1:02. 10 miles later Rupp is there battling for the win
he wouldn't be foolish enough to burn out, not about "guts"
Jordan Hasay will never break 2:23.
KAV wrote:
but he needs to start running 2.06-2.07 first and than wont happen anywhere on home soil...
Well it could happen in Boston but then everyone would discount it and say times don't matter for that course.
KAV wrote:
He wants to be by his own admission a 2.04-2.05 guy... but he needs to start running 2.06-2.07 first and than wont happen anywhere on home soil...
So we shall see if he wants to leave the comfort of a weak field next year and join the big boys... trouble is in London he wont get nowhere near what he got in Chicago in terms of appearance fee...
Time will tell....
You only have so many quality marathon efforts. You don't run three 2.09-2.10 races and then try just a little bit harder - but not TOO hard - to see if you can drop 2-3 minutes, and if you do, then try a little harder still to see if you can drop another 2-3 minutes.
Either your training indicates 2.04 pace or it doesn't.
Every Monday morning we have a LetsRun.com call and things are usually pretty tame. Talk about the weekend's action, what's coming up, what stories we want to cover, etc.
Today's call got super heated. We were debating what Galen Rupp should do next, and the opinions were pretty strong and varied.
One train of thought, go to Boston and try to win.
Another train of thought, go race the best in London and go after a fast time. There is a real divergence of opinion of what would happen to Rupp in London.
"If he goes to London, he'll just get his ass kicked by Kipchoge."
"There is no F'ing way, he goes out in sub 1:02. I don't think he has the guts for that".
That comment got strong reaction. "It's not about guts. When has Galen ever not gone with the pace in the race?"
"I bet he could hang with Kipchoge for 20+ miles."
The argument that Rupp wouldn't go with the pace is Mo Farah's debut. In 2014, Farah went out in 63:08. Leaders went through in 62:31 and Wilson Kipsang ran a course record of 2:04.29.
They'd likely go out 61 flat or so in London next year. I think there is a chance Kipchoge and/or London decide London isn't the best place for him to run this spring. Most of the LRC team didn't buy my train of thought, noting that London brought in the world's best for Farah's debut in 2014 and were fine with Farah not going out with the leaders. But it's not the best place to break the WR and do they want Farah not going with the pace again? Or do you think Farah too would go with it.
mustache ride wrote:
can you remind me when Galen fell off the leader in Rio? I dont remember the specifics. Something like the mile 22 waterstop he got left?
After 35k. 30-35k was 14:25 for Kipchoge, 14:26 for Rupp. After that, Rupp struggled home. Based on Boston and Chicago, I'd say Rupp and Salazar have been working on improving the last 12k for Rupp.
I'm not the biggest Rupp fan, myself, but Rupp is a baller. If Alberto told him to go out in 62, Rupp would go 62. Give the guy the credit he deserves.
Speaking of lack of guts, post who said that crap.
Rupp going out in sub 1:02 would be like hasay going out in sub 1:08 which she was willing to do
JH had the guts to test her limits (even leading the race for a few hundred yards there). Not sure Galen is wired that way
Galen Rupp is one of the premier distance runners in the world. He's never once been afraid of a hot pace, if someone else sets it.
But he's also not stupid. If he can pick up 100k running 2:09 in Chicago, why fly to London for a time? To make Letsrun happy? Ha!
We all know he's eyeballing golds in 2020 and 2021. A 2:04 in 2017 won't help him there.
this is a delicate estimate, all predicated on how fast a opening 1/2M he can risk which woudn't cause him to blow up
no one doubts that rupp doesn't have something like 59flat/low/mid speed if he chose to run in say lisboa or copenhagen or that arab one in february
so he definitely coud go with a fast openening 1/2
i do believe he is in ~ 2"06-flat shape currently in perfect even-pace run
theoretically, not factoring in "blowing up", various 1/2M openers for a 2"06-guy & estimate of 2nd half & predicted finish time
63'00 -> 2"06'00
62'30 -> 63'31 -> 2"06'01
62'00 -> 64'05 -> 2"06'05
61'30 -> 64'40 -> 2"06'10
61'00 -> 65'18 -> 2"06'18
60'30 -> 65'59 -> 2"06'29
60'00 -> 66'43 -> 2"06'43
remember, this is only physics, not accounting for the fast enough opener which woud cause a blow-up in 2nd half
however, it does indicate something possibly interesting :
i don't think rupp woud have any trouble going out in 62'00 & still hang on for something in low-2"06's
his breaking point in my experience/judgement woud be nearer 61'30 from which i woudn't expect him to still hang onto a 2"06+ clocking, but it is still theoretically possible from physics
calculo wrote:
theoretically, not factoring in "blowing up", various 1/2M openers for a 2"06-guy & estimate of 2nd half & predicted finish time
63'00 -> 2"06'00
62'30 -> 63'31 -> 2"06'01
62'00 -> 64'05 -> 2"06'05
61'30 -> 64'40 -> 2"06'10
61'00 -> 65'18 -> 2"06'18
60'30 -> 65'59 -> 2"06'29
60'00 -> 66'43 -> 2"06'43
remember, this is only physics, not accounting for the fast enough opener which woud cause a blow-up in 2nd half
however, it does indicate something possibly interesting :
i don't think rupp woud have any trouble going out in 62'00 & still hang on for something in low-2"06's
Those numbers seem strange. What do you mean by not factoring in blowing up? And how can it be that the estimated second half is 66:43 when someone capable of 2:06:00 goes out in 60:00? It just seems weird. And false. There are some 2:06 runners who couldn't run 60:00 for a half or had to go all out to achieve this. For those there isn't happening a second half at all (or maybe in 1:30 hours^^). So the numbers don't really help.
Guts is going 2 and half minutes under your marathon PB pace by the halfway stage?
You guys don't have chat some crap. It's hard to believe you have a running website.
I am not a fan or a hater of Rupp, but I admit I was happy in 2012 to see an American get silver in London in the 10,000 meters. It was our first Olympic medal in the event since Billy Mills got gold in 1964. I would have been happier if he had won, which begged the question at the time, can he or any American win a major distance race or have we psychologically ceded the field to the East Africans?
Fast forward to this Sunday morning. Rupp won a major event. He may not be the most talented guy in the world, but he won. So here is my question-did he win against a world class field? If so, does that mean he should be able to be in the mix and contend for victory in the next year or two for any world class marathon event? If so, does this mean that Americans can throw the whole 'we can't beat East Africans' mentality out the window? I kind of get tired of hearing-we can't beat them, they grow up at elevation, they have the perfect genetics, etc. argument. They also have a lot of things not going for them. About half of rural Kenyans don't have access to improved sanitation facilities or safe drinking water. Also, about a half of rural Kenyan kids are malnourished to the point of stunting (physical and mental). As a result, many have parasites/worms, chronic diarrhea, etc. which is not ideal if you want to be a long distance runner. Point is, while they are thin and grow up at elevation, they have lots of things against them that the typical American kid doesn't. So in my mind, and genetic advantage is cancelled out and they win because they want it more and we think we can't win. I hope Rupp's victory shows that we can compete and we can win.
Is Galen better marathon runner than Mo? No
Can Mo hang with the best East African marathoners? No
End of discussion
In the press conference Galen said that he thought the pace would be faster and he was surprised that it was slow. You see what kind of runner he is? A politician like his mate Farah. Not a leader. He doesn’t have any personal cuase or aim or a principal. His plan is to be dragged by others. This is no inspiration for anybody. And with this attitude, you’ll never see him run a strong field with pacers at high pace. He will always be a Farah 2:08-2:09 guy
Ruppster wrote:
In the press conference Galen said that he thought the pace would be faster and he was surprised that it was slow. You see what kind of runner he is? A politician like his mate Farah. Not a leader. He doesn’t have any personal cuase or aim or a principal. His plan is to be dragged by others. This is no inspiration for anybody. And with this attitude, you’ll never see him run a strong field with pacers at high pace. He will always be a Farah 2:08-2:09 guy
You must be the guy who leads every 5k for a mile or two, then fades as the smart runners pass him at the end.
But at least you had balls.