Bekele targets 2:01:30 in Berlin

whats interesting when you compare KB and Kipchoges PRs

kb

1500: 3:32.35

3000: 7:25.79

2miles: 8:13.51

5k: 12:37.35

10k: 26:17.53

10 K road 27:47

15 K road 42:42

Half 1:01:11

25 K 1:12:47

30 K 1:27:25

Marathon 2:03:03

1500: 3:33.20

Mile: 3:50.40

3000: 7:27.66

2Miles: 8:07.68

5k: 12:46.53

10k: 26:49.02

10 K road 28:11

15 K road 43:02

20 K road 57:12

Half 59:25

25 K road 1:13:13

30 K road 1:27:13

Marathon 2:03:05

1500, kb 1 sec better

3000, kb 2 sec better

2 miles, kip 6 sec better

5k, kb 10 sec better

10k, kb 30 sec better

10k road, kb, ~30 sec better

15k road, kb 20 sec better

half, kip, ~ 50 sec better

25k, kb, ~ 1 min better

30k, kip, ~10 sec better

marathon, kb, 2 sec better

from what i can figure if KB had never had all those injuries he would be 30 sec better at 10k, and there are 42k in a thon, so lets be conservative and say 20 sec better, overall he should be 1:20 to 20 min faster PR than kip at the marathon. so then 1:20 better puts his total time at, wait for it......

2:01:40......i think KB knows what he is talking about

2:01:30 is highly unlikely, but if you're Bekele, you've got to believe. Most likely, Bekele will never run faster than last year, but I don't expect him to give objective predictions of his own times.

I wouldn't want to give up Bekele's great years on the track, but 2:03:03 in Berlin at age 34 really makes you wonder what he might have done if he had moved to the marathon in his 20s.

Bekele vs. Kipchoge vs. Kipsang will at least be a great matchup if everyone is healthy, even if there isn't a WR.

The only frustrating thing about Bekele is that it's hard to get good information about him. The two times he has has good build ups, he ran a 2:05 debut and a 2:03:02. The other marathons that he hasn't done "well" in or that he has DNFed have all been off of super abbreviated build ups where he has done maybe 2-3 months of spotty training at best.

Unfortunately, him/his camp seem to keep that under pretty tight wraps going in. So it's pssible Bekele has a good cycle and 2:03:00 or better is absolutely in play, or it's possible that he has spent the last 4 months injured and has only started training much in August.

I must be confused - Mo must have entered the race for you to continually bring him up on this thread and compare him to KB?

I'll stick with Kipchoge FTW, followed by Kipsang, and KB hailing a cab around mile.........................16?

Has Bekele run a marathon yet in the vaporfly 4% shoes? If not, he is going to gain some time just with the shoe upgrade.

Dead on. KB has not really had bad marathons, only bad buildups. The frustrating thing is we won't know till afterward if he's been healthy or not.

If healthy, I think he absolutely can challenge Kipchoge and both of them can run 2:02:15, possibly 2:02:00 if the pacing is dead on. But a real race has surges and the pacesetters drop early (especially if they shoot for 61:00) which complicates things.

pay slight attention wrote:

Dead on. KB has not really had bad marathons, only bad buildups. The frustrating thing is we won't know till afterward if he's been healthy or not.

If healthy, I think he absolutely can challenge Kipchoge and both of them can run 2:02:15, possibly 2:02:00 if the pacing is dead on. But a real race has surges and the pacesetters drop early (especially if they shoot for 61:00) which complicates things.

How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?

Jimmy21 wrote:

pay slight attention wrote:

Dead on. KB has not really had bad marathons, only bad buildups. The frustrating thing is we won't know till afterward if he's been healthy or not.

If healthy, I think he absolutely can challenge Kipchoge and both of them can run 2:02:15, possibly 2:02:00 if the pacing is dead on. But a real race has surges and the pacesetters drop early (especially if they shoot for 61:00) which complicates things.

How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?

A dnf shows a lack of fitness, which means a bad build up

My cousin saw Bekele practicing surges by racing jeeps through the desert.

Expect great things!

Jimmy21 wrote:

How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?

I guess that's a fair point but it's going by others quotes as well, like Canova. And details that seem way too specific to be made up.

anotherfan wrote:

My cousin saw Bekele practicing surges by racing jeeps through the desert.

Expect great things!

Lol

I do think he has been practicing to cover surges better though, which is one reason I think he will win

Gotta bee wrote:

Jimmy21 wrote:

How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?

A dnf shows a lack of fitness, which means a bad build up

In dubai he got trampled at the start and then said he had a bad build up. Maybe his build up should have included some reaction time training. Get this guy some starting blocks!

Not even three weeks ago my friend's cousin was in KSA and saw Bekele stalk a Saluki for 18 miles before ripping a hare out of its jaws with his own.

Needless to say, Expect Great Things.

Last Sunday my aunt saw Bekele at McDonalds. Apparently his coach had told him to run an easy marathon in two hours, so he took a meal break half way to kill some time.

Expect great things!

McBekele wrote:

Last Sunday my aunt saw Bekele at McDonalds. Apparently his coach had told him to run an easy marathon in two hours, so he took a meal break half way to kill some time.

Expect great things!

What you talkin bout Yannis?

Recently, in Addis Abeba, he tried a new route for his long run and got lost. Three hours later, he found himself in Dakar. Expect great things.

popcorn consumer wrote:

2:01:30 is highly unlikely, but if you're Bekele, you've got to believe. Most likely, Bekele will never run faster than last year, but I don't expect him to give objective predictions of his own times.

I wouldn't want to give up Bekele's great years on the track, but 2:03:03 in Berlin at age 34 really makes you wonder what he might have done if he had moved to the marathon in his 20s.

Bekele vs. Kipchoge vs. Kipsang will at least be a great matchup if everyone is healthy, even if there isn't a WR.

Well at 35 he's still young enough to run faster than 2.03. I don't buy that stuff about athletes over 35 losing 1/2% a year or whatever (insert your own imaginary number) I think most people just get lazier or less committed and that's why they get slower very quickly (scuse tha oxymoron)

Isn't it great how he isn't afraid to line up against the best marathon runners?

oxymoran wrote:

Well at 35 he's still young enough to run faster than 2.03. I don't buy that stuff about athletes over 35 losing 1/2% a year or whatever (insert your own imaginary number) I think most people just get lazier or less committed and that's why they get slower very quickly (scuse tha oxymoron)

Isn't it great how he isn't afraid to line up against the best marathon runners?

In 2013 a cyclist named Chris Horner won the Spanish equivalent of the Tour de France at the age of 41. Some people pointed to his age as evidence that he must surely be doped to the max. However, I remember reading some reports in the weeks after his victory proving that ability, especially for an endurance sport like cycling (or maybe running) does not really drop that much after 34 or 35 or whatever barrier you favor. It was shown that, as you say, the biggest difference is that most athletes just don't want to keep going as much as when they were younger. Of course, there are often other factors as well but not significant enough to state "Any athlete over 35 is incapable of competing at the highest level."

I would agree that Bekele may not be at his absolute peak anymore but he's still incredibly strong and its not as if Kipchoge (31 - ish) and Kipsang (35 - ish) are a couple of young guns he has to face.

And I might add that of course Bekele is not afraid to line up against the best marathoners because he is one of the best marathoners himself!

Jimmy21 wrote:

pay slight attention wrote:

Dead on. KB has not really had bad marathons, only bad buildups. The frustrating thing is we won't know till afterward if he's been healthy or not.

If healthy, I think he absolutely can challenge Kipchoge and both of them can run 2:02:15, possibly 2:02:00 if the pacing is dead on. But a real race has surges and the pacesetters drop early (especially if they shoot for 61:00) which complicates things.

How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?

Unless i'm missing something, he's only had 2 DNFs and i don't think either are because of bad build up. Both being Dubai and this year was because he was trampled at the start and the prior he was injured....so much so it took him an entire year to get back into running