This is quite a simple question that is being overcomplicated:
The most significant portions of the race are the 1200m and the 1600m. These constitute, percentage wise, the largest part of the race.
El Guerrouj has about a 3:42 1600m PR (3:43.13 mile) and a 2:44.75 1200m split (and he tied up badly the last 300 of that race, so his all-out 1200 is probably no more than 0.5 seconds faster).
He wins easily, because no 800m runner would beat him by enough in the 400 (he has 47) or the 800 (probably for him, at his absolute best, 1:42-1:43) to make up for that lost time in the longest 2 races.
Coe is not even close. He gives up 4 seconds in the 1600, another likely 3 in the 1200 (2:47 for him, let's assume, based on a 3:29 1500 PR), beats El G by 1-2 in the 800, and beats him by perhaps 1 second in the 400.
That's El Guerrouj by 4-5.
The ONLY person who has a snowball's chance, at his prime (and he was only at his prime for TWO YEARS) is Ngeny, with a 3:42 1600, possibly a 2:43-high to 2:44 low 1200, a 1:42 800 (he split 1:44 in a THOUSAND, for goodness sakes) and a 46-high to 47 low 400.
It would be incredibly close though, and he has never approached his 3:43 because he has never followed anyone else but El G at that pace, once (because no one can hit that pace).