Shaunae Miller-Uibo vs Caster Semenya over 400

If I could give some of my testosterone to Shaunae Miller, I would.

I want Miller to win.

Name in Hiding wrote:

If I could give some of my testosterone to Shaunae Miller, I would.

I want Miller to win.

So, so, true. I can't believe I am saying that.

PBs

200m 24.35 -1.4 Potchefstroom (RSA) 01.03.2016

300m 37.22 Sasolburg (RSA) 28.03.2017

400m 50.40 Bruxelles (BEL) 09.09.2016

600m 1:25.56 Turku (FIN) 13.06.2012

800m 1:55.28 Rio de Janeiro (BRA) 20.08.2016

1500m 4:01.99 Durban (RSA) 24.06.2016

my guess is she is closer to her top end than most people think

400 potential 49.70

800 potential 1:54.8

1500potential 4:01.2

what's impressive to me about semenya's prs is that her 400 and 1500 times both score 1190 on the IAAF tables, suggesting that she's a well-balanced runner. that's not too common in the 800, where you mostly see athletes that trend sprint-side (e.g. kratochvílová) or endurance side (e.g. makhloufi)

smellslike a fine kettleo'fish wrote:

my guess is she is closer to her top end than most people think

400 potential 49.70

800 potential 1:54.8

1500potential 4:01.2

I basically agree with this assessment. Semenya does not have unlimited potential. But this will be the first time since 2015 that she has faced a potentially superior opponent. It should make for a very interesting race.

tgirl wrote:

smellslike a fine kettleo'fish wrote:

my guess is she is closer to her top end than most people think

400 potential 49.70

800 potential 1:54.8

1500potential 4:01.2

I basically agree with this assessment. Semenya does not have unlimited potential. But this will be the first time since 2015 that she has faced a potentially superior opponent. It should make for a very interesting race.

Makes me wonder how she'll handle it mentally.

I'm giving the edge to Miller-Uibo... I doubt she'll dive for it so she doesn't get injured before worlds.

tgirl wrote:

smellslike a fine kettleo'fish wrote:

my guess is she is closer to her top end than most people think

400 potential 49.70

800 potential 1:54.8

1500potential 4:01.2

I basically agree with this assessment. Semenya does not have unlimited potential. But this will be the first time since 2015 that she has faced a potentially superior opponent. It should make for a very interesting race.

Considering she is a biological male racing against biological females we have no clue what her potential is and pretty much should consider it unlimited with respect to the women's division. Remember agaisnt males she would only be ranked around 5000th place or worse.

Just another guy wrote:

tgirl wrote:

I basically agree with this assessment. Semenya does not have unlimited potential. But this will be the first time since 2015 that she has faced a potentially superior opponent. It should make for a very interesting race.

Considering she is a biological male racing against biological females we have no clue what her potential is and pretty much should consider it unlimited with respect to the women's division. Remember agaisnt males she would only be ranked around 5000th place or worse.

She is as genetically female as Jamie Lee Curtis who is also intersex

surely caster can run 200 meters a lot quicker than 24.35? she must have been jogging to run that.i believe if she ran all out,she'd really run 21.7/48.6/1.51/3.48.we will never see her run that fast though,because she only ever runs fast enough to win her races.i believe she could easily beat shaunae,but i dont think she will.she'll either run second or third,in a personal best time,perhaps break 50 seconds,perhaps not quite.caster isnt stupid.shes certainly capable of breaking world records,but she never will,because she knows there would be an outcry,if she did.

jeff tallon wrote:

surely caster can run 200 meters a lot quicker than 24.35? she must have been jogging to run that.i believe if she ran all out,she'd really run 21.7/48.6/1.51/3.48.we will never see her run that fast though,because she only ever runs fast enough to win her races.i believe she could easily beat shaunae,but i dont think she will.she'll either run second or third,in a personal best time,perhaps break 50 seconds,perhaps not quite.caster isnt stupid.shes certainly capable of breaking world records,but she never will,because she knows there would be an outcry,if she did.

Those times are entirely pulled from nowhere.

For a start, anyone running 21.7/48.6 and 3:48 would definitely break 1:50 maybe even run 1:49.

Silly times.

21.7? Marita Koch's PB and former World Record? No way. Caster is not better than 22.7 or similar

800ftw. wrote:

jeff tallon wrote:

surely caster can run 200 meters a lot quicker than 24.35? she must have been jogging to run that.i believe if she ran all out,she'd really run 21.7/48.6/1.51/3.48.we will never see her run that fast though,because she only ever runs fast enough to win her races.i believe she could easily beat shaunae,but i dont think she will.she'll either run second or third,in a personal best time,perhaps break 50 seconds,perhaps not quite.caster isnt stupid.shes certainly capable of breaking world records,but she never will,because she knows there would be an outcry,if she did.

Those times are entirely pulled from nowhere.

For a start, anyone running 21.7/48.6 and 3:48 would definitely break 1:50 maybe even run 1:49.

Silly times.

"Definitely break 1:50 maybe even run 1:49"???

i agree,those times are pulled from nowhere,and are silly times,but then these are silly times we're living in.caster is said to be biologically male,definatly mixed gender.she has an intersex condition,plus shes a gifted athlete.i dont believe she could break marita koch's world record,but the 800 and 1500 records would be hers for the taking,if she went all out.she looks like she jogs her races,which suggests great leg speed,and great endurence.

very hard to estimate her line of fit as 1500m is clearly over-distance for her & can't expect to run her best possible 1500 off 800 training

to run best possible 1500 needs more endurance work than you do for 800

but i found some interesting lines of fit which do need consideration that women's 600 times are generally nonsense

49.50 / 1'20.75

-> 1'53.82

3'58.60

49.25 / 1'20.50

-> 1'53.60

3'58.68

49.00 / 1'20.25

-> 1'53.39

3'58.76

i'll frankly admit, there is no real logical reason to pick any one of those 3 over the others, but experience draws me to that middle one

i do get gut feeling that 49-low is her best possible currently, which still woud put him outside the 1'53.28wr

however, this does require her to go out in ~ 24-low

if she goes out in 24-high/25-flat it is virtually impossible to break 50, no matter how good your intrinsic 400 is

Just another guy wrote:

tgirl wrote:

I basically agree with this assessment. Semenya does not have unlimited potential. But this will be the first time since 2015 that she has faced a potentially superior opponent. It should make for a very interesting race.

Considering she is a biological male racing against biological females we have no clue what her potential is and pretty much should consider it unlimited with respect to the women's division. Remember agaisnt males she would only be ranked around 5000th place or worse.

Does she squat to pee? Well guess what.....female.

interestingly, using some logic, we coud narrow the range of her possible 400

we know that 4'01 is far off her hypothetical as she doesn't train for it & over-distance

we do know her 1'55-low pb is a nonsense as she doesn't go flat-out from gun in it & 1'54+ is a given, more likely 1'53+ but big ? mark over whether she can ever run 1'53.27

folowing on from previous

48.75 / 1'20.00

-> 1'53.17

3'58.84

as i don't see 1'53.27 in her sights, this set must be too quick for 400/600

-> 48.75 is too quick for her possible 400

49.75 / 1'21.00

-> 1'54.03

3'58.52

this set has a 800 of 1'54+ which i'm sure most everyone agrees is too slow if she really went for flat-out 800

-> 49.75 is too slow for her potential 400

logical conclusion is that 48.75 is too quick & 49.75 is too slow

somewhere in middle of that range is the place to start for her potential 400 ->

~ 49.25

we get again 49-low

i do believe in absolute peak shape & flat-out from gun she can run this

Just another guy wrote:

Considering she is a biological male racing against biological females we have no clue what her potential is and pretty much should consider it unlimited with respect to the women's division. Remember agaisnt males she would only be ranked around 5000th place or worse.

Exactly. I don't know where the "she" comes into this, except unless we call him a she the posts get removed from LRC, therefore "she" is an XY biological male (though still a "she" for posting purposes).

D3 Miler wrote:

Entry lists for the Rabat Diamond League meet are up, and they include this fascinating matchup between Olympic champions. Who do you think has the advantage? Miller-Uibo's PR is a full second faster, but as we all know, Semenya appears to always put forth the minimum effort necessary to win. The way she runs this race should be a good indicator of whether or not she actually can challenge the 800 record should she attempt it. It's also interesting to see her in a situation where she is likely the underdog, given all the controversy. Also, we shouldn't forget about Quanera Hayes in this one, who has the fastest SB in the field.

Prediction: Miller-Uibo 49.5, Semenya 49.6, Hayes also sub-50.

https://rabat.diamondleague.com/en/programme_results_rabat/

This race is between Miller Uibo and Hayes. Semenya's sit and kick tactics will likely work on the rest of the field, though a resurgent Okolo might edge her out for 3rd place.

SMU 49.61

QH 49.69

CO 50.19

CS 50.39

[quote]smellslike a fine kettleo'fish wrote:

PBs

200m 24.35 -1.4 Potchefstroom (RSA) 01.03.2016

300m 37.22 Sasolburg (RSA) 28.03.2017

400m 50.40 Bruxelles (BEL) 09.09.2016

600m 1:25.56 Turku (FIN) 13.06.2012

800m 1:55.28 Rio de Janeiro (BRA) 20.08.2016

1500m 4:01.99 Durban (RSA) 24.06.2016

my guess is she is closer to her top end than most people think

400 potential 49.70

800 potential 1:54.8

1500potential 4:01.2