How badly is Ossoff going to lose the special election in Georgia's 6th District?

Ossoff might actually win

I live about a mile outside the district. It's going to be a turnout game. Ossoff got 48% the first time, he'll hold those. Handel got 19% but the Republicans will gather around her so that gives her 52% if she holds all of them (results from the first time around here)

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/

.

Trouble is she's run for a lot of offices in GA and made some enemies of some on the R ticket. I think an automatic conversion of all 52% is improbable. She's probably got a solid 48% of folks who will show up and vote the party line, but there are just enough folks who won't that it's really toss up.

Soft math shows it's basically going to come down to retirees (R) vs soccer moms (D). There's a lot of both in this district, so who shows up to vote.

Its going to rain tomorrow. That typically depresses turnout.

Some polls show a slight edge in in person early voters favoring Democrats (based on party affiliation only). Absentee mail in ballots favor R's - but that is based on mailed out, not total returned...

It's going to be a nail biter, and if any of you have watched GA election results, they don't come in very fast. We should know tomorrow night, bit it may well be a wee-hours of the morning call too.

AJC has a paywall, but here's a quick story on their free site on the early voting turn out:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/unprecedented-early-vote-ahead-georgia-6th-district-runoff-foretells-huge-turnout/9JEzcwhat5jQEAWj7s6OSL/

Dumb Even By wrote:

Ossoff might actually win

Dumb Even By wrote:

Ossoff might actually win

Only if you have the warped DemonRAT perspective on winning....meaning he loses by < 5 points. That close of a race and all the fake news outlets will run stories about how the GOP is in trouble, Trump is unpopular, blah, blah, blah. The Dems are going down again!

#MAGA

Georgia is a Red State!!!!! wrote:

Dumb Even By wrote:

Ossoff might actually win

Only if you have the warped DemonRAT perspective on winning....meaning he loses by < 5 points. That close of a race and all the fake news outlets will run stories about how the GOP is in trouble, Trump is unpopular, blah, blah, blah. The Dems are going down again!

#MAGA

Just like Corbyn "winning" the latest UK election, when May/DUP are now in power.

Dumb Even By wrote:

Ossoff might actually win

He will not. Guarantee it. Trump has inside info (spook intel) that she will win, so he suddenly "supported" Handel at the last minute with tons of tweets, trying to ride her coattails.

Trump doesn't side with losers.

#flipthe6th

about as badly as Theresa May thumped all comers in the British election. In other words, Ossoff's got a chance to win this because conservative predictions are not based on facts and Georgia being a red state isn't particularly relevant to what happens in one particular district.

Interesting microcosm of political discourse here: we have a tossup race (see betting markets; even if you have some reason to doubt a polling average it's hard to see why you'd think a bunch of people betting real money should be systematically biased here), a few people explaining that it is a tossup race, and one or more "conservatives" pissing in the pond.

Anyone here actually live in the district? What's the most expensive House race in history been like?

Ossoff is restricting "fake news" propaganda outfits like Free Beacon from covering him.

The amount of money that has been spent on this single House district is obscene. No matter who wins, everyone loses. This is all about money buying influence no matter how you slice it.

The irony is that there will be no "spoils" for the winner, no momentum carrying through to next year. It will not impact anything significantly at all.

For those who don't know, Ossof is a poser "Berniecrat," though of course Sanders himself is a poser too. This is a continuation, and possibly the last gasp, of the Democrats' failed attempts to appear left wing.

Well, it looks like Handle is going to get a close win now as she inexplicably has decided to not assault anyone which would've guaranteed a Yuge win for her and the GOP. Instead, we'll get a win by < 5 points which will be interpreted by the fake news outlets as 1) a harbinger of things to come in future elections (the GOP is doomed!!!) 2) that Trump is unpopular (LOL!!! Still has 80%+ support in GOP polls) 3) as somehow a win for the Dems (I guess a close loss is a win if you're a serial loser like the libs).

#MAGA

Bad Wigins wrote:

The amount of money that has been spent on this single House district is obscene. No matter who wins, everyone loses. This is all about money buying influence no matter how you slice it.

The irony is that there will be no "spoils" for the winner, no momentum carrying through to next year. It will not impact anything significantly at all.

For those who don't know, Ossof is a poser "Berniecrat," though of course Sanders himself is a poser too. This is a continuation, and possibly the last gasp, of the Democrats' failed attempts to appear left wing.

God I hate leftist like Obummer and Colonel Sanders, don't you BW? I mean these guy are textbook leftists. Everyone with a brain and an understanding of politics knows this to be true. The only deniers are Russian FSB agents, FSB sponsored trolls, and Putin fanbois.

Will be curious how much is spent per vote received. Too bad they can't just give the people $100 or so as they go into the polls - a little bribe to vote for whichever candidate.

and in a local perspective wrote:

.

Some polls show a slight edge in in person early voters favoring Democrats (based on party affiliation only). Absentee mail in ballots favor R's - but that is based on mailed out, not total returned...

Mail in ballots have the highest incidence of voter fraud.

What polls are some of you looking at? The ones I see all have Ossoff winning. Seems pollsters need to tweak things a bit though these days, but I'm not sure anyone can be confident of a Handel win just yet.

Bad Wigins wrote:

The amount of money that has been spent on this single House district is obscene. No matter who wins, everyone loses. This is all about money buying influence no matter how you slice it.

The irony is that there will be no "spoils" for the winner, no momentum carrying through to next year. It will not impact anything significantly at all.

For those who don't know, Ossof is a poser "Berniecrat," though of course Sanders himself is a poser too. This is a continuation, and possibly the last gasp, of the Democrats' failed attempts to appear left wing.

Lots of winners with all that money being spent. TV and radio ad sales mean profits for those companies, employee bonuses and dividends to shareholders.

Sign makers made money.

Some staffers were paid as well.

The influence of spending is probably overblown

Flagpole wrote:

What polls are some of you looking at? The ones I see all have Ossoff winning. Seems pollsters need to tweak things a bit though these days, but I'm not sure anyone can be confident of a Handel win just yet.

Don't weigh in on elections.

Will you never learn?

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

What polls are some of you looking at? The ones I see all have Ossoff winning. Seems pollsters need to tweak things a bit though these days, but I'm not sure anyone can be confident of a Handel win just yet.

Don't weigh in on elections.

Will you never learn?

Flagpole is more intelligent than all of us so he has to weigh in. When you are a wannabe Democrat-elite intellectual, you have to always voice your opinion for those of us who are incapable of thinking for ourselves.