Say if I ran a 2:55 in the thon as a result of some ok high mileage training (70, 80+ miles per week), and if I kept training this way for a year, then for 5 years straight, how much would someone who's in their late 30's progress?
Would 5 minutes per year be reasonable? Or would it be closer to 10 minutes?
Similarly, how much would someone progress given the same training and the 2:55 starting point, if they were in their late 20's? Late 40's?
I would say that if they've run a 2:55 'thon then they've already peaked. No more training is needed.
unless ur a chick, don't run in a thong any year
Maybe 5 min for a couple years then they would fade. They are already getting old and if they already ran 2:55 off of 80 mile weeks, they are likely near their peak.
Doping works wrote:
Maybe 5 min for a couple years then they would fade. They are already getting old and if they already ran 2:55 off of 80 mile weeks, they are likely near their peak.
Really? You've never seen a mid or late 40's runner run in the 2:30's?
I just thought that there'd be some kind of formula or a loose guide, like "expect to progress by 8 minutes per year until you're hitting 2:30".
First of all, 70-80 miles a week is not high mileage.
If you can't conceptualize running 120-140, you are limited by the contents of your brain.
Don't expect anything. Just do the work and see what happens.
I've wondered the same thing. Im 33, been running for only 1 year at about 40 miles a week. Im aiming for a fall marathon and I think I should be aiming for 2:50, but I'll be conservative and be aiming for 2:55. How much faster could I get if I give it a few more years and get my milage to at least double
I would say the general rule of thumb is that slight increases in mileage often accompany slight improvements in time. So if you want to get your time faster, even by ~5min per year, you should probably try to increase your mileage slightly as well.
Serious Runner Type wrote:
Really? You've never seen a mid or late 40's runner run in the 2:30's?
I just thought that there'd be some kind of formula or a loose guide, like "expect to progress by 8 minutes per year until you're hitting 2:30".
Of course I have, but generally those runners have talent they have been cultivating for years. A guy in his late 30s who spent a year running 80 mpw and ran 2:55 doesn't have much room for improvement after that before injuries become and issue. I would expect something around 2:40 to be his peak.
but every runner is different so there is not a set formula.