In general, do you believe that an average, post collegiate XC/T&F distance runner, could run a Sub3 in the marathon on basically just natural ability to run. No specific training, random amount of weekly miles lower than normal marathon training. Could raw talent pull them through?
Discus?
Maybe.
I think this runner could hit all the equivalent times of a sub-3 for the other distances with no problem. Like a sub 40, 10k or a Half in the mid 1:20's.
But the marathon is different. It beats you up so much that talent starts to matter less in the final 6 to 8 miles.
So if your "random amount of weekly miles" includes some 20+ mile long runs, sure. If not, well, I'd lean towards no.
But, this is an interesting experiment. Report back when you do it, I would love to hear the results.
This is a great question. Depends on what amount of talent we are talking about.
a 14:30 5k guy vs a 15:30 5k guy is a big difference.
My answer is going to be no it would take some specific training. Not true marathon training, but they would need to stretch out a few long runs out to 20 miles. Could limit to 40 mile weeks but 2-3 LR of 18-20 would be needed.
With a slight adjustment to training, they could do it. Your "random amount of weekly mileage" is what made me say no. There would need to be some level of commitment. Doing 20 mile weeks with long runs of 10 miles isn't going to do it.
I have wondered about this quite a bit when it comes to myself, literally whether or not I could go sub 3:00 in the marathon. I'm a senior in high school an I'm a 15:50-16:00 5k guy in XC but I specialize in the 800 on the track but I also have decent mile strength. I know that doesn't exactly sound conducive to a good marathon but here's why I think I would have a pretty good shot at sub 3:00. I can go 15@6:30 very easily, run 7-8 mile tempos at 6:00 comfortably and run 4 mile tempos at 5:30 also comfortably. I have run 40-60 MPW for 3 years and 7:00 is a jog. Obviously 15 milers are a different beast than marathons but as long as I fueled and hydrated properly and was smart about pace I really believe I could go sub 3:00.
Maybe I'm wrong though.
When I was a freshman in college, some of my teammates had run a marathon after the previous cross country season, with no specific training for that marathon. One guys whose 10K road PR was about 31:40 ran 2:35, and the other two had road 10Ks of 33+ and ran over 3, like 3:05-3:10.
In your question I'm not sure what "average" means, but the latter two guys were midpack and D2 runners which sounds average in a way.
A top notch D1 athlete most definitely provided they still were active and close to racing weight. Between the genetic physical and either developed mental/genetic mental make-up no doubt very easily.
I think you could if you run enough miles without any specific training. For me, I wasn't even close to running in college and ran around 2:06 in 800m in high school.
I just run for enjoyment and I'm 34, and all I do is run on most days 3-6 miles, and I ran 1:25 in hm and 3:10 in marathon but it was a really hilly course and I'm heavy for a runner at over 170 at 5'9". I'll try running a marathon again on a flatter course and I think I can go under 3 without any marathon specific training.
for arguments sake well say average is 15:00 5k, 31:00 10k during college career. Runs 30-40mpw now. several years removed from college training. spent those 4 years will on/off training.
disclaimer**this is fabricated so times may not be realistic
Sub-3 wrote:
for arguments sake well say average is 15:00 5k, 31:00 10k during college career. Runs 30-40mpw now. several years removed from college training. spent those 4 years will on/off training.
disclaimer**this is fabricated so times may not be realistic
6:50 would probably be slower than easy pace. So the question is really "could this runner complete a 26.2 mile easy run without building up to it." I'd say yes
Sub-3 wrote:
for arguments sake well say average is 15:00 5k, 31:00 10k during college career. Runs 30-40mpw now. several years removed from college training. spent those 4 years will on/off training.
disclaimer**this is fabricated so times may not be realistic
You are cutting it darn close. Its possible. Again it largely would depend on his training. But its possible.
To splits guy: you could maybe do it on a perfect day on a fast course.
Maybe that's blocking my judgment too, I have never run in good weather on a fast course. In the right conditions it can be done.
Sub-3 wrote:
for arguments sake well say average is 15:00 5k, 31:00 10k during college career. Runs 30-40mpw now. several years removed from college training. spent those 4 years will on/off training.
disclaimer**this is fabricated so times may not be realistic
I think most of those runners could run sub 3 in a marathon, provided they did a few 20 milers leading up to the marathon. If they didn't do a few long runs like that, I'd say maybe 30 to 40% would still go under 3.
I had a teammate in college who was slightly slower than those times you listed. He was constantly injured, so finally gave up on really training for running. After college, he decided to do a marathon. Since he knew there was no way he could handle the training, he instead did 90m to 2hr bike rides daily, with two weekly runs, one of 7 or 8 miles, the other of 15 to 20 miles. He did this for three months leading up to his first marathon and ran 2:48. But that isn't quite "no marathon specific training," since his long runs were obviously geared towards the marathon, although some elite 10k runners do long runs that long.
Yep, I'm living proof.
I am a tall, skinny runner with a pb of 2:48 off sporadic training. Probably averaged 20 mpw over the preceding 5 years due to numerous injuries (I am biomechanically flawed due to one leg being shorter than the other by 2-3cm) with my longest week being 60 miles.
I still believe i could go sub-2.30 if i could stay injury free for 12 months - and that is considering i am 35 and have not run for 3 years.
Sub-3 wrote:
In general, do you believe that an average, post collegiate XC/T&F distance runner, could run a Sub3 in the marathon on basically just natural ability to run. No specific training, random amount of weekly miles lower than normal marathon training. Could raw talent pull them through?
Discus?
A competitive college run I think could. We used to run 14-16 miles a week for our long runs. I'm pretty sure I could have jumped in a marathon at any time in college and run sub 3 hours. It's not that fast, really. A d3 walkon...now that's a different story.
In the midst of 5k or 10k training? Of course!!
But I took his original question to mean what he laid out later. A college runner who ran off and on post collegiate for a few years before trying to break three off of natural talent.
Running a marathon off college training isn't running sub 3 on pure talent. College training is better than most marathoners training.
A post collegiate guy whose at least trained in the pasted maybe but i have a hard time believing anyone whose never ran could just up and do it. 26 miles is a long ways to go out of the blue
Ran 2:53 off 3mile runs everyday at 6:20-30pace 3weeks prior. Nothing else
Felt great first 18, 18-22 really hard, 22-finish hurt locker and contemplated life. If you have natural speed you can possibly get away with something like this.
I successfully did this in the mid 1990s, just after my senior year track season was over. I was an 800m runner and had just come off a PR of 1:53, at a last chance meet in mid May. A guy that lived down the street from my parents was running in a marathon the first week of June. He tried to get me to run it with him. Him and my dad were giving me all kinds of shit about it, questioning my manhood etc, so finally I agreed to do it. I hadn't gone on a run longer than 10 miles since late April. At the time I was running maybe 30 miles a week at most. I was more of a speed guy than an endurance guy, but I worked hard in the weight room and on hills. Even though I didn't have a mileage base, I think this work helped me. I didn't go into the thing thinking about breaking 3 hours. I was looking to finish and run a respectable time. I started out Trying to hit 6:25 pace and was able to hold it fairly comfortably until 22 miles. I fell apart the last 2 miles bad but still ended up running 2:58. My feet were killing me. I couldn't get on my dress shoes for work the next day because my feet were so swollen, I had to wear my Dads shoes. It took me a couple of weeks to start feeling normal again. I've never run another marathon since. Maybe I would have enjoyed it more had I trained properly.
Splits Guy wrote:
I have wondered about this quite a bit when it comes to myself, literally whether or not I could go sub 3:00 in the marathon. I'm a senior in high school an I'm a 15:50-16:00 5k guy in XC but I specialize in the 800 on the track but I also have decent mile strength. I know that doesn't exactly sound conducive to a good marathon but here's why I think I would have a pretty good shot at sub 3:00. I can go 15@6:30 very easily, run 7-8 mile tempos at 6:00 comfortably and run 4 mile tempos at 5:30 also comfortably. I have run 40-60 MPW for 3 years and 7:00 is a jog. Obviously 15 milers are a different beast than marathons but as long as I fueled and hydrated properly and was smart about pace I really believe I could go sub 3:00.
Maybe I'm wrong though.
I think you could run sub-3 right now. But what you are doing is actually fairly close to marathon training for some people.
15 at 6.30 suggests you could easily run 2.50 flat within a month or so but to do that I think you would need a few 20 milers under your belt.
I am going to belabor the point that a 3 hour marathon is the rough equivalent of a 2:30 800. Do you suppose anyone could run that on raw talent?
Even by the data-deficient IAAF tables (800's slower than 2 minutes are rarely recorded for men) it's only a 2:17, and lots of people still do that.
Having run competitively in college is a good indication that yes sub 3 is possible right off the bat.