One of my friends has a PR of 12.34 FAT in the 100m (cool time, bro), 5:04 in the mile, and earns $76K/year before taxes.
He claims that 99% of the world's population has never and will never run faster than him or earn more than him*. Does this sound right, and if not, what would the 99th percentiles be?
*could be due to a lack of time/motivation, not genetic limitations
As sad as it is, he is probably correct.
mostly down to luck, where you have been born. also he does not sound happy
His observation is almost certainly correct, but the only reason he even thought about it was "your friend" has a small p3nis.
He sounds correct, but also, a first rate douchebag.
A few quick numbers:
US population is 4.4% of the world population.
To be in the top decile (top 10%) of income earning in the US you need about $110k/yr.
So making $110k/yr would put him ahead of 99.56% of the world's population with the assumption that every person in every country outside of the US makes less than $110k/yr; which is a terrible assumption.
That said, even with that terrible assumption, I'd wager his $76k puts him below the 99% threshold.
And the 12.34 is barbarically slow. Most of the world plays soccer and I'd bet just about all of them could run 12.34 at their peak.
You had me with the income sbeefyk but no way on the time. Not even close.
sbeefyk1 wrote:
And the 12.34 is barbarically slow. Most of the world plays soccer and I'd bet just about all of them could run 12.34 at their peak.
I think more soccer players have run a 5:04 mile than a 12.34 100. Pretty much every soccer coach has their players run a timed mile for conditioning on a regular basis. Almost none of them do so for the 100. And besides, most of them don't have access to a fast rubberized track and FAT timing.
With that said, I think the percentages for those times would be around 3-5% for the mile and 0.8% for the 100, although they might be 10x higher if everyone actually trained for those events.
germanic wrote:
mostly down to luck, where you have been born. also he sounds incredibly insecure
Fixed.
I'm starting to doubt the income thing too. It may be true now, but it's hard to predict future economic growth.
I assume you your friend had a few pints before he made those statements. That was his Id talking, I assume. $76,000? That's a store manager at Walgreen Co. So what? That's about top1/3 income in USA? Maybe? In the world? There are a lot of wealthy Europeans who only fly into NYC, LA, Chicago and Miami, then leave. We do not see rich Europeans often. We often forget how many are very wealthy. Even underdeveloped countries have numerous people who make more than $76,000. The cost of living is a factor. Most people in underdeveloped countries do not need to make anywhere near $76,000 to have a decent life due to cost of living in an underdeveloped country. There are many soccer players around the world who will never race the mile but can run sub-5 mile. For soccer players to run sub-10:30 two miles is not uncommon. I'd say: top 92.5% for 100m, top 85% for one mile (do know most of the world are soccer players) and top 87.5% for income.
The number of people who have done any of those things is way more than 1% of the population. The number of people who have done all of those things is way less than 1%. Not much overlap between the 100m and mile, and even less overlap between athletic ability and the luck of being born in a rich country.
What does it even mean to say that you "can" out earn 99% of the population? Maybe he can, in that he has some set of skills that could enable him to earn millions of dollars per year under the right circumstances, but this is really unknowable and not even worth discussing. Better to discuss whether he does out earn 99% of the population than whether he can do so. And obviously he does not.
And then claiming that he can out earn these people "at their peak" makes it even further from reality. He currently out earns a lot of children, high school kids, and college students, but if we consider what their peak earnings will be in their prime earning years, he gets even further behind.
Top 1%:
100 - 11.3
Mile - 4:40
Income - $200K
faster than your friend wrote:
$76,000? So what? That's about top1/3 income in USA? Maybe?
You're considering household income, not individual income.
a truth seeker wrote:
One of my friends has a PR of 12.34 FAT in the 100m (cool time, bro), 5:04 in the mile, and earns $76K/year before taxes.
He claims that 99% of the world's population has never and will never run faster than him or earn more than him*. Does this sound right, and if not, what would the 99th percentiles be?
*could be due to a lack of time/motivation, not genetic limitations
ha! He doesn't even meet the LRC troll standard, (14min 5k, 200k a year, smokin' hot wife).
He's probably right though, and he probably beats the average joe in all those categories by a long shot.
Usain Bolt laughs at this guy.
more realistic wrote:
Top 1%:
100 - 11.3
Mile - 4:40
Income - $200K
Not 1 in 100 can either run an 11.3 or a 4:40. Maybe 1 in a 1000. Maybe.
faster than your friend wrote:
I assume you your friend had a few pints before he made those statements. That was his Id talking, I assume.
We were in a sports bar when the TV mentioned some girl who ran a 12.1 100. We gave him a hard time about being chicked by a girl who barely started high school, and one of us said something like "She'll get a Nike sponsorship in a few years and make more than you too" when he made that 99% claim.
I don't think he gave it much thought, but I'm wondering whether he might be right.
That's nuthin. I'm a Salt River Roarer! I'm a ring-tailed squealer! I'm a reg'lar screamer from the ol' Massassip'! WHOOP! I'm the very infant that refused his milk before its eyes were open, and called out for a bottle of old rye! I love the women an' I'm chockful o' fight! I'm half wild horse and half cockeyed-alligator and the rest o' me is crooked snags an' red hot snappin' turtle! I can hit like fourth-proof lightnin' an' every lick I make in the woods lets in an acre o' sunshine! I can drink a gallon of whisky and still shoot the tail off a pig at 90 paces! I can out-run, out-jump, out-shoot, out-brag, out-drink, an' out fight, rough-an'-tumble, no holts barred, ary man on both sides the river from Pittsburg to New Orleans an' back again to St. Louiee! Cock-a-doodle-doo!
oh please wrote:
Usain Bolt laughs at this guy.
I don't think he'll be laughing at the guy's mile time.