Race time prediction contest! Prove your knowledge as a runner...

4:52.4

For bonus points guess my 4x800 split.

Before I predict your 1600 time, please answer this: Are you running the 1600 fresh, or is the 4 x 800 relay run first?

Next time do the actual predictor session for that distance.

4x800 is first.

ukathleticscoach: if I had done a predictor session for the race I would be able to make a prediction myself. I was hoping more knowledgeable people would be able to guess based on speed type work like the ladder in conjunction with VO2 max work like the 1000s. It's supposed to be challenging to guess.

2:10-high split if going all out.

2:15-high if being conservative

Assuming you have about an hour before the 1600...

4:57.9

If it's a little longer... 4:55.8

If it's shorter... 5:01.3

If fresh (which it isn't) then 4:51.0

You're in big PR shape. I'm roughly as fast as you over 800-1600 and probably could not do those tempos. Since you have better endurance than before you'll have a big PR

4:48.56

2:09.23

If you were running fresh I would tell you to aim for a 4:50. As is I will guess 4:53.0, 2:09.5 relay split (would be 2:10 if in open race).

Based on that last 300m rep I will guess you have 58 flat 400 ability (all out, fresh, in spikes). Based on that 6x1000m workout I will guess you could run 17:20 for 5k on the track (It's closer to a predictor for 5000m).

Plugging those values into this calculator

http://timescalculator.appspot.com/calculator

gives you an approximate 2:08.84, 4:47.59.

Given that conditions will likely not be totally ideal and you will not be rested for the 1600 I will give you:

2:09.3, 4:54.6

If going all out on both:

2:12 800m, 4:58 1600m

Hmm. I think you'll go sub 5 this season, but not quite yet. 5:02.63

Dun dun duuuuuuuu wrote:

Ok Letsrun posters, prove how knowledgeable you are by predicting 1600 time tomorrow down to the nearest tenth of a second. I will post my time after the race and the closest guess will be declared the winner.

The information you have to make your guess:

PRs 2:14/5:04.6/11:04- all run on 15 mpw

Have recently bumped up my mileage to an average of 32.8 mpw for the last 5 weeks.

Weekly tempo and one track session for the past few weeks.

Tempos (sometimes on uneven rolling terrain): 3mi @ 6:04/mi, 3mi @ 6:24/mi, 3mi @ 5:55/mi

Recent workouts:

4x800 w/2-3min rest (2:39, 2:35, 2:32, 2:30) 6/10 RPE

6x1k w/ 3min rest (first: 3:30, avg. 3:26, last: 3:24), 7.5/10 RPE

300,400,600,400,300 ladder (47.5, 65.5, 1:47.5, 66.5, 44.4) 7.5/10 RPE

Good luck!

4:52.3

With 8 guesses in for the 1600 the average guess is...

4:54.9!

800 split average guess with 5 guesses in...

2:10.2!

If you don't agree with this now is the time to chime in folks!

2:09.2

4:57.3

1:40.90

3:42.12

Oh, this is fun. Let's add something different. Guess my...

marathon on a track!

Dun dun duuuuuuuu wrote:

Oh, this is fun. Let's add something different. Guess my...

marathon on a track!

This is not me

4:58.2

2:11.5

Ok. So the meet went pretty well:

Split 2:12.8-2:13.1

40 minutes later: 4:56.8

Bird legs is the champion at .5 sec off!

Next up was 1600/800 guy.

Additionally qwe wins some points for having the closest 800 guess. Probably did not run my absolute best in that race.

Joalturn and it totally depends were the two furthest off.