guys I have done the math and here is the pace for Joshua Cheptegei's final meters at World XC

Another note: the first lap was run by Cheptegei, Kamworor and the leaders in 5:12, or 4:11 pace!!! A lot of people are discussing the race as if Kamworor ran some super patient disciplined race, but he was right with the leaders on a very aggressive pace for the first three laps.

It was only on the fourth lap that Cheptegei went ahead by 12 seconds, which obviously turned out to be too much, too soon for him. But the lap splits don't exactly show a reigned-in run for Kamworor, either:

5:12

5:50

5:46

5:45 (Cheptegei 5:33)

5:51

And another limitation: of course all of this is assuming that the laps were really 2.00km, but for general estimates and broad-strokes discussion of faster vs slower I think that will do.

If Kamworor passed Cheptegei with 2:10 to go, and Cheptegei finished 1:44 behind, then it took Chep 3:54 to complete the final 770m, which is 8:09/mile (or ~8:28 if the remaining distance was 740m).

next morning nerdery wrote:

Another note: the first lap was run by Cheptegei, Kamworor and the leaders in 5:12, or 4:11 pace!!! A lot of people are discussing the race as if Kamworor ran some super patient disciplined race, but he was right with the leaders on a very aggressive pace for the first three laps.

It was only on the fourth lap that Cheptegei went ahead by 12 seconds, which obviously turned out to be too much, too soon for him. But the lap splits don't exactly show a reigned-in run for Kamworor, either:

5:12

5:50

5:46

5:45 (Cheptegei 5:33)

5:51

And another limitation: of course all of this is assuming that the laps were really 2.00km, but for general estimates and broad-strokes discussion of faster vs slower I think that will do.

The start and finish were about 200 meters apart on the loop. The first "lap" was not really a full lap, and wasn't that much faster than the second.

next morning nerdery wrote:

and the added fact from LetsRun that Kamworor passed 2:10 before finishing

Your second error is assuming Kamworor ran the same average pace over that last 2:10 as he did over the entire last lap. More likely he sped up.

Your first error is accepting what LetsRun reports as fact.

arthur halfer wrote:

If Kamworor passed Cheptegei with 2:10 to go, and Cheptegei finished 1:44 behind, then it took Chep 3:54 to complete the final 770m, which is 8:09/mile (or ~8:28 if the remaining distance was 740m).

Good point. I am feeling kind of sheepish here. First, my calculations led to 508 seconds/mile, which is 8:28 pace, not 6:28. (He really was running slower than my girlfriend.)

Of course, if you just go on a known distance remaining you can simply calculate the pace directly. (Typical of me to complicate it by coming up with Cheptegei was running 1.80 times the time per distance of Kamwowor blah blah blah.) I guess I wanted to come up with a way to do it without knowing the distance, since I wasn't sure of the different estimates I read. (740, 770?)

With the pace happening 2:10 from the finish (which I verified in the video), we can figure Kamwo's final stretch pace...

4:31.6 / mile if it was 770 out.

4:42.7 / mile if it was 740 out.

Later is much more plausible to me.

Novan wrote:

The start and finish were about 200 meters apart on the loop. The first "lap" was not really a full lap, and wasn't that much faster than the second.

That's a good point about the first lap. The 5:12 for 2k really did seem unbelievable and I was going to ask if that was the case like on many courses.

Bad Wigins wrote:

next morning nerdery wrote:

and the added fact from LetsRun that Kamworor passed 2:10 before finishing

Your second error is assuming Kamworor ran the same average pace over that last 2:10 as he did over the entire last lap. More likely he sped up.

Your first error is accepting what LetsRun reports as fact.

Not bad points, Brad. I can tell you are trying.

I checked the video and GK goes by JC with 26:14 on the clock. You could nitpick and call it 2:09 or 2:11, but 2:10 looks pretty close to perfect.

I disagree than Kamworor most likely sped up over the final third of the 2000m 5th lap. He expended tremendous energy coming back from a 12-second deficit, knew he was well clear, and based on the fact it was his slowest lap even with all of the chasing he was clearly suffering. Think, man.

Watching the race it was a strong finish, not a kick at all.

arthur halfer wrote:

If Kamworor passed Cheptegei with 2:10 to go, and Cheptegei finished 1:44 behind, then it took Chep 3:54 to complete the final ...(or ~8:28 if the remaining distance was 740m).

8:28 min/mi or 5:16 min/km is the correct answer for the average pace after Kam passed Chep.

But that includes at least 64 seconds of Cheptegei holding form (albeit slowing down), as can be seen from the video at 27:18 race clock. So let's say he ran those 64 seconds (290 m) at 6:00 min/mi (he was almost certainly faster). That would mean he covered the remaining 450 m in 2:50, which is 6:18 min/mi pace or 10:08 min/km. So that should be our lower bound for Chep's closing pace.

However, if we are looking only at the part where he REALLY struggled to stay on his feet, the picture looks different: Look at 27:33 race time, that is where his form totally changes and is reduced to an uncontrolled stumbling. What was his pace from there to the finish line? Again, taking 6 min/mi pace from the Kam pass to that moment, he has 210 m left, which he eventually covered in 1:55 - making the final 210 m at 14:41 min/mi or 9:08 min/km pace. That feels about right if you look at the pictures.

Obviously in the above, lower bound for the closing pace is 10:08 min/mi or 6:18 min/km, not the other way round.

Also, look at this video. No one is telling me, the guy is moving faster than 10 min/mi at the moment he passes the camera:

https://youtu.be/79lV_JTFDM0?t=38s

You really spent all that much time to prove that a guy experiencing heat exhaustion ran really really slow? Congrats.

shohohe wrote:

Obviously in the above, lower bound for the closing pace is 10:08 min/mi or 6:18 min/km, not the other way round.

Also, look at this video. No one is telling me, the guy is moving faster than 10 min/mi at the moment he passes the camera:

https://youtu.be/79lV_JTFDM0?t=38s

It looks like both of his calves must be cramped into total rocks. Just nails to finish.

Read a book wrote:

You really spent all that much time to prove that a guy experiencing heat exhaustion ran really really slow? Congrats.

1. It really didn't take me that long.

2. No, I spent to it find out at what speed he ran. For a guy with username "read a book" you should work on reading comprehension.

3. Even if I spent 5-10 minutes looking up splits and crunching some simple numbers on a topic I enjoy, I think that is much better than you spending 10 seconds posting your meaningless thoughts on it. I am doing something I like; you apparently have nothing better to do than react to others and offer your opinion. You sound like a small and sad person.

4. Have a great day!

Novan wrote:

The start and finish were about 200 meters apart on the loop. The first "lap" was not really a full lap, and wasn't that much faster than the second.

In the broadcast they said that the first lap was 1800 meters (I wasn't paying close attention during the juniors when I think it came up).

If that is right due to the position of the start, 5:12 over 1800 gives a pace of 4:39/mile or 5:46 per 2k for the leaders, actually quite even with the subsequent laps. (For Kamworor, that is; of course everyone in the initial lead pack eventually else fell off, mostly in lap 4.)

shohohe wrote:

Obviously in the above, lower bound for the closing pace is 10:08 min/mi or 6:18 min/km, not the other way round.

Also, look at this video. No one is telling me, the guy is moving faster than 10 min/mi at the moment he passes the camera:

https://youtu.be/79lV_JTFDM0?t=38s

Wow. That's the worst case of booty lock I've ever seen. I thought the last 50 meters of a mid tier women's 800 was terrible but WOW. This must have been the worst pain ever.

next morning nerdery wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

Your second error is assuming Kamworor ran the same average pace over that last 2:10 as he did over the entire last lap. More likely he sped up.

Your first error is accepting what LetsRun reports as fact.

Not bad points, Brad. I can tell you are trying.

I checked the video and GK goes by JC with 26:14 on the clock. You could nitpick and call it 2:09 or 2:11, but 2:10 looks pretty close to perfect.

I disagree that Kamworor most likely sped up over the final third of the 2000m 5th lap. He expended tremendous energy coming back from a 12-second deficit, knew he was well clear, and based on the fact it was his slowest lap even with all of the chasing he was clearly suffering. Think, man.

Watching the race it was a strong finish, not a kick at all.

The other posters perhaps-smarter direct method of taking Chep's time over the last 3:54, x 1609/740, actually yielded within a second of the exact same pace (8:28) as multiplying Kamwo's lap pace by the ratio of Chep's post-pass running time to Kamwo's: 4:42 x 3:54/2:10 = 4:42 * 1.80 = 8:28.

So indeed Kamwo ran the last portion at the same pace as the lap overall.

next morning nerdery wrote:

Read a book wrote:

You really spent all that much time to prove that a guy experiencing heat exhaustion ran really really slow? Congrats.

1. It really didn't take me that long.

2. No, I spent to it find out at what speed he ran. For a guy with username "read a book" you should work on reading comprehension.

3. Even if I spent 5-10 minutes looking up splits and crunching some simple numbers on a topic I enjoy, I think that is much better than you spending 10 seconds posting your meaningless thoughts on it. I am doing something I like; you apparently have nothing better to do than react to others and offer your opinion. You sound like a small and sad person.

4. Have a great day!

Please do not forget this part:

5.

arthur halfer wrote:

If Kamworor passed Cheptegei with 2:10 to go, and Cheptegei finished 1:44 behind, then it took Chep 3:54 to complete the final 770m, which is 8:09/mile (or ~8:28 if the remaining distance was 740m).

Then you said:

Good point. I am feeling kind of sheepish here. First, my calculations led to 508 seconds/mile, which is 8:28 pace, NOT 6:28. (He really was running slower than my girlfriend.)

Of course, if you just go on a known distance remaining you can simply calculate the pace directly. (Typical of me to COMPLICATE it by coming up with Cheptegei was running 1.80 times the time per distance of Kamwowor blah BLAH blah.) I GUESS I wanted to come up with A WAY to do it without knowing the distance, since I wasn't sure of the different estimates I read. (740, 770?)

6. Your brain is damaged and full of sh*t.

7. You should never never, never, ever, ever, ever be a MATH TEACHER.

8. Dig it???

ha ha ha

sbeefyk1 wrote:

shohohe wrote:

Obviously in the above, lower bound for the closing pace is 10:08 min/mi or 6:18 min/km, not the other way round.

Also, look at this video. No one is telling me, the guy is moving faster than 10 min/mi at the moment he passes the camera:

https://youtu.be/79lV_JTFDM0?t=38s

Wow. That's the worst case of booty lock I've ever seen. I thought the last 50 meters of a mid tier women's 800 was terrible but WOW. This must have been the worst pain ever.

Certainly not the worst I have seen, I have seen athletes crawl to the finish line puking, defecating on themselves and/or passing out. This athlete had the courage and presence of mind to keep his legs moving and more important to go for the win against an incredible athlete.

TrackCoach wrote:

Certainly not the worst I have seen, I have seen athletes crawl to the finish line puking, defecating on themselves and/or passing out. This athlete had the courage and presence of mind to keep his legs moving and more important to go for the win against an incredible athlete.

I agree this happens more frequently than you might think. People really go for it, and then blow up. Happens frequently in marathons and HS xc meets.

What I believe made JC's effort noteworthy:

1) It was World XC. A big stage with lots of people watching.

2) He pulled away to a big lead. People focus on the leaders. This happens more than you might think back in the pack, but few notice the middle/back of the pack.

3) Because it was World XC, the crowd support, and his fitness, JC was willing and able to push so hard that he physically just could not maintain it. Back in the pack, most of lesser fitness and determination slow down well before they reach this point.

It is rare to see this happen at the world class elite level. But it was a unique combination of the above, plus a deceptively tough course and hot day, which allowed us to watch this great effort.

Was this at one of those ultramarathons? I've seen people at the end of 100 milers running faster than that.