Did Flotrack screw up again and give out the wrong NCAA predictions?

Yes, they did and they owned it in their revised predictions.

as someone who doesn't really follow college XC during the season, these predictions and ranking and qualifying standards are so f*cking convaluted and hard to understand.

it's absolutely ridiculous.

how about this after some meets during the season:

-Conference Meet

-Regional Meet - top 3 teams from each region qualify (there are 9 regions, right?!)

-NCAA XC Final

* If you have a problem with some teams in a region that sucks qualifying over other teams in other regions are better, tough, go to a different school. You could also set up a bracket based on conference meet performances. Top 4 teams from conference qualify to a regional which is set up like ncaa basketball tournament and teams are distributed equally based on conf finish.

-move on to track & field

Please add a Gen-X'r and a Boomer to Flo-Track crew. Two years in a row are you kidding me? Last year it was CSU who took the bait, this year Furman. People watch that show because they want to know not for a 5 hour millennial comedy!

Feel bad for EKU and Furman. Great journalists those clowns are.

For those of you not paying close attention, there is an update. Flotrack for the 2nd year in a row has butchered the predictions and now is saying that our predictions are correct.

History repeats itself.

Maybe we should start charging $150 for our predictions.

LetsRun.com wrote:

For those of you not paying close attention, there is an update. Flotrack for the 2nd year in a row has butchered the predictions and now is saying that our predictions are correct.

History repeats itself.

Maybe we should start charging $150 for our predictions.

Didn't you have the women's qualifiers wrong until after you saw theirs and figured out your mistake...

maybe i'm missing something wrote:

as someone who doesn't really follow college XC during the season, these predictions and ranking and qualifying standards are so f*cking convaluted and hard to understand.

it's absolutely ridiculous.

how about this after some meets during the season:

-Conference Meet

-Regional Meet - top 3 teams from each region qualify (there are 9 regions, right?!)

-NCAA XC Final

* If you have a problem with some teams in a region that sucks qualifying over other teams in other regions are better, tough, go to a different school. You could also set up a bracket based on conference meet performances. Top 4 teams from conference qualify to a regional which is set up like ncaa basketball tournament and teams are distributed equally based on conf finish.

-move on to track & field

I still don't understand why people think the NCAA selection process is that hard to understand. In fact, I think it's quite easy to understand and a very FAIR system.

Qualification by...

AUTO: Being in the top two at your regional meet.

Based on the place of your place in a region and whose been already selected, the teams that beat most teams who've already been selected are chosen text.

This rewards teams that peaked at the right time AND raced well during the season. People gripe at NCAA track because there really aren't any meaningful meets until regionals, but at least cross country has 4 weekends that really mean something in terms of qualifying for nationals. Every team that makes it have legitimate reasons as to why they should be selected. The "bubble" teams really have only themselves to blame as they either didn't race good competition during the season or they shit the bed when they knew they needed to race well.

egomuch wrote:

LetsRun.com wrote:

For those of you not paying close attention, there is an update. Flotrack for the 2nd year in a row has butchered the predictions and now is saying that our predictions are correct.

History repeats itself.

Maybe we should start charging $150 for our predictions.

Didn't you have the women's qualifiers wrong until after you saw theirs and figured out your mistake...

No. We did not. We run a computer program. There is nothing to get wrong.

Nice try.

Can anyone even explain the qualifying system for NCAA's? I have a friend who was 26th at North East from Columbia and they finished 5th...and I wanted to see if they made it in but I doubt it.

Do you read the front page?

We have all of the qualifiers on there.

You go to NCAAs if you are one of the 31 teams that make (top 2 in each region + 13 at large teams) or one of the top 4 individuals in each of the 9 regions that isn't on a team that makes NCAAs (assuming you are in the top 25 of your region).

There also are two additional at large spots that go to the highest regional finisher that isn't already going. So if the best 4th individual in a region came in 5th in the region, then an individual who was 6th in the region would go even if they were the 5th best individual in that region.

For the at large teams, it's quite simple. They look at the teams that weren't top 2 in the region and figure out which 3rd place finisher (or possibly 4th place) has beaten the most number of teams already going to NCAAs. That team is then in. They then look to see if anyone has beaten that team and repeat the process until they get to 13 at large teams.

You can't go to NCAAs at #26 in your region as an individual. Columbia isn't going as a team. So no your friend isn't going.

They should just copy and paste what Letsrun posts.

They should just copy and paste what Letsrun posts.

You didn't include a race that Penn beat nova in...I was following along through the message board, on page 9:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=7856675&page=8#

rojo

co-founder

RE: Official NCAA XC Regional Thread -- Including LIVE At-Large Projections 11/11/2016 2:06PM - in reply to MWest

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MWest wrote:

So Flotrack has Penn instead of Boise St in, otherwise what I said. I believe the difference comes from this meet, where Nova ran four of their seven from today and lost to Penn. What a system.

https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/10700.html#84928

It appears that Iowa State's women's team at Roy Griak is a B team. Our preliminary run of the computer didn't have Penn getting in.

rojo

co-founder

RE: Official NCAA XC Regional Thread -- Including LIVE At-Large Projections 11/11/2016 2:08PM - in reply to rojo

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But we weren't counting the prestigious Main line invitational so we'll see what happens.

LetsRun.com

your benevolent dictator

RE: Official NCAA XC Regional Thread -- Including LIVE At-Large Projections 11/11/2016 2:15PM - in reply to rojo

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Okay, we have now added in the fact that Iowa State ran a B team at Roy Griak and that Penn beat Villanova at the Main Line Invite. Here are your final NCAA qualifiers on the women's side:

Teams selected:

1 michigan

2 notre dame

3 penn state

4 villanova

5 missouri

6 oklahoma state

7 colorado

8 new mexico

9 providence

10 harvard

11 mississippi state

12 mississippi

13 arkansas

14 baylor

15 nc state

16 louisville

17 stanford

18 washington

19 air force

20 utah

21 san francisco

22 oregon

23 portland

24 iowa state

25 yale

26 byu

27 wisconsin

28 michigan state

29 eastern michigan

30 penn

31 ucla

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=7856675&page=8#ixzz4PnQCwIf4

Laugh at FloSports all you want, but this just improves their resume to be bought up into the FiveThirtyEight family down the road.

egomuch wrote:

You didn't include a race that Penn beat nova in...I was following along through the message board, on page 9:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=7856675&page=8#

After all of the regions had finished, one poster was wondering why his projections were different than flotrack's (ours weren't even out yet) and I was saying he might be correct that he didn't include the Main Line invite in there. . I was just telling you the internal discussions we were having as I was on the phone with our computer guy.

We hadn't even run our model after the 9th region was done. We were making sure all of our inputs were correct. We got all of the inputs correct ran it and then posted it. What we posted was correct. We didn't care about rushing to get it out for either gender. Most of the kids haven't even got on the bus to go home yet.

We wanted to be correct. And we were.

Annie BOTHMA from Coastal Carolina won the Southeast region race, her team is not going and Flotrack does not show her as an individual qualifier?

maybe i'm missing something wrote:

as someone who doesn't really follow college XC during the season, these predictions and ranking and qualifying standards are so f*cking convaluted and hard to understand.

it's absolutely ridiculous.

how about this after some meets during the season:

-Conference Meet

-Regional Meet - top 3 teams from each region qualify (there are 9 regions, right?!)

-NCAA XC Final

* If you have a problem with some teams in a region that sucks qualifying over other teams in other regions are better, tough, go to a different school. You could also set up a bracket based on conference meet performances. Top 4 teams from conference qualify to a regional which is set up like ncaa basketball tournament and teams are distributed equally based on conf finish.

-move on to track & field

Yeah this idea sucks

At least, we're pretty sure they're correct! We'll find out for sure in a few hours.

It's pretty tricky as you need to get a LOT of season's results entered correctly, check for misspellings, and decide who ran A or B teams among 60 different squads (counting men and women) at dozens of different meets. That's where it helps letsrun a ton to have readers double-checking and posting if they see something new.

It's great for the sport that Flotrack and Letsrun are separately trying to figure out the selections to check against each other. Initial projections shouldn't be treated as 100% set in stone. Think of it more like "Here's our best guess at the moment, and as more info or debates come in we may make some updates". By the end of last night as the predictions got locked in, hopefully they're right, but we're still not 100% sure (at least I'm not) until the NCAA announcement.

-Bo

Pretentious D1 Coach wrote:

maybe i'm missing something wrote:

as someone who doesn't really follow college XC during the season, these predictions and ranking and qualifying standards are so f*cking convaluted and hard to understand.

it's absolutely ridiculous.

how about this after some meets during the season:

-Conference Meet

-Regional Meet - top 3 teams from each region qualify (there are 9 regions, right?!)

-NCAA XC Final

* If you have a problem with some teams in a region that sucks qualifying over other teams in other regions are better, tough, go to a different school. You could also set up a bracket based on conference meet performances. Top 4 teams from conference qualify to a regional which is set up like ncaa basketball tournament and teams are distributed equally based on conf finish.

-move on to track & field

Yeah this idea sucks

Basketball and football should do this too. Only 3 NE BB teams and 3 SE FB schools should qualify for NCAA tournament and bowl games, respectively.

there are too many teams at Nationals. Should be 6-8 schools max. No individual qualifiers. Too much bickering between whether the 4th best SE team should get in before the 8th team in the west. Neither contribute to a storyline at Nationals