Shannon Rowbury entered in Brussels 5000m, will she break the AR?

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

That's pretty precise. How will you know whether your odds were right?

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

You are so wrong. I calculated the odds at 11.32%.

14:40.94

Depends....are Simpson or Huddle in the race? If so, she'll just sit on them the whole way and will try to outkick them (probably unsuccessfully). If not, then maybe she'll run her own race and could have a shot, but I bet she'll be afraid of the hot pace and will lay off. No AR.

Ayana will not impact this significantly, because she'll be up by almost half a lap by the time it's over. She can get the American record but she'll likely need some runners to draft off, the way she runs all her races. Huddle, however, who just ran 14:55 for the first 5000m at the Olympics on the way to 30:13 AR, is more than capable of dipping well into the 14:30s.

reer wrote:

Depends....are Simpson or Huddle in the race? If so, she'll just sit on them the whole way and will try to outkick them (probably unsuccessfully). If not, then maybe she'll run her own race and could have a shot, but I bet she'll be afraid of the hot pace and will lay off. No AR.

With Ayana in the race there is no way Rowbury can sit on her. That would be a guaranteed DNF for Rowbury.

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

There's always the possibility this would be one race too many for the reason. But I don't suspect that. I think she can get the PR, by a little bit.

messinat wrote:

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

So…would that be… maybe... sort of... similar to…flipping…a…coin?

That is weird.

Hmm.

In conclusion:

There are very good odds that Shannon Rowbury is clean.

(I am not kidding.)

Go Shannon Rowbury! (…but please stop punching Laura Muir…and kicking Jenny Simpson in the face.)

OK?

messinat wrote:

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

I am attempting to break the marathon world record in my debut marathon. Fastest 5k is 18:40 I have 50% chance.... seems legit

lol talking about Rowbury drafting when you know damn well Simpson tried to draft off her the entire Zurich race.

Sure hope she does! Go Shannon go!

I say Rowbury runs14:36 the 14:42 is maybe the softest American Distances at Championship Distances for Woman.

Championship Distances Woman

800-1:56.4

1500-3:56.2

3000-8:25

Steeple- 9:07

5000-14:42

10000-30:13

Half Marathon-66:57 slight downhill, 67:34 official American Record

Marathon-2:19:36

The 5000 looks softest to me, Rowbury, Simpson, Huddle and Flanagan are all capable of sub 14:40.

Curiosity's cat wrote:

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

That's pretty precise. How will you know whether your odds were right?

My odds are always right. If she breaks it, I'll come back on here and say, "wow, the odds were against her, but she pulled it off. I did say there was about a 1-in-5 chance of just this happening!"

If she doesn't break it, I'll come back on here and say, "Yep, just like I told you guys, there was not even a 1-in-5 chance that Shannon could get the record."

messinat wrote:

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

Someone has a 92 IQ and 100k of debt....

That's not how odds work buddy.

You are correct. Well done.

To make it easier:

Please tell us the exact time Shannon will run in the 5K.

It is OK if you give a margin of error... of plus or minus…1/100 of a second.

Go:

?

messinat wrote:

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

You are right. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't. But that fact alone tells us nothing about how likely she is to break the record. Suppose you toss an unfair coin. You either get heads or tails, but b/c the coin isn't fair, they aren't equally likely.

As for what the probability "really" is, I think it's like David Friedman said about earthquake predictions: in many situations, "probabilities are a distraction." They give a false sense of precision and accuracy. They don't tell us more than "She could break it, but I don't think she will."

Unless, of course, you are wagering on whether she will break the record. Then all bets are off.

A lot of people are failing to realize the 50% guy was joking.