I'm 30 years old. Not a fabulous runner, never competed in high school or college, but I love it and do fine as local amateurs go. I'm around 70% age-graded performance at most distances. Hovering around 3-hour marathon, 5-minute mile, etc.
If I want to run in the 2020 Olympics: what event is most likely to get me there, how (and how much) do I have to train, and if I complete that training perfectly what are my chances?
You're totally there.
Just go out twice every day -- once in the morning and once in the evening -- and run 10x1mile repeats. And within four years, BOOM, you'll be world class. That's all there is to it. It's really easy.
See you in Tokyo!!! I'll be running at least 6 T&F events and I think I might do a swimming event as well because I want a real chance at a WR.
Women's events are ripe for the taking now that they admit dudes. That's your best bet.
You're probably on the smaller side as far as builds go. You should try equestrian or pick up one of the shooting sports - rifle, pistol, archery, etc... You're not going to make it as a runner.
You can, however, train to run, stay injury free, and be a top local master runner after you are 40. It's what most of us on this board will end up being.
modern pentathlon
Learn Japanese and be an IOC official lackey and run around the arena at midnight when Usain Bolt normally throws javalins.
Consider becoming a Peruvian citizen.
You might even consider moving to a small Pacific Island nation. If you actually live there, many of them will let you represent them if you pay all costs.
Insert your testicles into your body cavity. Go speak to a fellow name Al. He knows a lot about dosing issues. He is slow and often mislabels lots of things but do play along. He knows what he is doing. If all that fails, wear a turbin and change your citizenship to Saudia Arabia.
What are the nationalities of your grandparents?
Women's 800M. just work on your speed and you'll be there. See you in Tokyo I'll be doing several women's events myself as long as other men don't steal my idea and bump me from my spot.
You could move and get citizenship somewhere, like a remote island nation, and try to be the best in the country for an "open qualification" where they allow two spots, one in track and field, and one in swimming for an event, no matter that you didn't make the Olympic qualifying time for that event. Most people pick something simple like the 100m or the shortest freestyle length. But you should do something super tactical like the 1500.
Simple answer wrote:
Women's 800M. just work on your speed and you'll be there. See you in Tokyo I'll be doing several women's events myself as long as other men don't steal my idea and bump me from my spot.
He's a 5 minute miler, he ain't gonna break 2 no matter how hard he trains like a lady.
Have you picked out your dressage coach yet? How fast is your horse though?
I am an average runner too (2,56marathon). It is a disproportionate purpose, totally. If you like the sport, just try to have another role in the business.