Shalane will win Gold

not entirely impossible, but highly unlikely to get gold

a medal is not out of reach though

She will not race like that. She does not have Joannie Samuelson kind of courage. She will run amongst the leaders and fade with the increase in pace and be nowhere to be found with 5k to go.

She always races the same way in Major marathons.

She will not be the first American. She was third in the trials.

Suuure wrote:

She will not be the first American. She was third in the trials.

She has proven since that was a fluke. Just ask1st place at the trials Amy Cragg.

When us the last time she has beaten Desi in a Marathon? It's not Amy she has to worry about.

Suuure wrote:

When us the last time she has beaten Desi in a Marathon? It's not Amy she has to worry about.

2014 Boston Marathon when she was aggressive and pushed the pace.

as ex world class runner ,was in shape 2h8 in 90s ,coaching now/still fit ,pretty good in physiology &biomechanic ,if she can make top 10 it s big achievment ,i cant explain now ,after her race i will .Even she worked w/nutritionistS i believe she /they missed something important will mention after RACE/ marathon,GOOD LUCK.ps :i predicted winners at berlin marathon16 ,&londonmarathon

driss dacha wrote:

as ex world class runner ,was in shape 2h8 in 90s ,coaching now/still fit ,pretty good in physiology &biomechanic ,if she can make top 10 it s big achievment ,i cant explain now ,after her race i will .Even she worked w/nutritionistS i believe she /they missed something important will mention after RACE/ marathon,GOOD LUCK.ps :i predicted winners at berlin marathon16 ,&londonmarathon

I thought your PR was 2:11, not 2:08, Driss?

And do you agree that El G was doped?

Followed by two loses. Appear to be on two different trajectories.

Suuure wrote:

Followed by two loses. Appear to be on two different trajectories.

Shalane has beaten Desi when she pushes the pace. She has experimented with other ways to race a marathon and now needs to go back to pressing early.

Do you believe that Desi could have run with Shalane in the San Diego Rock and Roll Half or the BAA 10k? Of course not.

When Shalane runs from the front she is a different runner.

I agree that Desi will beat Shalane if Shalane doesn't set the pace.

I think he meant that he was in 2:08 shape, but it's unclear.

Marblehead Pride wrote:

Suuure wrote:

When us the last time she has beaten Desi in a Marathon? It's not Amy she has to worry about.

2014 Boston Marathon when she was aggressive and pushed the pace.

That is a good point. The way she ran Boston in 2014 was so gutsy. I think if she runs that sort of race, it is her only shot at gold, but also makes her shot at a medal very high.

I would be willing to put $100 on Desi medalling in Rio. That is all.

Loved the board shorts at the SF marathon, Driss. Stay cool.

UCI XC wrote:

I think he meant that he was in 2:08 shape, but it's unclear.

That's really wonderful. I'm in 3:15 mile shape, you know. I just choose not to go out and run it. But I'll go ahead and list it when I make an argument here on LRC.

Shalane does not have the courage to race like that in a championship style race. She is an incredible talent but is afraid of competition. Just watch. She will run amongst the leaders and fall apart over the last 10k.

Remember Fuhrman wrote:

Shalane does not have the courage to race like that in a championship style race. She is an incredible talent but is afraid of competition. Just watch. She will run amongst the leaders and fall apart over the last 10k.

This. I'm rooting for her 100% but I think she has zero chance of placing unless she's been on a steady IV drip of EPO since the trials.

While I would love to see Shalane on the podium, I'm concerned by her struggle to hold things together in the Olympic Trials. She still managed to qualify, but that just didn't seem to me like the performance of a medal contender. I think Amy Cragg has a shot if she has a great day. But I think Desi could really surprise a lot of people and pull off a Meb. She runs her own races and is skilled at coming from behind in the late stages when others are suffering, which is a good way to sneak onto that medal podium, if not win the race outright.

Regardless, I think this is a wonderful group of marathoners we've fielded, and we have our best shot at a medal since Deena in '04.

Marblehead Pride wrote:

If Shalane has the confidence to race to her strength, she will win in Rio. She has proven her fitness level over the past 2 months.

SHE NEEDS TO RACE THE SAME WAY.

If she buries herself in the front pack for the first half of the race, she will lose. She needs to race in the same fashion as she has over the last 2 months. Changing her game will not produce success as she has not been a proven finisher. Go to the front and bury the field like she did to Amy over the past 2 months.

Shalane, Please race with your heart. Be confident in your fitness and take it to the world.

Did you not watch Boston in 2014??

Going for Gold is too risky, she needs to hang with the pack and make a move with 5 miles to go

I'd rather her get Bronze than blow up and get 12th