Who all would you be surprised to see lose in Rio?

Mo is not a lock.

USA Women's water polo team. LOCK.

The Chinese Synchronized Swimming team. Shouldn't even bother having the competition.

EATON

JackDunlopTheRunner wrote:

Locks:

Bolt

Centro

Rupp

Semenya

Dibaba

Mo No Lock wrote:

Mo is not a lock.

You better believe he is. He's toyed with the field in every 5k/10k he's run this summer.

Runners I'd be shocked to see lose:

1. Kipchoge

2. Rudisha (unless it rains!!!!!!!!!!!!)

3. Mo

4. Bolt (in the 100, he isn't losing the 200)

While the marathon is kind of a toss up any time it is run in questionable conditions, Kipchoge has my vote.

Devil Dog wrote:

Mo No Lock wrote:

Mo is not a lock.

You better believe he is. He's toyed with the field in every 5k/10k he's run this summer.

So, his loses were intentional. Psyching out the competition.

Has Semenya stated intent to run the 400? If so, Felix isn't a lock.

Any event for Bolt (though the 100m could be risky)

Semenya

Mo 10000m

Ennis-Hill

Kenyans in the steeplechase

US men's basketball.

Mope Dealer wrote:

Any event for Bolt (though the 100m could be risky)

Semenya

Mo 10000m

Ennis-Hill

Kenyans in the steeplechase

Really? I always think that Mo is more 'vulnerable' in the 10k than 5.

I think Bolt is very vulnerable in the 100

As is Mo in the 10,000--if Kamworor gets trampled off the line, it's effing OVER!

Agree with Semenya and Ayana, but we have no idea what's going on with Dibaba and I don't think 5 seconds in 5 weeks is the universal standard for 1500 improvement.

Rudisha is not the Rudisha of '11-'12, but history is on his side

Kipchoge (along with Eaton) seems like the most level-headed, consistent person in track and field, though the marathon is a long, hot, humid, difficult, inconsistent race.

Well I wouldn't say that there are any locks per se.

However I think you're too confident with your list:

1) Bolt will have a very rough time in the 100m and probably won't win.

2) Kiprop has been relatively consistent in the global stage but he can be unpredictable (in a bad way) as he's shown in diamond league events

3) Dibaba is now probably off the juice after the recent events

Ayana and Semenya are close to locks no doubt.

From statistics alone, little Kipruto the Steeplechaser is undoubtedly the dominant performer in track this year and as close as you can get to a lock.

He handles the pressure well, isn't afraid to run and is consistent year round.

He's also the Diamond League winner (5/5 should do it I suppose), and will likely have an Olympic Gold and sub 8 clocking this year.

If I was a rich guy I would bet 10k on Kipruto just for fun, odds are likely better than a coin toss.

going down down down wrote:

Has Semenya stated intent to run the 400? If so, Felix isn't a lock.

Hahaha! You can't be serious right!? A healthy Felix will destroy semenya. Felix has the pedigree and experience (49 open, 47 mid 4x4 split!). In all honesty I'll be surprised if Felix doesn't run 48 high.

Semenya has a low 51 pb which is why it can run 1:55 with ease. Semenya may run low 50 if it makes the finals.

I wouldn't even consider Dibaba the favorite in the 1500. I expect Faith Kipyegon to beat her.

And I can't say what Semenya might do in the 400, but I expect Felix to lose to Miller from the Bahamas anyway.

Obviously, the biggest T&F favorite in Rio is Eaton. Along with Semenya in the 800.

C.Kipruto can only win if he pushes sub 8 pace at the get-go. No way is he going to outkick a healthy kemboi if the pace is slow.

Gwen Jorgensen is nearly a lock in the triathalon.

Dalilah Muhammed should have no problems.

Sadly, Semenya is the biggest lock.

He can win either way, no matter the pace. He has a fierce kick too, but probably will be interested in sub 8:10 to string things early.

A possible fall/tripping could be more threatening than Kemboi in my opinion.